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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 11th Nov 2022, 22:38
  #11521 (permalink)  
fdr
 
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
That surely is not right?
How can it be a breach of GC to tell your defeated troops to try to save themselves any way they can?
Surely that would also imply that an escaping PoW in civvies is beyond the GC? Numerous precedents in the European none-too distant past would suggest otherwise...
...Slava Ukraini.

ML2, refer #11498 for some context. Depends.

Originally Posted by meleagertoo

Also, before getting too euphoric about Ukraine's alleged "Great Victory" we should wait a prudent period before acknowleging this not so much a UKR 'victory' (which it isn't purely by force of arms) rather then a RUS strategic withdrawal - and pause to see where the status quo lies in a few days or week's time. Russia seldom cedes territory without a strategic plan and UKR will have great trouble following them across the river while RUS will remain able to bombard from the other side. Kherson may yet be pulverised. Ley's not let out enthuisan get the better of us. The RUS have a plan I suspect, for once. I'd be thilled if they did not but it's a bit premature to be crowing just yet.
Time will tell, and if all goes well perhaps another bridge properly dropped might even give hope for Crimea to return to civilisation.

My point is...
as we say in Norfolk, 'howd you haard bor..." (ie, don't be too hasty, lad)
Slava Ukraini.
Maybe, It is also due to the strategy of Ukraine and their successful tactics in the field. Ukraine sucked forces to Kherson, and then took the opportunity to hook around the North AO instead of the South, physically & morally defeating the forces there. Ukraine has held the center against the increasingly irrational repetitive attacks by the mercenaries 10 miles behind the criminal troops 1 mile behind the hapless conscripts armed with M-N 1892's, cardboard body armour, and 1.5L of water per 4 troops per 2 days. Vlad's corruption coming home to roost.

I would argue the evacuation of Kherson, (with some caution) is a tactical rout of RuZZian forces after their supply was compromised through the defence against the invaders by Ukraine. Would not be giving RuZZia credit for strategy that was forced upon them by the Ukrainians tactical interdiction in the field. Ukraine has achieved remarkable results from one, two, three, four, a number of factors: Ukraine is fighting an existential threat, which Russia is and has been to all of its neighbours historically. Russia has always got a free pass due to the ostensible paranoia that drives them, but the truth is, Russia is an aggressive state run historically by kings and autocrats, and the lack of national confidence in being able to manage their own affairs without authoritarian guidance permits acts of lunacy as national policy. Ukraine is invested in success, Russia is invested in rhetoric and adulation or else, of a criminal leadership. Russian troops are bereft of much of the glossy Potemkin like brochures of weapon systems, they have been sold a lie. Russia's leadership was fearful, with good reason of the fragility of their tenure (and wary of 6 floor windows) if they brought home the reality of the war to the deceived public. The truth is starting to be forced out, not due to an epiphany of Russian leadership, but from the defence by Ukraine, and the undeniable consequences in the field. "who are ya gonna believe, me or your lying eyes... "

Russia gets an "F" for management, for application, for motivation, for logistics, for weapon design, for training, for tactical competency.

Russia gets an "A" for assistance in destruction and demilitarisation of Russias military.

The UN gets an "F", for, well nothing at all.

The world gets a "C" for belatedly supporting a committed defender of it's own sovereignty, which is what the UN is supposed top do but doesn't. They get a "D+" for timeliness

Time to get one of the Baltic and Scandinavian lady Prime Ministers to be the UN SG, at least there would bet some back bone then.
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Old 11th Nov 2022, 23:50
  #11522 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
Simply this: if a soldiers trades his uniform for civilian attire, he is no longer protected by the GC as a belligerent, can be shot as a spy, etc. What they should do is keep the uniform and surrender, become POW, and as such covered by the GC.
Not true yes he not protected by the geneva convention but is still protected by the rule of law in ukraine and summary execution is still illegal, if he was resist arrest than military / police could use lethal force. But to take someone put them against and kill them would still be murder under ukrainian law
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 00:04
  #11523 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo


. Russia seldom cedes territory without a strategic plan
.
Putting Russia and "strategic plan" in the same sentence is a bit of a joke. If Russia didn't have a bad strategic plan they would have no strategic plan at all. Giving up territory to a numerically and capability inferior enemy is just a simple example of abject Military failure. There is no way to put lipstick on this pig.
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 00:19
  #11524 (permalink)  
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Next

[military content] So, luckily, and defying all reality, Russia evacuated all of its weapons and munitions across the Dneiper, darn neat trick without a viable bridge in the south, and limited traffic around the dam. But, well done. Credit where it is due, well done saving a couple of Ladas and Kamaz... the rifles, ammo, arty, tanks and other items that are designated as donations to Ukraines forces are undoubtedly received with appreciation. The troops themselves were apparently not considered to be weapons by Vlad; I think I would agree with that position.

Now Vlad wants to talk about getting' outta Dodge with his scalp intact. Would think that the window of opportunity for that is actually quite small, squandering time arguing about the shape and size of the table for holding discussions might not be wise for Vlad's undertakers underwriters.

Crossing the rubicon Dneiper by Russia to have a go2.0 at Kherson predicated on an ice road between the banks is able to be discouraged at some distance by arty and HIMARS and dumb munitions. Causing grief to an attack is not going to be that demanding... that would permit a reallocation of forces by Ukraine towards the next pressure point, which is already set up, and which would force the complete evacuation of Crimea, Zaphorizhia, and the other 2014 areas. A single route supports the eastern areas of Ukraine for the Russian invaders, the M14. If the M-14 is cut, then Russia doesn't have a game that includes Ukraine, the limited face saving that is being suggested now would be irrelevant, the Ukrainians would be able to force the removal of the invading hordes from all parts of the South, with the area adjacent to Russia being the only supportable point of the invasion that Vlad could hold on to. Losing the land bridge, and with the ability to remove Kerch at will shuts the last door of opportunity for Vlad.

