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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 16th Dec 2022, 18:38
  #12681 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FlightDetent
On a spiritual note: A favourable coincidence, spell of good luck, is no proof of a higer power. A streak of those, on the other hand...

Are there any relavant data what is the 'natural background' frequency for shopping mall and warehouse fires in RUS (compared against recent media reports)?
I am unable to provide any statistical data however Russia does have considerable "form" in this area. There was a major incident in 1984 involving the main Northern Fleet storage area. Searching for "Severomorsk disaster" will provide further detail.

YS
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 19:41
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
I think that a further proliferation of "lit cigarettes dropping into flammable things at various infrastructure sites" is a more likely path forward.
I have a suspicion (yes, this is speculation) that some of those 'accidents' have had help in getting the holes in the cheese to line up.

I very much share your view. Assisting acts of sabotage within Russia, or giving support to the various anti-Putin partisan groups within the country, as long as it can be done with "plausible deniability" is both massively less risky for NATO, as well as being an awful lot less costly, both in terms of materiel and, perhaps more importantly, wasting a lot of time and effort in dealing with the media and political fallout of more direct assistance to Ukraine.

What we do not know, and it is very much for the best if it stays that way, is how strong the opposition is to Putin within Russia. We know that around a million Russians, mostly younger people, have left for places like Georgia and Uzbekistan. What we do not know, and it's probably best not to speculate about, is how many there are within Russia seeking to both stop the war with Ukraine and overthrow Putin and his cronies.

There is plenty of evidence that Putin feels very threatened, the use of body doubles, the crazy measures he takes when appearing in public, the rent-a-crowd faces that appear in many of his PR videos/photos (that are clearly pro-Putin stooges). That alone suggest either that he is suffering from some sort of delusional disorder, or, I think more likely, he knows the threat to his life, even within secure places in Russia, is very high.

My personal prediction is that we will see another Russian revolution within the next 12 months, perhaps within 6 months. The outcome of that is, in my humble view, almost impossible to predict, and may well not be beneficial for anyone in the West, including, perhaps, Ukraine. My grandfather got caught up in the last Russian revolution, he was in Russia with the RFC as a flying instructor in 1917. Got out by the skin of his teeth before the Bolsheviks over-ran the place.
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 20:12
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I applaude any part of russian infrastructure burning or blowing up. One however must remember that the west is at war with'em, so if similar starts to occur our side ...
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 23:04
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
We know that around a million Russians, mostly younger people, have left for places like Georgia and Uzbekistan.
I would imagine that there's a significant element of 'self preservation' within those ranks that should not be counted as anti Putin sadly.
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 02:21
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Originally Posted by Gargleblaster
I applaude any part of russian infrastructure burning or blowing up. One however must remember that the west is at war with'em, so if similar starts to occur our side ...
Iím simply an interested observer without direct knowledge of the order of battle, but if Ukraineís western friends have knowledge of where the Russian missile strikes originate, itís time to help Ukraine target and destroy them.

This has gone too far, and the notion that striking targets on Russian soil is an unjustified escalation is total BS. Russian criminal attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine need to be answered with decisive measures.
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 03:10
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Agreeing with GN above.

If someone could have immediately taken out the crew that shot down Malaysia MH17 in 2014, for example, few would have cried over their deaths, regardless of their nationality or affiliation. Sadly, many of the missiles targeting Ukraine are being fired from distant submarines, or aircraft high above the Caspian Sea.
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 04:40
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
I’m simply an interested observer without direct knowledge of the order of battle, but if Ukraine’s western friends have knowledge of where the Russian missile strikes originate, it’s time to help Ukraine target and destroy them.

This has gone too far, and the notion that striking targets on Russian soil is an unjustified escalation is total BS. Russian criminal attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine need to be answered with decisive measures.
I think that is why they hit the airfields as the bombers fly down Russia and launch from the Sea of Azov / the Black Sea, the west hitting the bombers would drag us into WW3 though.
I agree giving them the weapons to destroy those bombers in flight or on the ground would would be ideal. In the air would be better out over the sea as it also removes a crew and as with the fleet As in the sea going vessels it reduced the threat by removing their use from the area.

Personally the only way to stand up to a bully is to hit him back and the present situation is like a one legged ass kicking contest, as abhorrent as it is, I would start hitting Russia’s electrical and gas infrastructure especially around the likes of Moscow and say it will remain in effect until they desist hitting Ukraines.

Last edited by NutLoose; 17th Dec 2022 at 04:53.
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 05:27
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Putin sees himself as the only force keeping the hotheads in check. "We don't want people to think we are mad".
But someone needs a really hard kick in the trouser department, and the sooner the better.
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 10:31
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
Iím simply an interested observer without direct knowledge of the order of battle, but if Ukraineís western friends have knowledge of where the Russian missile strikes originate, itís time to help Ukraine target and destroy them.

