Is Ukraine about to have a war?
How long does it take to fully mobilize the Russian Economy, Industrial Base, conscript, train, equip, feed, house, transport and sustain an additional 500,000 Russian Troops?
Then there is the small matter of raising units, establishing formations, setting up command structures, drawing from current units for Trainers, and Cadre and generate some credible sort of effectiveness.
I would suggest recent experience by the Russians does not lend itself to seeing much real success at that.
Sheer numbers. matter in a war of attrition but the matter of Will also factors into it.
One. thing for sure.....the Western Powers drag their feet and fail to get the where withal to fight with to the Ukraine Forces and the Russians can win be default...due not to the Ukraine failing to fight but the West not providing the enough of what they need to to fight with.
If that happens....WWIII is coming and it will be on the heads of the current leadership of the Western and NATO powers.
Could the ultimate winning strategy be having the Ukraine forces bleed Russian forces to the point the Russians become vulnerable to defeat later if not now.
Then there is the small matter of raising units, establishing formations, setting up command structures, drawing from current units for Trainers, and Cadre and generate some credible sort of effectiveness.
I would suggest recent experience by the Russians does not lend itself to seeing much real success at that.
Sheer numbers. matter in a war of attrition but the matter of Will also factors into it.
One. thing for sure.....the Western Powers drag their feet and fail to get the where withal to fight with to the Ukraine Forces and the Russians can win be default...due not to the Ukraine failing to fight but the West not providing the enough of what they need to to fight with.
If that happens....WWIII is coming and it will be on the heads of the current leadership of the Western and NATO powers.
Could the ultimate winning strategy be having the Ukraine forces bleed Russian forces to the point the Russians become vulnerable to defeat later if not now.
Will take many years to rebuild their army.
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Looks like ex U.K. mil trucks, 91 initially then up to 300 in total via Poroshenko, all right hand hookers, handy if the Russians try to shoot the drivers.
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So if Germany say they will send leopards to Ukraine they won’t be ready for delivery until 2024! 
So if Germany say they will send leopards to Ukraine they won’t be ready for delivery until 2024!
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...C-5Y-smugsAAAA
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...C-5Y-smugsAAAA
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
In the Belgorod oblast a Russian soldier detonated a RGD-5 grenade in a building where military were located.
Due to the explosion, a fire started and ammunition began to detonate, 3 servicemen were killed and at least 10 more were injured. -
Russian media - https://t.me/bazabazon/15385
Due to the explosion, a fire started and ammunition began to detonate, 3 servicemen were killed and at least 10 more were injured. -
Russian media - https://t.me/bazabazon/15385
Regarding the availability and sourcing of Leos, this blog post is worth reading. Finland has relatively big fleet of Leos in good condition, the issue being that being out of NATO they are needed as deterrence. However, if help is available in case of Russkies getting bad ideas, the Rheinmetall ones could on my opinion be ear marked to Finland and the Finnish 2A4's be sent to Ukraine. The Leos could be in Ukraine before winter is over.
https://corporalfrisk.com/2023/01/15/free-the-leopards/
https://corporalfrisk.com/2023/01/15/free-the-leopards/
Germany is even considering delivering Bundeswehr owned Leopards until the industry's reserve tanks can be made available.
It is quite remarkable how much Germany's conventional forces have been reduced in the context of the reunification, back then. It must have been a multinational confidential agreement, prerequisite or similar? Not much was kept of the former Cold War glory tank numbers and most were redistributed to NATO allies like Poland, Turkey and Greece.
It is quite remarkable how much Germany's conventional forces have been reduced in the context of the reunification, back then. It must have been a multinational confidential agreement, prerequisite or similar? Not much was kept of the former Cold War glory tank numbers and most were redistributed to NATO allies like Poland, Turkey and Greece.
German Defence Minister announces her resignation
Lambrecht resigns and now the question is, who replaces her. When Scholz selected her, it had nothing to do with competence but political engineering. It had to be a female ( parity of sexes in the Kabinett ), someone on the left of the party to keep that fraction happy. Unfortunately expertise and interest in the military/defence wasn't considered. Let's hope to hell it is this time, but my opinion of Scholz is pretty low, so it's far from certain. One talent he does have is ducking/ignoring criticism.
