Is Ukraine about to have a war?
A response in kind (but not nuclear) would have to be massive. and then, yes what would the response be, surely more nukes from russia, but if it avoids going straight to nukes im with that, but is that plan in place, they've had 6 months i would hope and expect so but still. tomahawks, scalp, and air force i presume to take out forces in Crimea, sinking every asset in the black sea and the fighting line and military across occupied ukraine. will take quite alot of our assets, inventory.
However take a few steps back to march and the atmosphere at the time was threatening Poland, estonia, baltics, Finland, Sweden. yes they are now reinforced, but maybe this is part of a "chess game." he wants us to play into.
My original reply was based on the scenario by one of the posters that a single nuke on "lets say snake island" would be,..appeasable.
To me, on principle alone, giving that impression, even thinking twice about it, is dangerous....
In practice we can do what we want but to start, infringing on the principal of mad is a salami slice.
However take a few steps back to march and the atmosphere at the time was threatening Poland, estonia, baltics, Finland, Sweden. yes they are now reinforced, but maybe this is part of a "chess game." he wants us to play into.
My original reply was based on the scenario by one of the posters that a single nuke on "lets say snake island" would be,..appeasable.
To me, on principle alone, giving that impression, even thinking twice about it, is dangerous....
In practice we can do what we want but to start, infringing on the principal of mad is a salami slice.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Reference RU aircraft loses today - now claimed as a Su-25, two Su-30, a Su-34 (possibly in the above video), and 5 UAVs.…
You are quite correct, at the moment it is a bit of a game, some free food, a salary and your own AK.
Then some strikes on your unit as you cross the FOA things get naughty.
Looking at many of the faces in the videos (granted not a scientific measure) and my feelings as a lad joining up...this for many is a great big adventure.
I hope there are cleared paths and logistics in place for the Russian troops to escape into the Ukrainian territory.
I still feel that Putes for all his bluster is playing the long game.
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A response in kind (but not nuclear) would have to be massive. and then, yes what would the response be, surely more nukes from russia, but if it avoids going straight to nukes im with that, but is that plan in place, they've had 6 months i would hope and expect so but still. tomahawks, scalp, and air force i presume to take out forces in Crimea, sinking every asset in the black sea and the fighting line and military across occupied ukraine. will take quite alot of our assets, inventory.
A tactical weapon as far as I recall can be small enough to be delivered by cruise missile or even artillery. Not being well briefed any more on the Rusk threat I would tend to think that going full MAD for a small weapon would not be in NATOs thinking, more likely some serious conventional strikes would be more likely.
I just cannot see the reasoning for Russia to launch a large missile at NATO or Ukraine, that is most certainly not escalate to de-escalate.
I just cannot see the reasoning for Russia to launch a large missile at NATO or Ukraine, that is most certainly not escalate to de-escalate.
For example, the nuclear dreams of Iran, and the nuclear reality of Pakistan and India, were not a part of the Cold War calculus that you and I grew up in, and that you and I served in, but each of them poses a massive threat to a great deal of the Northern Hemisphere even if they don't shoot at Europe. (For a reference, see the study at Rutgers University done about the effects of a Pakistan vs India nuclear exchange).
Granted, if the submarines with the red star and the strategic missiles are launched, the response is as you say; and if you and I are alive after the mushroom clouds subside, life is still going to get a lot harder for a lot of people.
At that point PPRuNe no longer matters, and the UN will have failed much more badly than the League of Nations failed.
If I may return to aviation content, let us presume that one of those hypersonic missiles that the Russians have has been given a nuclear tip (per my discussion with @henra a few days ago). Consider two cases of a launch with the target being:
- Somewhere in Ukraine
- Somewhere else in Europe.
I don't think that the NATO response is identical in those cases because Ukraine does not have Article V protection, while everyone else in NATO does.
I had begun to believe, back in the late 90's, as I left my NATO job, that at long last we'd put that whole "tactical nuke" to bed. (I helped in my own small way as a staff officer, to retire a few of the Contingency Plans for that but obviously not all of them).
Here it is a quarter of a century later and that damned genii still won't go back into the bottle.
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Lonewolf if you do not nip it in the bud and make sure that everyone understands that the only response to a nuke will be another nuke, then it opens China up to nuking Taiwan and Pakistan and India.
You have to have rules that everyone knows and understands that if you let that genie out of the bottle there will be a proportional and equal response, yes I maybe a relic of the cold war BUT the “rules” that have stood the world in good stead and have prevented the world from destruction then still are viable today.
Article 5 I think would possibly be invoked dependant on where a nuke was detonated, Kyiv for example would effect Poland
Meanwhile Russia is attempting to fill in the channel at the dam to restore access to Kherson.
You have to have rules that everyone knows and understands that if you let that genie out of the bottle there will be a proportional and equal response, yes I maybe a relic of the cold war BUT the “rules” that have stood the world in good stead and have prevented the world from destruction then still are viable today.
Article 5 I think would possibly be invoked dependant on where a nuke was detonated, Kyiv for example would effect Poland
Meanwhile Russia is attempting to fill in the channel at the dam to restore access to Kherson.
