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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 1st Aug 2022, 12:39
  #7521 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
.

Regarding "the" bridge, I reckon its only a matter of time before the Ukrainians drop a span.
Much more beneficial if they can manage to keep it out-of-use rather than damage it so materially.
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Old 1st Aug 2022, 12:43
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Looking at the cause of the Prisoner massacre and the weaponary used

The Russian objective, according to the organization, was to get rid of the evidence of torture and murder of prisoners, as well as to discredit the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

"Russia never wanted to return the defenders of Azovstal to Ukraine, where they would be greeted as heroes," the investigative community noted.

“Their execution could lead to charges of war crimes and put Russian prisoners of war in Ukrainian hands at risk. At the same time, HIMARS gave Ukrainians hope, so Russia decided to stage the killing of prisoners of war as if they were killed by a GMLRS rocket in order to drown out the joy of Ukrainians from HIMARS.”

The analysts noted that Olenivka is located approximately 15 km from the front line, so it makes no sense to hit such a target with rare and expensive GMLRS rockets, because you can use 105-mm artillery rounds that cost about 0.4% of the cost of the rockets instead.
Read also:
Zelenskyy urges terrorist designation for Russia following POW executions at Olenivka In addition, Olenivka has for years been a well-known prisoner of war camp run by the Donetsk puppet authorities, and a concentration camp (as well as a penal colony for decades).

"You have to be a Russian troll or propagandist to believe that Ukraine would hit such a target," the investigators said.

The analysis of the photos published by the Russians from the scene of the tragedy shows that the Russians staged the "rocket attack" incompetently because none of them know how this multiple launch rocket system works.

In particular, after the impact, a damaged building (photo number 6) made of concrete bricks with a thin tin roof remained intact. The explosion was so weak that the beds did not move even an inch (photo 8), not a single brick fell out, and the steel column was not damaged. At the same time, the fire caused enormous damage, InformNapalm noted.
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Ukraine attempting to recover bodies of its dead prisoners of war from Olenivka For the sake of comparison, the investigators provide another photo (number 7), which shows the consequences of the strike of the GMLRS projectile. As a result of such an impact, walls were torn down, concrete ceilings were crushed, and fittings were torn into pieces.

But definitive proof that it was not a GMLRS rocket is the absence of an impact crater, InformNapalm emphasized. Image 9 shows the GMLRS impact crater. In Olenivka, the investigators did not record a single crater.

“The GMLRS M31 rockets hits a target at a 90-degree angle at Mach 4+ speed, to shatter the roof and explode inside (as well as destroy the secret guidance system, GPS components, and sensors on the end of the rocket)," InformNapalm noted.

“The tin roof of the building in Olenivka is too weak to break through and be triggered by a GMLRS rocket, so if a GMLRS projectile had hit, there would have been a shock-detonation crater in the middle of the room. But it is not there.”
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Estonian leader decries mass murder of captured Azov fighters in Olenivka It was also noted there that the M31 GMLRS rockets, given their composition, do not burn the target.

“M31 GMLRS rockets contain 51 pounds of PBX-109, a mixture of 64% RDX and 20% aluminum, and 16% HTPB/IPDI plastic fillers,” said the investigators.

“Aluminum is used to enhance the effect of the explosion, but it is not a thermobaric weapon that burns the target. If a GMLRS rocket had hit Olenivka, there would not have been any burned people inside... The explosion would have torn everyone apart, not burned them alive.”

Thermobaric weapons, known to be used by Russia, burn victims but leaves their bodies intact, the outlet added. That is, Russia could have used this weapon to burn people in their sleep. This is possibly confirmed by an inspection of visual damage to the building, the absence of a crater from the rocket impact, and the absence of damage from an explosion.

According to InformNapalm, most likely, the Russian representatives locked the prisoners in the room and shot through the windows with RPO-A "Shmel" or MRO-A thermobaric warhead. These types of ammunition have been in service with the Russian-controlled Donetsk puppet militias since 2014.

"It was a deliberate killing, just like in Katyn," InformNapalm concluded.

The killing of Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka: what is known

According to Ukrainian intelligence, on July 29, explosions were recorded in the town’s industrial zone, in a recently constructed building that was intended to be specially designated for holding Ukrainian soldiers who had surrendered at Azovstal. Some of the captured defenders of Ukraine were transferred there just two days prior.