Astonishingly the Bundeswehr has reduced its tank fleet by 90%; from around 4 000 to about 350 now.
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Finland were offering but not in large quantities, and I thought Spain said their's would need refurbing?
I understand Your sentiment, but your post is misleading Spain wanted to donate ~40 L2s (reserve) They shouldn't have made the proposal Czechs and Poles wanted to buy these years ago Concluded not worth deep refit. Pile of scrap The number of combat ready L2 in Europe is ~60%.
Poland and Peru both have declined these ones even as a free gift. That’s says it all.
Poland and Peru both have declined these ones even as a free gift. That’s says it all.
Germany is even considering delivering Bundeswehr owned Leopards until the industry's reserve tanks can be made available.
It is quite remarkable how much Germany's conventional forces have been reduced in the context of the reunification, back then. It must have been a multinational confidential agreement, prerequisite or similar? Not much was kept of the former Cold War glory tank numbers and most were redistributed to NATO allies like Poland, Turkey and Greece.
It is quite remarkable how much Germany's conventional forces have been reduced in the context of the reunification, back then. It must have been a multinational confidential agreement, prerequisite or similar? Not much was kept of the former Cold War glory tank numbers and most were redistributed to NATO allies like Poland, Turkey and Greece.
The German Army was crippled from more than 4000 Leopards (of which more than 2000 Leo 2) to <250 within a few years. I can also only imagine that there was an agreement with Russia during re- unification to disarm to such an extent. There were reductions in other areas as well but not nearly to that extent.
Indeed!
The German Army was crippled from more than 4000 Leopards (of which more than 2000 Leo 2) to <250 within a few years. I can also only imagine that there was an agreement with Russia during re- unification to disarm to such an extent. There were reductions in other areas as well but not nearly to that extent.
The German Army was crippled from more than 4000 Leopards (of which more than 2000 Leo 2) to <250 within a few years. I can also only imagine that there was an agreement with Russia during re- unification to disarm to such an extent. There were reductions in other areas as well but not nearly to that extent.
In a bric-a-brac store yesterday, I idly picked up a set of Chinese sayings on a screen of bamboo sticks. The first one said, "Strike only when you are sure your enemy is weak."
Testing times have suddenly appeared as if out of nowhere. All European countries will be feeling threatened now and wanting to keep a measure of defense in reserve. What can they realistically spare up front, and would they still be able to fight in a world now reverting to long-forgotten Middle Ages savagery?
Testing times have suddenly appeared as if out of nowhere. All European countries will be feeling threatened now and wanting to keep a measure of defense in reserve. What can they realistically spare up front, and would they still be able to fight in a world now reverting to long-forgotten Middle Ages savagery?
In a bric-a-brac store yesterday, I idly picked up a set of Chinese sayings on a screen of bamboo sticks. The first one said, "Strike only when you are sure your enemy is weak."
Testing times have suddenly appeared as if out of nowhere. All European countries will be feeling threatened now and wanting to keep a measure of defense in reserve. What can they realistically spare up front, and would they still be able to fight in a world now reverting to long-forgotten Middle Ages savagery?
Testing times have suddenly appeared as if out of nowhere. All European countries will be feeling threatened now and wanting to keep a measure of defense in reserve. What can they realistically spare up front, and would they still be able to fight in a world now reverting to long-forgotten Middle Ages savagery?
Still used as a military textbook today.
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The recent media story and subsequent denial by official sources regarding the supply of attack helicopters
https://defence-blog.com/uk-denies-m...rs-to-ukraine/
got me thinking ... the Australians are replacing their Eurocopter Tigers with AH-64's over the next year or two. Might 20 modern attack helos with a nearby support and logistics chain be of use in Ukraine?