Last edited by NutLoose; 24th Sep 2022 at 22:07.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
A bad day for the Russian Air Force, Episode 3: Another Russian fighter jet, claimed to be an Su-30SM, was shot down using a Stinger MANPADS over #Kharkiv Oblast. Again, we have drone footage.
I don't think it was that simple
I think that Chamberlain knew exactly what he was doing when he held up the "piece of paper" - he knew we weren't ready and was prepared to sacrifice his reputation in an attempt to buy us enough time to make ourselves ready. And fortunately it worked ... just
I think that Chamberlain knew exactly what he was doing when he held up the "piece of paper" - he knew we weren't ready and was prepared to sacrifice his reputation in an attempt to buy us enough time to make ourselves ready. And fortunately it worked ... just
No it didn't work as was proven by six years of war and 40,000,000 deaths
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Video’s with Russian mobilized is a truly unique type of aesthetic pleasure 🥂
(English subtitles)
(English subtitles)
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Britain was still exhausted from four years of slaughter 20 years before which in effect changed the entire makeup of the country
and yes you're right, there would have been far fewer deaths ... because Germany would have just marched into Britain with almost nothing to stop it. The delay the "piece of paper" bought us allowed us to change that outcome
and yes you're right, there would have been far fewer deaths ... because Germany would have just marched into Britain with almost nothing to stop it. The delay the "piece of paper" bought us allowed us to change that outcome
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The problem I see Is Britain isn’t ready for the current crisis, the rest of Europe is ramping up militarily and we for want of a better word are still ramping down.
Beamr :-
I think that the starting point was that Putin might be tempted to use a nuclear weapon (location unknown). My position is that nothing has changed since the Cold War (with all due respect to L50) concerning Russia (nee the USSR) and NATO (aka the West). MAD still applies. MAD kept the lid on the bucket throughout the Cold War and has done so ever since. If such a strike is delivered by Russia it needs to be made clear that it will be met with retaliation against Russia in the same way. That is the only way to ensure that Putin resists such a temptation. Any other fudge such as reverting to NATO rapid response forces will lead to the very WWIII that Nutloose was wrongly accused of enabling. The West shelters under the nuclear umbrella of the USA, the UK, and France. If NATO cannot threaten retaliation as I describe (if Article 5 does not apply) then the nuclear powers could do so jointly (or even individually if necessary). The priority is to prevent Putin going for the button by threatening that we will do likewise. Like any threat it must be sincerely meant, just as it was in the Cold War. It kept the peace then and it can enable it still.
Sue Vetements, Hitler should have been stopped the moment he marched into the Saarland, let alone Austria and the Sudetenland. declaring war on him only when he ran out of German speakers to 'liberate' was far too late. Your case seems to be that Chamberlain enabled the UK to survive at the cost of the rest of Europe being enslaved by him. It would have perhaps been far better if the Allies had sorted him out long before, instead of allowing him to plunder the bullion reserves of all the occupied countries and all their armaments. I only make the point as Putin seems to be taking his cue from Hitler by substituting Russian speakers instead. He needs to be stopped now. That is why we must support Ukraine to the hilt.
However, the start point of discussion was that Russia uses a WMD on Ukrainian soil.
Sue Vetements, Hitler should have been stopped the moment he marched into the Saarland, let alone Austria and the Sudetenland. declaring war on him only when he ran out of German speakers to 'liberate' was far too late. Your case seems to be that Chamberlain enabled the UK to survive at the cost of the rest of Europe being enslaved by him. It would have perhaps been far better if the Allies had sorted him out long before, instead of allowing him to plunder the bullion reserves of all the occupied countries and all their armaments. I only make the point as Putin seems to be taking his cue from Hitler by substituting Russian speakers instead. He needs to be stopped now. That is why we must support Ukraine to the hilt.
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Put it this way, if Russia drops a tactical nuke on Ukraine and there isn’t a proportional response, say NATO simply ramps up supply’s and operations in the area, that then gives Russia the belief that there will be no nuclear response, so they are free to drop another and another.
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Put it this way, if Russia drops a tactical nuke on Ukraine and there isn’t a proportional response, say NATO simply ramps up supply’s and operations in the area, that then gives Russia the belief that there will be no nuclear response, so they are free to drop another and another.
Put it this way, if Russia drops a tactical nuke on Ukraine and there isn’t a proportional response, say NATO simply ramps up supply’s and operations in the area, that then gives Russia the belief that there will be no nuclear response, so they are free to drop another and another.
I'm suggesting that NATO would join the efforts, not just by increasing supplies to Ukraine but by boots on the ground, and at least with anything that flies. Either from a sub, from a MLRS, or fixed/rotating wing asset.
If the nukes are then tossed again, the response should be proportional WITH nukes.
This approach would still make it clear to all that if you use nukes you'll be confronted by the military wrath of an average sized planet and destroyed.
Now what has been forgotten from the discussion is that Biden drew the line on all NBCs, eg. chemical warfare as well. Biden advised Putin not to or the fecal matter hits the fan. At that point there would be a proportionate response as well, but I seriously doubt that anyone would even consider using chemical weapons despite the dictator using them.