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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 18th Dec 2022, 21:54
  #12721 (permalink)  
 
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Does anyone know the relative proportions of ALCM attacks vs those launched from ships and subs ?
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Old 18th Dec 2022, 23:07
  #12722 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Another Russian oil and gas facility on fire…their cigarette disposal record is terrible



https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/16...Coub-AssQsAAAA
3 bangs in 14 days? They need to implement an SMS...
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Old 18th Dec 2022, 23:43
  #12723 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Girkin says the defeat of Russia will see him being hanged in Kyiv, meanwhile the Russian authorities are leading the country into a catastrophe...
Hand himself over to the ICC or war crimes tribunal. They no longer have the death penalty
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 02:20
  #12724 (permalink)  
 
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If RF is turning off the lights in Kyiv, it's only fair for UAF to turn off the lights in Moscow. Some good ol' boys did serious damage to two North Carolina substations with firearms.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/cha...tations-attack

If it takes a long time to replace transformers in the US and UKR, it may be considerably longer in RU.
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 03:11
  #12725 (permalink)  
 
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However you cut this cake, Putin cannot win.

He can stretch it out, sure, but in case he's forgotten, the word is 'stalemate' (at best). Even if he pushes Belarus into joining the war, even if he tries to hang onto the lands he ordered grabbing, they and their breakaway minority russophiles will still be a target forever. By plunging in, he has simply expanded the Donbass quagmire.

Nice try Putin, but no bananas.
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 05:57
  #12726 (permalink)  
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“Human Life Has No Value There“: Baltic Counterintelligence Officers Speak Candidly About Russian Cruelty

The Estonian weekly Eesti Ekspress interviewed the heads and several employees of Estonia’s, Latvia’s, and Lithuania’s state security agencies. This is what they had to say regarding Russia.
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 07:48
  #12727 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
“Human Life Has No Value There“: Baltic Counterintelligence Officers Speak Candidly About Russian Cruelty

The Estonian weekly Eesti Ekspress interviewed the heads and several employees of Estonia’s, Latvia’s, and Lithuania’s state security agencies. This is what they had to say regarding Russia.
Thanks for that. A very close family member once took me to a castle in the Baltic. Just as we were leaving the family farmhouse, a conversation with an aged relative became very animated. I didn't understand a word but I knew to keep quiet and wait until we were alone in the car before probing what had been discussed.

Back in WW2, the Nazis rolled into town. They didn't cause too much trouble, they even arranged dinners and dances etc. When the Soviets arrived, it was hell on earth. Families who owned land, factories or held senior positions in society were sent off to build the road of bones in Siberia. Teachers, doctors, lawyers etc. were rounded up and held in the castle including members of the family. When the Russians had finished torturing, raping and mutilating their captives, they were thrown into the castle well and machine gunned. A few grenades finished the job but in reality, the remaining survivors were left to die. A family member was a victim.

In the corner of the castle courtyard, we found where the well was located. It was covered over and a commemorative plaque is set into the wall. It lists the names, ages and occupations of the victims. The relative there, named alongside the other victims. Farmers, shop owners, journalists.

To say that the Russians are hated in Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia etc. does not even begin to scratch the surface. The Russian foot soldier is no better than a feral wild animal. The Nazi's committed horrific atrocities however the Russian mentality remains the same today, albeit not on an industrial scale.
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 07:59
  #12728 (permalink)  
 
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Polish relative whose family fled during WW2 says they had Germans from one side and Russians from the other, but their family memory was that the Russians were far worse.
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 08:05
  #12729 (permalink)  
 
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Assuming there will be the rumoured general mobilisation early in the year will the Russians just follow the order or is this the tipping point for the general public to start resisting? State TV or not they have seen how they will be treated by now.
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 08:08
  #12730 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Assuming there will be the rumoured general mobilisation early in the year will the Russians just follow the order or is this the tipping point for the general public to start resisting? State TV or not they have seen how they will be treated by now.
I suggest you read Orac's article. The odds of the Russian public turning on Putin are slim to nil. The only change will come from a coup d'etat or a crushing defeat. I suspect it will have to be the latter.
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 08:14
  #12731 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
https://ekspress.delfi.ee/a/120083694

“Human Life Has No Value There“: Baltic Counterintelligence Officers Speak Candidly About Russian Cruelty

The Estonian weekly Eesti Ekspress interviewed the heads and several employees of Estonia’s, Latvia’s, and Lithuania’s state security agencies. This is what they had to say regarding Russia.
https://ekspress.delfi.ee/a/120083694
A fascinating link that needs reading by anyone who fancies that a lasting peace with Russia can be negotiated by Ukraine or the West.
Everyone who works for a Baltic counterintelligence agency asserts that nothing will change.

„In Russian schools, they teach children that the Baltic states have only been lost temporarily,“ Peeter remarks. He wraps his hands around his coffee mug before continuing. „Pushkin can’t lead a country like Russia.“ Peeter doesn’t believe anything would improve even if Aleksei Navalny were, by some miracle, to become Russia’s leader. „The mentality is the same. There would need to be a total purge, but that won’t happen.“ Russia’s youth have abandoned hope, the state apparatus is massive, protests lead nowhere, and all the West’s long-held hopes for a peaceful democratic transition are utterly naïve, overlooking Russian history, its mindset, and reality.

Just recently, Estonian Ambassador to Ukraine Kaimo Kuusk stood at the edge of the mass graves and visited the former torture chambers in Izum. He was told that the Russian torturers weren’t yokels, but spoke in elegant urban St. Petersburg or Moscow accents. Russia’s total defeat in Ukraine is the sole opportunity for change.
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 08:31
  #12732 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by B Fraser
Thanks for that. A very close family member once took me to a castle in the Baltic. Just as we were leaving the family farmhouse, a conversation with an aged relative became very animated. I didn't understand a word but I knew to keep quiet and wait until we were alone in the car before probing what had been discussed.