Ukraine’s General Staff accused Russia of attacking its own prison in Olenivka in order to claim that Ukraine was committing war crimes. The General Staff said that the Russians were attempting to cover up their torture and execution of Ukrainian prisoners at the site on the orders of the occupation administration by blaming Ukraine for their murder, instead.

Russian mass media reported that at least 53 captured Ukrainian servicemen had died in the blasts. The following day, the Russian Ministry of Defense published a list of 42 dead prisoners. Ukraine’s Prosecutor-General’s Office says that about 40 people died and 130 were injured as a result of the explosions.
Read also:
EU foreign policy chief Borrell reacts to killing of Azov POWs in Olenivka Ukrainian ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets has said that the list of names of the dead has not been provided to him. According to him, Ukraine has begun a repatriation process for the deceased, and he has demanded the Russians provide him access to the scene.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba accused Russia of committing a “petrifying war crime” and called for Russia to be declared a terrorist state.

Presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak has demanded a response from the United Nations and international organizations to “the Russian war crime.”

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate reported that the order to murder the Azov Regiment prisoners of war was given by the nominal owner of the Wagner mercenary company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is known as “Putin’s chef” because his companies used to organize banquets for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine’s SBU security service published an intercepted conversation that it said confirms that it was the Russians who committed the mass murder of Ukrainian PoWs in the prison colony in Olenivka.

Judging by video clips from social media, the SBU noted, that the windows in some buildings of the prison complex can be seen to be completely intact — this may indicate that the epicenter of the explosion was inside the destroyed building, and was not caused by external shelling.
Read also:
‘Putin’s chef’ ordered Wagner mercenaries to murder Azov soldiers in Olenivka – Ukrainian intelligence The International Committee of the Red Cross, which served as a mediator when Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol surrendered, said that they were "familiar with the situation" and offered assistance in the evacuation of wounded Ukrainian soldiers in Olenivka and the free transfer of medicines, protective equipment and materials for forensic medical examination. The UN has promised to support the investigation of the events in Olenivka.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/informn...-50260086.html
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Old 1st Aug 2022, 13:15
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Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker
Incredibly patronising but I'll let it slide.
So, in your humble opinion, what would constitute an actionable Article 5 breach/attack? When is an attack on a member of NATO actually an attack on a member of NATO?
Good question. A simple example would be a flight / squadron of bombers crossing into {for example} Polish airspace and dropping their munitions on Poland. Likewise, a barrage of cruise missiles, or TBMs like Scuds.
In the modern age - remember that Article V was based on the Europe of the Cold War - it could be a variety of things. Interestingly, it was applied to, and resulted in NATO Ops in Afghanistan, the WTC bombing.
The size and shape of 'what's an attack that gets the Article V response' is ultimately decided by the 30 nations involved. We had a variety of Con Plans in NATO that had their own triggers (one I worked on had to do with attacks into Turkey from various states in the Middle East).
I suspect that a single case of sabotage would not constitute an Article V response .. but that depends on the scale and the magnitude...again, it's not an If/Then idiot switch.

@NutLoose: thanks for the link - the analysis on what did or didn't hit the building. The slaughter of the prisoners disgusts me.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 1st Aug 2022 at 13:34.
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Old 1st Aug 2022, 14:08
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Originally Posted by NutLoose;11271223
[color=#222222
Thermobaric weapons, known to be used by Russia, burn victims but leaves their bodies intact, the outlet added. That is, Russia could have used this weapon to burn people in their sleep. This is possibly confirmed by an inspection of visual damage to the building, the absence of a crater from the rocket impact, and the absence of damage from an explosion.[/color]
I don't understand this. It indicates that the only effects of a thermobaric device is fire, but I believed that this fuel/air explosive also produced a massive detonation through the precise mixing and explosion of fuel droplets and air. If this is the case then I would equally have expected this shed to have been blown apart and bodies to have been shredded. What am I missing ?
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Old 1st Aug 2022, 15:02
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A Ukrainian news story cites a official source saying that some Russian Marines won't go to fight in Ukraine.

If true, is that the tip of an iceberg?

