Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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Today 3 Russian males, and one female was arrested in Norways Nordland provice (In Mosjøen, about half way between Ørland and Bodø air bases for those familitar.) for taking photpraghs of prohibited military installations.
No drones this time, but much camera gear and a lot of image material seized.
No drones this time, but much camera gear and a lot of image material seized.
Abandoned Russian tank, it always gets me that they leave them running and in gear…… unless the dead driver is still in it.
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Lots of complaints about the lack of AA over Kyiv etc, but rather like the RAF over Dunkirk, I would imagine they are working further away from the cities to prevent them getting through, so the local populace do not see any defence. The trouble with shooting them down over the city is they will still inflict casualties or damage where they are brought down.
They really need to ability to locate and hit the launch sites because a lot of the transportation system to the front lines rely on power.
They also need the ability to strike at Russia’s power supplies and finish off the Bridge plus the fleet and it’s stockpiles in Sevastopol that is launching missiles.
Some of the figures are scary if true.. From Dimitri
They really need to ability to locate and hit the launch sites because a lot of the transportation system to the front lines rely on power.
They also need the ability to strike at Russia’s power supplies and finish off the Bridge plus the fleet and it’s stockpiles in Sevastopol that is launching missiles.
Some of the figures are scary if true.. From Dimitri
This uses air-defense missiles a lot, such usage is not sustainable in long term. needs more AA guns, like Rheinmetall has. Even 10-15 shells from AA gun are cheaper than drone they destroy, while missiles are much more expensive.
Russia has 2400 such drones, if using 100 per day, they can continue for a month, more realistically some 2-3 months with some pauses. If they are used in front-line, it will be complicated.
G20 summit: Putin would want to create maximally favourable position before summit - which means maximum damage to energy infrastructure, minimum gas suppleis to, possibly conquering new territories and attack attempt on Kyiv.
Last edited by NutLoose; 18th Oct 2022 at 03:19.
So is providing A-10s with its Gatling gun the solution? Or just set up a screen of Phalanxes on the approaches to Kyiv and other major cities? The 21st Century solution to the AA barrier that protected London during the V1 Blitz. I wish the media would stop referring to the drones as "kamikaze". They are unmanned so no-one is giving up their life to get the thing onto its target. Putin has provided yet more evidence that he is the true Nazi in this conflict.
While usually a supporter for the A-10 for almost anything from opening up coke cans to garbage disposal, not sure that a GAU-8 is a desirable solution for plinking an oversized paper plane. There are a lot of T/Props and even types the Ukrainians have for training that could do with a mini gun under the wing or twin .50s in the nose to go plinking. COIN may be a better option. Anything from an OV-10 on up would be a reasonable gun slinger. Put it down as A-A practice, but it is a Day-VFR solution only, so C-RAM units would be a better bet.
Last edited by fdr; 18th Oct 2022 at 03:54.
Haemorrhoids
Undoubtedly Lukashenko is able to bleat away about actions perceived or real from Ukraine, but I seem to recall, yes, I am sure I recall distinctly, that Russia invaded Ukraine from Belarus.
Pretty much, when it comes to moral high ground, Lukashenko is circling the drain. A tawdry business. Lukashenko is due some karma at some point, with his oppression of the people of Belarus, and his obsequiousness to Vlad.
There may be a time soon where the UN collective defence justification comes to play, and Belarus conducting any further attack from their soil would be the correct point in time to undertake unilateral Art 51 collective defence and stop Lukashenko before he becomes a bowel obstruction to Vlad. Now, countervailing argument is, Belarus crossing the border will be a training day for Ukraine, and has a high probability of the conclusion of the sordid tale of Mrs Lukasheno's little boy Al's journey of self fulfilment as a pavement pizza.
Lukashenko is playing a dangerous game in pulling the nose hairs of Ukraine, he gives casus belli for NATO to assist Ukraine west of the Dneiper, which complicates Mad Vlads plan. Vlad hitting a UN members troops accidentally or others would be Russia's escalation, not the UN countries.
UN Charter Article 51
Pretty much, when it comes to moral high ground, Lukashenko is circling the drain. A tawdry business. Lukashenko is due some karma at some point, with his oppression of the people of Belarus, and his obsequiousness to Vlad.
There may be a time soon where the UN collective defence justification comes to play, and Belarus conducting any further attack from their soil would be the correct point in time to undertake unilateral Art 51 collective defence and stop Lukashenko before he becomes a bowel obstruction to Vlad. Now, countervailing argument is, Belarus crossing the border will be a training day for Ukraine, and has a high probability of the conclusion of the sordid tale of Mrs Lukasheno's little boy Al's journey of self fulfilment as a pavement pizza.
Lukashenko is playing a dangerous game in pulling the nose hairs of Ukraine, he gives casus belli for NATO to assist Ukraine west of the Dneiper, which complicates Mad Vlads plan. Vlad hitting a UN members troops accidentally or others would be Russia's escalation, not the UN countries.
UN Charter Article 51
Spoiler
Only half a speed-brake
Belarus’s latest statement come threat..
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/
That Twitter account looks more like a cheap copycat wannabe of
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3
and Estonian Dmitri's @wartranslated https://twitter.com/wartranslated project.
Both reasonably dependable as opposed to all the red flags from the quoted one.
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War Monitor
Current power outages in — Kyiv — Zhytomyr — Ivano-Frankivsk — Dnepropetrovsk – Dnipropetrovsk region (Sinelnikovo, Pavlograd) — Kharkov
Current power outages in — Kyiv — Zhytomyr — Ivano-Frankivsk — Dnepropetrovsk – Dnipropetrovsk region (Sinelnikovo, Pavlograd) — Kharkov
Water supply shortage reported in: — Zhytomyr — Ivano-Frankivsk — Dnepropetrovsk — Dnepropetrovsk region (Pavlograd)
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Unanswered questions.