Back in WW2, the Nazis rolled into town. They didn't cause too much trouble, they even arranged dinners and dances etc. When the Soviets arrived, it was hell on earth. Families who owned land, factories or held senior positions in society were sent off to build the road of bones in Siberia. Teachers, doctors, lawyers etc. were rounded up and held in the castle including members of the family. When the Russians had finished torturing, raping and mutilating their captives, they were thrown into the castle well and machine gunned. A few grenades finished the job but in reality, the remaining survivors were left to die. A family member was a victim.

In the corner of the castle courtyard, we found where the well was located. It was covered over and a commemorative plaque is set into the wall. It lists the names, ages and occupations of the victims. The relative there, named alongside the other victims. Farmers, shop owners, journalists.

To say that the Russians are hated in Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia etc. does not even begin to scratch the surface. The Russian foot soldier is no better than a feral wild animal. The Nazi's committed horrific atrocities however the Russian mentality remains the same today, albeit not on an industrial scale.

A few years ago we had a holiday in the Czech Republic, then drove to the south of Poland and spent a week staying there. The Czechs were very open about their hatred of Russians, very often the word Russian was preceded with the "F" word. Very much surprised both of us just how hated Russia was. That was about 15 years ago now, so before the current Russian regime really got going.

Many of the Poles we met felt the same, but were more muted in their hatred for Russians, most of the time it only surfaced whenever my (rather poor) Polish pronunciation was too close to the Russian pronunciation of some words, which would produce a frown and slight correction a lot of the time.

When my grandfather was in Russia in 1917 (as a flying instructor - not fighting) he told us grandchildren that the Russians were brutal with little regard for human life. At the time I thought his views were coloured by the appalling losses the Russians suffered. I'm now coming around to the view that brutality has become engrained into the psyche of many Russians over the decades.
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 09:24
  #12733 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The administration of Sakhalin region in the Russian Far East has ordered the heads of local municipalities to withdraw exemptions from government employees, making them eligible for mobilisation. This is another sign of an imminent second mobilisation drive….
The supposedly planned general offensive by RU in the winter by new mobiks is just waste of human lives. Russian lives, to be specific.

They already sent 190000 trained and best equipped troops a year ago against Ukrainians that were badly prepared for it and by fall those 190000 were so consumed that 300000 civilians needed to be mobilized. Now they are in a position that they need hundreds of thousands mobiks MORE since those 300k didn't do the trick.
But the difference is that now the Ukrainians have prepared their defences in depth and played war games eg in the northern border to overcome the enemy in a fashionly manner. The Ukrainians have means to affect in RU logistic chains far behind the lines (they've already hit 500km behind the lines so no railway junction or storage facility is safe). This means that the big winter offensive is lacking fire support, rations, movement etc. The adage is that RU armed forces is only able to act max 150km from nearest railroad track. That seems to be the reason they are so adamant on Bakhmut, they really need the railroad junction there. They can't keep fighting with the trucks as there is nowhere near enough of those.
And at the same time Ukraine is receiveing more and better western weapons and training to use those. And winter gear. And much more.

Coming back to the russian mobilization 2.0;
Those 300k mobiks are poorly trained as the trainers were already sent to war in the summer. Now who is going to train these new mobiks form the class of Jan '23?
Those 300k mobiks received poor equipment, bad food and rubbish winter gear. What are the next x00k mobiks going to receive?
Are the new batches going to throw themselves as light infantry without proper training and in poor kits against battle hardened Ukrainians with in depth defence and modern western kit?
While RU wastes their missiles and drones against civilian targets, the Ukrainians can focus on their war efforts strengthening their defences (reminds me of the Luftwaffe starting to bomb cities instead of RAF airfields....)

Just looking at what is happening in Bakhmut gives an idea what is coming up, Mindless massacre. The Ukrainians will take hit as well, no doubt, but the russki mobiks... oh dear.
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 09:53
  #12734 (permalink)  
 
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Yes, that was a good read. (My iPhone gave it to me in English, but not so the PC.)
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 10:10
  #12735 (permalink)  
 
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They cant be throwing one of the aperartus of state security into the a meat grinder


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Old 19th Dec 2022, 10:52
  #12736 (permalink)  
 
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Possibly he plans to use the police for ‘peace-keeping’ duties in the stolen oblasts, freeing up soldiers for the mincer front lines?
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 11:06
  #12737 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The administration of Sakhalin region in the Russian Far East has ordered the heads of local municipalities to withdraw exemptions from government employees, making them eligible for mobilisation. This is another sign of an imminent second mobilisation drive….
Maybe they are just getting nervous about Japan taking advantage of a severely weakened Russia and executing a Pearl Harbour MkII on Vladivostok. Then taking back the Kuril Islands.
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 11:08
  #12738 (permalink)  
 
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Back in WW2, the Nazis rolled into town. They didn't cause too much trouble,”

I daresay the Jews who lived in town might disagree a bit
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 15:16
  #12739 (permalink)  
 
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Nazis were somewhat specific in their genocidal behaviour. Russkies murdered, raped and sent to gulags anyone for any given reason and did it for centuries before ww2 and for 50 years after. Hence the russkies are not much appreciated in the bordering countries.
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Old 19th Dec 2022, 15:17
  #12740 (permalink)  
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If we could drift back towards matters military and/or aviation, please.
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