This has gone too far, and the notion that striking targets on Russian soil is an unjustified escalation is total BS. Russian criminal attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine need to be answered with decisive measures.
Western politicians shrinking from hard decisions is what has allowed it to go this far, when the lessons learned time and again on how to deal with bullies sems to have been lost in wishful thinking. Ostriches don't win wars and it is as frustrating as hell watchng this unfold with "us" doing so little to stop it.
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 11:06
  #12690 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Agreeing with GN above.

If someone could have immediately taken out the crew that shot down Malaysia MH17 in 2014, for example, few would have cried over their deaths, regardless of their nationality or affiliation. Sadly, many of the missiles targeting Ukraine are being fired from distant submarines, or aircraft high above the Caspian Sea.
There are other ways for the West to strike back. With overwhelming strikes on Putins forces holding the line, behind the line and anywhere he chooses to move. That's if the West has that capability of course.
By destroying the bridge in Crimea and other high profile targets. By destroying anything that moves on sea, air and land.
Of course that's escalation and may result in retaliatory (conventional not necessarily nuclear) strikes. Are we ready to take those losses ourselves?
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 14:10
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It is in the interests of the UK (and all NATO countries) that Ukraine is supplied with everything it needs

a) to maintain their nations infrastructure to counter the criminal actions of Russia, and

b) to enable their armed forces to eject the Russian and mercenary forces from their territory, including Crimea.

Their is no point n any 'negotiated settlement' - Putins' previous actions have shown complete disrespect for any agreement.

If Russia succeeds in expanding it's borders by force now, it will not stop.
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 15:03
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There's a really good article in the New York Times today, with an in depth analysis of the many Russian actions and errors, well worth the (long) read. The NYT if firewalled but allows free viewing of, I think, 10 articles a month. This one is a must read.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/....html#blunders

Last edited by Winemaker; 17th Dec 2022 at 17:27.
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 17:04
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An interesting read:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...mes-2022-12-16
IS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE MILITARY OR CIVILIAN?

Power infrastructure has long been considered a valid military objective as long as it supports an enemy army's activities, even if the system also supports the civilian population, writes military law expert Michael Schmitt in the Articles of War blog run by the Lieber Institute for Law & Warfare at the United States Military Academy West Point.

As Russia's strikes on the power infrastructure have intensified, it seems increasingly unlikely that its armed forces can name a "definite" military benefit for each attack.

"Simply put, Russian forces are almost certainly striking many targets that do not qualify as military objectives," Schmitt argues.

Russia says it attacks military targets including energy infrastructure.
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 17:29
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Most of the fires hitting shopping centres, factories and military storage are little more than insurance scams. Sanctions are biting the oligarchs have little to sell so the shops are empty, the factories can't manufacture ditto and military storage facilities burn as a convenient way of hiding the fact that the equipment has long gone so it saves having to answer embarrassing questions. So none of it has a political dimension.
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 18:55
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Prangster , I think you have revealed a whole new aspect to the story. Very astute Probably true.
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 19:03
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
(That is not to say as individuals they aren't thoroughly good people), they have had 100years of being brainwashed into the thought that Mother Russia is the one and only thing of importance. The people believe their President has their back and that he will do whatever it takes to protect them and more importantly Mother Russia.
I agree that they think Mother Russia is the most important thing. But they don't expect anything for themselves individually. (Edit: A majority of) The Russians believe that they have to back the president, and that they must do whatever he asks from them, no matter how bad it's for themselves. They can be severely mistreated and still do the work. That makes Russia resilient, even if hundreds of thousands die. A bit like Hitler's Germany.

Last edited by thf; 17th Dec 2022 at 19:05. Reason: Qualification
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 19:35
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Prangster
Yes, I think there's a valid element there in some of the instances, but I don't think all of them.

thf
Possibly valid for the older Russians. The new generation is a lot more savvy!
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 19:50
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Originally Posted by FUMR
thf
Possibly valid for the older Russians. The new generation is a lot more savvy!
Moscow & St. Petersburg? Probably. Elsewhere, I am not so sure.
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Old 17th Dec 2022, 22:35
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
I'm simply an interested observer without direct knowledge of the order of battle, but if Ukraine's western friends have knowledge of where the Russian missile strikes originate, it's time to help Ukraine target and destroy them.

This has gone too far, and the notion that striking targets on Russian soil is an unjustified escalation is total BS. Russian criminal attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine need to be answered with decisive measures.
I agree that sooner or later Ukraine is going to have to be given the wherewithal (and approval) to hit military targets on Russian soil.

It might even be that just the threat of being able to do that turns out to be enough to stop Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure (which, arguably, could be classed as a war crime).
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Old 18th Dec 2022, 08:29
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They can certainly hit Russia in order to defend themselves.
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