How much to replace/ stocks already transferred to Ukraine. How much to send to Ukraine. How much to increase stocks to realistic war levels.
US Senate wants the Pentagon to buy:
• 750,000 XM1128 / XM1123
• 1,000 M777
• 700 (!) M142 HIMARS
• 100,000 GMLRS
• 20,000 Stinger
• 25,000 Javelin
• 30,000 Hellfire
• 36,000 AGM-179
• 1,000 Harpoon
• 800 NSM
• 10,000 Patriot PAC-3
• 6,000 (!) ATACMS
• 20,000 AMRAAM
How much to replace/ stocks already transferred to Ukraine. How much to send to Ukraine. How much to increase stocks to realistic war levels.
US Senate wants the Pentagon to buy:
• 750,000 XM1128 / XM1123
• 1,000 M777
• 700 (!) M142 HIMARS
• 100,000 GMLRS
• 20,000 Stinger
• 25,000 Javelin
• 30,000 Hellfire
• 36,000 AGM-179
• 1,000 Harpoon
• 800 NSM
• 10,000 Patriot PAC-3
• 6,000 (!) ATACMS
• 20,000 AMRAAM
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Ukraines consensus on the Belarus military capability.
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/w...aine-4563.html
Their summing up
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/w...aine-4563.html
Their summing up
The "core" of the strike group (if there is a new offensive from Belarus) will be the Belarusian army. The existing set of forces will be enough to form only one "army corps" level connection. And this circumstance dictates two options for the development of events.
Either the strike group of the Kremlin led by the Belarusian army will be able to rapidly break through on one part of the front, but then even more rapidly retreat back. Or the russian generals will "smear" their strike group along the wide front line, and then the end of the Belarusian army in Ukraine will be even more inglorious. According to the example of how russia’s 3rd Army Corps was "wiped out" literally in a month of fighting, during the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kharkiv Oblast in September 2022.
Either the strike group of the Kremlin led by the Belarusian army will be able to rapidly break through on one part of the front, but then even more rapidly retreat back. Or the russian generals will "smear" their strike group along the wide front line, and then the end of the Belarusian army in Ukraine will be even more inglorious. According to the example of how russia’s 3rd Army Corps was "wiped out" literally in a month of fighting, during the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kharkiv Oblast in September 2022.
I haven't seen any reports about where the drones used against Kyiv were launched from, presumably from Russian territory to the north?
Ukraine's air defences certainly have their work cut out dealing with these - tricky targets to detect and bring down. Radar laid triple-A definitely seems like the way to do, but do they try and defend the entirety of each city or just the critical infrastructure?
Ukraine's air defences certainly have their work cut out dealing with these - tricky targets to detect and bring down. Radar laid triple-A definitely seems like the way to do, but do they try and defend the entirety of each city or just the critical infrastructure?
I haven't seen any reports about where the drones used against Kyiv were launched from, presumably from Russian territory to the north?
Ukraine's air defences certainly have their work cut out dealing with these - tricky targets to detect and bring down. Radar laid triple-A definitely seems like the way to do, but do they try and defend the entirety of each city or just the critical infrastructure?
Ukraine's air defences certainly have their work cut out dealing with these - tricky targets to detect and bring down. Radar laid triple-A definitely seems like the way to do, but do they try and defend the entirety of each city or just the critical infrastructure?
In addition to ground defences, I wonder if some form of adhoc aerial defence could be mustered e.g. by equipping some light aircraft (helos?) with door-mounted LMGs, vectored by Uke AD?
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I am sorry but this is a one legged ass kicking, they should be provided with the ability to hit Moscow and Russia's power supplies.
Guardian
Summary of the day so far …
Guardian
Russia-Ukraine war live: Zelenskiy says 30% of Ukraine’s power stations destroyed in past eight days after fresh Russian strikes
Summary of the day so far …
- Russian forces carried out new airstrikes on Ukrainian energy facilities on Tuesday, causing several explosions in an area of northern Kyiv where there is a thermal power station. Dnipro, Mykolaiv and Zhytomyr were also targets.
- City mayor Vitali Klitschko said today’s attack was on “critical infrastructure” in northern Kyiv, and urged resident to conserve electricity and stockpile drinking water.
- Serhiy Sukhomlyn, mayor of Zhytomyr said “the city has no light or water at the moment. Hospitals are on back-up power.”
- In Mykolaiv, a Russian missile struck an apartment building. The missile completely destroyed one wing of the building in the downtown area, leaving a massive crater. A fire crew pulled the dead body of a man from the rubble, a witness said.
- Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said: “Since 10 October, 30% of Ukraine’s power stations have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country”. Describing the Russian strikes on power supplies as “another kind of Russian terrorist attacks”, Zelenskiy said there was “no space left for negotiations with Putin’s regime”.
- The death toll from yesterday’s attack on a central district of Kyiv has risen to five. Klitschko said the body of another resident – an elderly woman – had been pulled from the rubble of a building destroyed in an explosion.
- Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that Moscow has “no information” on whether Iranian-made “kamikaze” drones were used in large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities this week.
- Oleh Synyehubov, the governor of Kharkiv, said on “Tuesday at around 8.30am, the enemy launched eight rockets at Kharkiv from the Russian city of Belgorod” but there were no casualties.
- Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Russia’s Belgorod region, said a man has been injured after Ukrainian forces shelled a railway station within Russia.
- UK defence secretary Ben Wallace has hastily cancelled an early afternoon appearance before the Commons defence committee for an urgent trip to Washington DC, prompting speculation as to the purpose of the sudden visit.
Last edited by NutLoose; 18th Oct 2022 at 12:36.
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