JAS
UK denies media report it plans to supply Apache helicopters to Ukraine
got me thinking ... the Australians are replacing their Eurocopter Tigers with AH-64's over the next year or two. Might 20 modern attack helos with a nearby support and logistics chain be of use in Ukraine?
JAS
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Ohh dear, never mind.. So much for the all singing, all dancing T90M
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Something I cannot figure, Ukraine is using Iranian munitions, isn't that the same side that is supplying Russia?
And Russia is giving SU35S aircraft to Iran, probably in exchange for missiles and drones.
https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east...e-months-64529
And Russia is giving SU35S aircraft to Iran, probably in exchange for missiles and drones.
https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east...e-months-64529
Russia to deliver Su-35 fighter jets to Iran in three months
The fighter jets are part of a major Iranian purchase, which also includes air defence systems, missile systems and helicopters as Tehran and Moscow deepen military cooperation.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
There are increasing signs of an imminent second wave of mobilisation in Russia, according to independent Russian media. The independent outlet Verstka says there are "numerous indications that mobilisation may start at any moment".
According to Verstka, "military registration and enlistment offices continue to send out summonses, and in Moscow, a group of specialists who helped the Moscow mayor's office to handle cases of illegal drafts is on 'combat readiness'".
Utility workers are reported to be preparing to deliver mobilisation notices and, according to a source, have been banned from taking holidays in January and February. Sources in Moscow's military registration and enlistment offices have told Verstka that their superiors have warned them that January-February "will be difficult".
Verstka has also been told by sources in the Russian parliament that a second mobilisation will happen soon.
The Kremlin is reported to have been working over the winter to avoid the many well-publicised problems encountered in the first wave of mobilisation and has taken technical and organisational steps to overcome them.
As Verstka notes, "Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu himself said that the work of the military registration and enlistment offices was being modernised, the existing databases were digitised and interaction between them and the regional authorities was being established."
A parliamentary source says that "since October, the authorities have more or less managed to solve the problem of manning and uniforming the mobilised".
Until now, conscripts (men doing compulsory military service – a distinct category from the mobilised) have been exempt from mobilisation. However, the source says that newly serving conscripts will be the first to be called up for mobilisation.
The Kremlin is unlikely to try to keep the new mobilisation secret, as information about it "will turn up on social networks anyway". However, there's little doubt that it will be controversial, especially if conscripts are now to be mobilised.
Russian law prohibits deploying conscripts outside the borders of the Russian Federation. Putin's annexation of four Ukrainian regions last year likely overcomes this legal obstacle, clearing the way for conscripts to join the fighting.
According to Verstka, "military registration and enlistment offices continue to send out summonses, and in Moscow, a group of specialists who helped the Moscow mayor's office to handle cases of illegal drafts is on 'combat readiness'".
Utility workers are reported to be preparing to deliver mobilisation notices and, according to a source, have been banned from taking holidays in January and February. Sources in Moscow's military registration and enlistment offices have told Verstka that their superiors have warned them that January-February "will be difficult".
Verstka has also been told by sources in the Russian parliament that a second mobilisation will happen soon.
The Kremlin is reported to have been working over the winter to avoid the many well-publicised problems encountered in the first wave of mobilisation and has taken technical and organisational steps to overcome them.
As Verstka notes, "Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu himself said that the work of the military registration and enlistment offices was being modernised, the existing databases were digitised and interaction between them and the regional authorities was being established."
A parliamentary source says that "since October, the authorities have more or less managed to solve the problem of manning and uniforming the mobilised".
Until now, conscripts (men doing compulsory military service – a distinct category from the mobilised) have been exempt from mobilisation. However, the source says that newly serving conscripts will be the first to be called up for mobilisation.
The Kremlin is unlikely to try to keep the new mobilisation secret, as information about it "will turn up on social networks anyway". However, there's little doubt that it will be controversial, especially if conscripts are now to be mobilised.
Russian law prohibits deploying conscripts outside the borders of the Russian Federation. Putin's annexation of four Ukrainian regions last year likely overcomes this legal obstacle, clearing the way for conscripts to join the fighting.
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