Is Ukraine about to have a war?
China might have been reluctant before but having seen how inept the 21st century Russian military is they might now be inclined to give it a go.
And no need at all for Washington to get it's hands dirty.
Well, I was hoping to hear a few less obvious suggestions. But one fairly obvious one, that has the means and the appetite for what Russia has, is China.
China might have been reluctant before but having seen how inept the 21st century Russian military is they might now be inclined to give it a go. And no need at all for Washington to get it's hands dirty.
China might have been reluctant before but having seen how inept the 21st century Russian military is they might now be inclined to give it a go. And no need at all for Washington to get it's hands dirty.
Until the barrels wear out. 
(Or until ammo runs short)
Interesting essay, the means to fight (for Ukraine) are only present due to help from other nations. As long as it continues, I am pretty sure that their will to fight will remain.
Going on the offensive should not be described as easy. From the reports by the Ukraine soldiers, both sides are dug in, and they tend to dig deep.
Yes. For their counteroffensive to work (IMO) they need to get local air superiority. And I think they can't get that unless they can get superiority (at least locally) of the electromagnetic spectrum.
(Or until ammo runs short) Going on the offensive should not be described as easy. From the reports by the Ukraine soldiers, both sides are dug in, and they tend to dig deep.
For now Ukraine will continue to utilize fires to shape the battlefield and inflict damage decreasing Russian capability….
Until the barrels wear out. (Or until ammo runs short)
Interesting essay, the means to fight (for Ukraine) are only present due to help from other nations. As long as it continues, I am pretty sure that their will to fight will remain.
Going on the offensive should not be described as easy. From the reports by the Ukraine soldiers, both sides are dug in, and they tend to dig deep.
Yes. For their counteroffensive to work (IMO) they need to get local air superiority. And I think they can't get that unless they can get superiority (at least locally) of the electromagnetic spectrum.
(Or until ammo runs short)Interesting essay, the means to fight (for Ukraine) are only present due to help from other nations. As long as it continues, I am pretty sure that their will to fight will remain.
Going on the offensive should not be described as easy. From the reports by the Ukraine soldiers, both sides are dug in, and they tend to dig deep.
Yes. For their counteroffensive to work (IMO) they need to get local air superiority. And I think they can't get that unless they can get superiority (at least locally) of the electromagnetic spectrum.
I think they would fight with their bare hands if they had to. Let's hope it does not come to that.
I met two Ukrainian refugees yesterday, each has their two children with them. They both are quite traumatised by what had happened to them, something I had not thought about. It is not quite the same seeing refugees fleeing Russian shelling in Ukraine where the trauma is obvious, as having them in your home, a safe place and they are still showing signs of trauma. A big lesson to me, I hope I can do something useful with it.
(And I don't doubt your assessment). I had to have the issue of how one treats the gun barrels explained to me by a naval gunnery officer as regards the 5" 54 guns on the Spruance class destroyers I served on.
I met two Ukrainian refugees yesterday, each has their two children with them. They both are quite traumatised by what had happened to them, something I had not thought about. It is not quite the same seeing refugees fleeing Russian shelling in Ukraine where the trauma is obvious, as having them in your home, a safe place and they are still showing signs of trauma. A big lesson to me, I hope I can do something useful with it.
Going on the offensive should not be described as easy. From the reports by the Ukraine soldiers, both sides are dug in, and they tend to dig deep.
Almost all of the fighting it would appear has been conducted along the major roads and as such the traditional sense of manoeuvre warfare has not been seen. The Russian traditional doctrine has been to spread out and hammer the enemy with large armoured and then mechanised forces while pulverising prepared positions with artillery.
They have been completely unable to do this since the start of the war.
At the beginning the fields and mud stopped them deploying into large formations and using momentum to steam roller the Ukrainians. The lack of momentum after day 2-3 left them vulnerable to ATGM, artillery, SF, mines and Air Assets - Think of A Bridge Too Far.
Every time the Rusks have tried to re-deploy they have been battered by the Uke Artillery, fast air and latterly MLRS and similar assets.
The deep strikes against depots and choke points has left the Russian forces depleted and unable to advance in significant numbers.
This has left the Crimea very vulnerable to counter attack and a large thrust, which will likely lead to a Russian House of Cards - if the Ukrainians can bypass the prepared positions.
There will likely be a large initial battle to clear one axis of advance either side of a main road - then it will likely be a turkey shoot and the Russians will fall back piece meal over the bridge - in haste, fearful that the HIMARS could drop it at any time.
The bypassed Rusk elements will be starved out and the two breakaway areas will either be next, or some sort of peace treaty will ensue. I am unsure due to the large variety of weaponry and the lateness of the year if the Ukes have the ability to retake the Donbass - not that they would probably want it. Better to be a buffer zone, while they wait for F16s / 35s, Apache, Abrams, HIMARS and Bradleys to be delivered in huge numbers.
The next 6 weeks are likely to be the game changer.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Massive own goal for the Wagner forces in Donbas with heavy casualties…
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You couldn’t make these things up.
A headquarters of the Russian private military contractor Wagner in the embattled Donbas region was hit by a Ukrainian missile strike after a Russian correspondent posted a picture of it—including a plaque with its full address
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Demining the Fields.
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries...tion-3887.html
...I really dunno what to make of this 
The specifications of this submarine are as follows: width 7.4 m, length 9 m, height 2.2 meters. Speed on the surface is 80 km/h, underwater – 50 km/h. The operating depth is 150 meters, the crush depth is 250 meters. The time spent underwater is 36 hours in battery mode, 18 hours in generator mode, and 54 hours in hybrid mode.
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The partisan damaged rail bridge to melitopol.
Spectacular timing for tank war games in Russia!
https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/...sia/68582.html
It is interesting to see the list of countries participating.
https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/...sia/68582.html
It is interesting to see the list of countries participating.
Evertonian
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Translation
#Ukraine kamikaze drone destroys a communication tower on the territory of the Russian Federation near the border #war #Krieg
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Well the whole of the northern Caucasus is an area to watch. If Putin falls and Russia has internal disorder don’t xpect Chechnya or th other republics not to stir up trouble.
Lots of anger at the disparate casualties in Ukraine as their men and sons have been fed into the meat grinder.whilst those in Moscow and S Petersburg have been spared…
And when the Chechens fighting for Ukraine head home they’ll undoubtedly take lots of experience and equipment with them - and volunteers and logistic support.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechnya
https://jamestown.org/program/russia...orth-caucasus/
https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/ch...ns-in-ukraine/
Lots of anger at the disparate casualties in Ukraine as their men and sons have been fed into the meat grinder.whilst those in Moscow and S Petersburg have been spared…
And when the Chechens fighting for Ukraine head home they’ll undoubtedly take lots of experience and equipment with them - and volunteers and logistic support.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechnya
https://jamestown.org/program/russia...orth-caucasus/
https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/ch...ns-in-ukraine/
With regard to artillery wearing out - a catastrophic failure in the field:
"Footage of an Ukrainian 2S7 failed when firing"
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
"Footage of an Ukrainian 2S7 failed when firing"
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3