That situation would make negotiations too late for Vlad, so, he may have a smaller window [no pun intended, Vlad] of opportunity than he might otherwise expect. [military content concluded]

Vlads concern about [aviation content] going flying [end aviation content] to a G-20 summit in SEA has been about being pushed onto all 4's and losing face, or being assassinated. I would think that there is a lower risk to his retirement plan outside of Russia than inside; his playmates are pretty loose and quick with the long knives and the window catches seem to be notoriously faulty in Russia.

[life choice content] Vlad may need to consider a new vocation; master strategist doesn't seem to suit so much. Gardening is good therapy for anger management. [life choice content concluded]
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 00:29
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Officially releases are coming out about the a USV drones that ukraine used to strike the black sea fleet

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ly-break-cover
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 02:40
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Satellite images showing the damage to the dam and Kherson bridges, pontoon and road.

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Old 12th Nov 2022, 08:27
  #11527 (permalink)  
 
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Russkies announce evacuation on the left bank of Dniepr.

Blowing up the dam is not likely as it would close the taps in Crimea, so what are they afraid of? Or planning?


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Old 12th Nov 2022, 08:35
  #11528 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rattman
Not true yes he not protected by the geneva convention but is still protected by the rule of law in ukraine and summary execution is still illegal, if he was resist arrest than military / police could use lethal force. But to take someone put them against and kill them would still be murder under ukrainian law
The converse in BFG Cold war.
As a MOD civvy I was subject to the Air Force Act at all times, held a Dormant Commission and a set of combats with rank badges and ID card against the day.
nobody was silly enough to give me a pistol but we did the full NBC thing.
I would have had the flimsy protection of the GC precisely because I was in uniform. Even had a number .....letter with in a drawer somewhere!
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 08:41
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In modern day infantry warfare air superiority is the key. In essence: lightweight and very mobile, very cheap drones. The thing is that in Ukraine a platoon has its own drones acting as eye in the sky giving huge advantage to the troops not to mention the grenade dropping stalkers. Now for the future, anyone coming up with an effective, portable and affordable counter drone solution will be a very rich person.


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Old 12th Nov 2022, 09:11
  #11530 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Russkies announce evacuation on the left bank of Dniepr.

Blowing up the dam is not likely as it would close the taps in Crimea, so what are they afraid of? Or planning?

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...46344446562304
Possibly no more than moving out of bombardment range? Either that or they are happy the river will hold the Ukrainians up so they can redeploy the bulk of their forces to start a counter offensive or the reinforce operations elsewhere. The build up for an assault across the river in that area would hardly go unnoticed and I would have thought it would be a major undertaking, giving time to move forces forward again into prepared defensive positions. An opposed landing would take a heavy toll on the attackers.
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 09:23
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Dam wise it appears they dropped the road sections however they might have a bit of collateral.

as for numbers I realise they will be a tad inflated, but 800 troops taken out of the game in one day, 24 tanks 34 APV and 20 assorted vehicles is a big dent in anyones capability.


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Old 12th Nov 2022, 09:40
  #11532 (permalink)  
 
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Heck they even left behind an air defence system apparently.

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Old 12th Nov 2022, 10:13
  #11533 (permalink)  
 
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Film from the dam of the dam roads being blown.


Film of the Kherson bridge being blown

]

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Old 12th Nov 2022, 10:52
  #11534 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Heck they even left behind an air defence system apparently.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...DRuZvj2pUsAAAA

Might want to check that system out, the Russians seem to have obtained a 180 turn back routine into their S-300's in recent times. Might want a long string on the trigger on launch. Of course, it could be that the S-300 system is just embarrassed about being conscripted into Russias elite service.
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 11:29
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Barking mad, the lot of them.. and copyright theft.. but if you watch it, filmed in a narrow street, maybe only about 5 or 6 rows deep but looks more with clever editing, rent a crowd again? Lots of noise, not a lot quantity wise.
Don't disagree, but not one of perhaps a hundred Russians I know would attend such an event... however there are 10++ million in Moscow (size of London) and it hosts all sorts of oddballs like anywhere else.
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 11:34
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
Possibly no more than moving out of bombardment range?
Putler hasn't cared for the civilians nor the mobiks being shot at since 2014 so why start caring for now? The rationale behind the vatniks actions have been beyond me for a long long time now.
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 11:42
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Originally Posted by flash8
Don't disagree, but not one of perhaps a hundred Russians I know would attend such an event... however there are 10++ million in Moscow (size of London) and it hosts all sorts of oddballs like anywhere else.
I am glad to see you still ok and I hope your friends are well too
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 11:57
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Just a thought, and I might have missed the answer elsewhere, how are the Russian troops in Transnistria being re-supplied?

A342
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 12:12
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Originally Posted by ACW342
Just a thought, and I might have missed the answer elsewhere, how are the Russian troops in Transnistria being re-supplied?

A342
Looting the locals seems to be Russian SOP.
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Old 12th Nov 2022, 13:44
  #11540 (permalink)  
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Russians are starting to evacuate their helicopter base in Chaplynka, due to the fact that HIMARS are now in firing range to this Russian-occupied city. The base was also an important CnC post.

The moving of gear out of the 90km GLMRS zone will continue.
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