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Old 1st Aug 2022, 15:03
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
I don't understand this. It indicates that the only effects of a thermobaric device is fire, but I believed that this fuel/air explosive also produced a massive detonation through the precise mixing and explosion of fuel droplets and air. If this is the case then I would equally have expected this shed to have been blown apart and bodies to have been shredded. What am I missing ?
You are thinking big stuff, got to about 2.10 on this, it is the weapon the link says was probably used. A shoulder launched weapon and with a tin roof I would say that lifted due to the pressure while the weapon did its worst below, hence the walls etc still standing... poor guys, did not deserve that

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Old 1st Aug 2022, 15:16
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
You are thinking big stuff, got to about 2.10 on this, it is the weapon the link says was probably used. A shoulder launched weapon and with a tin roof I would say that lifted due to the pressure while the weapon did its worst below, hence the walls etc still standing... poor guys, did not deserve that

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrDXY6eTdVk
I wish the west would do more, urgently, to end this evil.
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Old 1st Aug 2022, 15:23
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
You are thinking big stuff, got to about 2.10 on this, it is the weapon the link says was probably used. A shoulder launched weapon and with a tin roof I would say that lifted due to the pressure while the weapon did its worst below, hence the walls etc still standing... poor guys, did not deserve that
Thanks Nutty. You are absolutely right. I didn't know that this existed in anything other than air-dropped form.
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Old 1st Aug 2022, 17:30
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
You are thinking big stuff, got to about 2.10 on this, it is the weapon the link says was probably used. A shoulder launched weapon and with a tin roof I would say that lifted due to the pressure while the weapon did its worst below, hence the walls etc still standing... poor guys, did not deserve that

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrDXY6eTdVk
Afaik, the Russians have invited the Red Cross etc to inspect the site, although I've no idea what one could find.
Presumably one could swab the walls and maybe get a sense of the explosives used, possibly isotope analysis could differentiate Russian from western sources. No idea whether the inspectors would have that kind of capability.
Trouble is that with the site so open, someone could drop in a few HIMARS fragments and make a big deal of it.
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Old 1st Aug 2022, 17:36
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Once again etudiant, you're wrong. Russia has denied access to the Red Cross.


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Old 1st Aug 2022, 17:41
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The physical evidence of the building - and lack of evidence such as a crater precludes the Russian explanation.

They could scatter fragments of a torpedo around the scene - it wouldn’t make a submarine attack any more plausible….
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Old 1st Aug 2022, 17:48
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Trouble is that with the site so open, someone could drop in a few HIMARS fragments and make a big deal of it.
If there is no crater, they would presumably say it was a new air-blast type, but somehow configured to leave the walls standing with the roof on. ORAC's comment on the torpedo is particularly prescient and appropriate. One has the feeling that the Russians on the spot are desperate and capable of any level of stupidity.
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Old 1st Aug 2022, 18:27
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The physical evidence of the building - and lack of evidence such as a crater precludes the Russian explanation.

They could scatter fragments of a torpedo around the scene - it wouldn’t make a submarine attack any more plausible….
To the Moscow regime, it doesn't matter how good the evidence is. The target audience is the serfs in the Empire who will believe whatever they are told by State TV and who want to believe because its suits them to do so.
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Old 1st Aug 2022, 18:57
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Thanks Nutty. You are absolutely right. I didn't know that this existed in anything other than air-dropped form.
The US Marine Corps have an equivalent warhead for their Mk153 SMAW - called the Novel Explosive warhead
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Old 1st Aug 2022, 21:56
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Originally Posted by melmothtw
Once again etudiant, you're wrong. Russia has denied access to the Red Cross.
I was going by a NY Times report on Sunday quoting the Russian Ministry of Defense.
That appears to have changed, as noted the Red Cross is still waiting for permission to visit the site.
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 00:28
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Originally Posted by etudiant
I was going by a NY Times report on Sunday quoting the Russian Ministry of Defense.
That appears to have changed, as noted the Red Cross is still waiting for permission to visit the site.
Well, as usual, what the Russians say or seem to say, is most often false.
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 00:55
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Originally Posted by etudiant
I was going by a NY Times report on Sunday quoting the Russian Ministry of Defense.
That appears to have changed, as noted the Red Cross is still waiting for permission to visit the site.
Maybe dont take what your employers say as gospel
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 01:13
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Originally Posted by rattman
Maybe dont take what your employers say as gospel
Good advice wrt The New York Times perhaps. Should I switch to the Washington Post?
Iirc, Bismarck's counsel was not to believe anything until it had been officially denied. That does clear the in box pretty effectively.
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 01:24
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Do they deliver to Moscow?
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Old 2nd Aug 2022, 02:36
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Do they deliver to Moscow?
Sure do, believe it is mandatory reading in parts of the Kremlin.
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