Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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Not sure what the bylaws are for Reddit links:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...m_source=share
Flag swapping ceremony, alleged Kupiyansk administrative building in the downtown.
Point being, the railroad node is actually south of the city itself. Despite obvious glory and other benefits, the need to push and rollover the urban areas was not immediately there. Gesture of good-will, or?
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...m_source=share
Flag swapping ceremony, alleged Kupiyansk administrative building in the downtown.
Point being, the railroad node is actually south of the city itself. Despite obvious glory and other benefits, the need to push and rollover the urban areas was not immediately there. Gesture of good-will, or?
I have no idea of the actual situation over there, but in general: I'd hate to advance to a defended urban area. If the city can be taken by just walking in I'd take it and fortify. It would be an opportunity too good to miss as tomorrow the orcs may be there and things get much more complicated (remember Mariupol).
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Looks quite likely that Kupiansk has been liberated ( FD link does not work for me)
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/...edia/?swcfpc=1
Church of St Nicholas in the background maybe. Can also see the radio transmitter on the map so ....
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ku...4!4d37.6027997
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/...edia/?swcfpc=1
Church of St Nicholas in the background maybe. Can also see the radio transmitter on the map so ....
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ku...4!4d37.6027997
Last edited by Usertim; 10th Sep 2022 at 07:42.
Is Ukraine about to have a war? (if so, why....?)
So, 6 months on, Russia has shown that the bear that the Russian military has been believed to be, was rather mistreated by it's masters in the Kremlin, while achieving saturation of institutional corruption. The smart weapons while they lasted were somewhat smarter than the management of their application, something that we can all give thanks for. The mighty Russian airforces front line fighters have been absent from the front line, the presence of or even the suspicion of presence of MANPADS which are now liberally supplied to the Ukrainian front lines. The SA-10 Grumble (S-300) and the development SA-21 Growler, (S-400) were sufficiently of concern to result in the CEO of Almaz-Antey being sent to the Gulags for his provision of applied design excellence. Same for the T-72 in it's various guises, along with the T-80's. The Russian Navy reminisces for the good ol' days, circa 1905, Tsusimskoye srazheniye, (Tsushimaoki-Kaisen, Battle of tsushima). Admirals Rozhestvensky and von Fölkersahm now have top cover for their efforts at Dogger Bank and Port Arthur... The Kursk submarine disaster is now eclipsed by the Moskva's efforts to remuster from Surface Force to Submarine Force. It is fortunate that Admiral Flota Sovetskogo Soyuza Kuznetsovwas indisposed through the hazards to health of smoking, and the remustering of PD-50 from Floating Dry Dock to Marine Hazard to Navigation. 'Gators got their tails chewed, VVS Su-25's seem to get through occasionally, 19 are toasted, they do seem to be unwelcome. 6 Su-24's, 10 Su-30's, 11 Su-34's and a smattering of Su-35's. The latter rides are the cream of the crop, and seem to have need for good hull liability cover (the city is probably not going to give good rates to the VVO at present).
Russia has shown that hypersonic missiles are going to be a pain. Ukraine responded and used gravity assist on some grenades and had arguably greater effect. Ukraine has shown that a little bit of planning for committed troops beats planning to beat your own conscripts and staff that should be committed. Putin has shown that he is to strategy as dog doo is to haute cuisine.
Nonetheless...
Why are we here? Why did Count d' Money veer off on a tear to make the mess that exists for Russia today?
1/5
Russia has shown that hypersonic missiles are going to be a pain. Ukraine responded and used gravity assist on some grenades and had arguably greater effect. Ukraine has shown that a little bit of planning for committed troops beats planning to beat your own conscripts and staff that should be committed. Putin has shown that he is to strategy as dog doo is to haute cuisine.
Nonetheless...
Why are we here? Why did Count d' Money veer off on a tear to make the mess that exists for Russia today?
1/5
Last edited by fdr; 10th Sep 2022 at 08:16.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Which is ll very good - but not really related to the war, and would perhaps be better moved to the JB thread…..
Meanwhile…
A Russian Telegram channel is saying that Izyum has fallen….
Meanwhile…
A Russian Telegram channel is saying that Izyum has fallen….
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Dr Mike Martin:
Reports are coming in that Kupyansk has fallen, and also, just now, early reports that Izyum has been abandoned with Russian troops fleeing.
I tweeted this map a few days ago. Kupyansk is the yellow circle, and Izyum the red circle. By taking K the Ukr cut off the logistics to Izyum making it undefendable.
The Russians fled Izyum in what can only be described as a rout.
The Ukrainians have just fought a brilliant piece of combined arms manœuvrer. The Russian armed forces have been demonstrated, again, to be utterly terrible.
Russian units are now reportedly trying to relocate to the Donbas. Once they get there they have to contend with the loss of Izyum and Kupyansk - the two railway hubs for that side of the country.
The Russians use rail for lots of their log and so this is very significant - the Russians will not be able to conduct offensive operations in the Donbas anymore until (if ever?) they reconfigure their logistics.
But as ever - this is all about Kherson. Watch over there too today - because Crimea is the Russian strategic centre of gravity and the Kherson pocket will need to collapse to make that happen.
But after what we’ve seen over the last 72 hours the collapse of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine doesn’t seem a long way away.….
Reports are coming in that Kupyansk has fallen, and also, just now, early reports that Izyum has been abandoned with Russian troops fleeing.
I tweeted this map a few days ago. Kupyansk is the yellow circle, and Izyum the red circle. By taking K the Ukr cut off the logistics to Izyum making it undefendable.
The Russians fled Izyum in what can only be described as a rout.
The Ukrainians have just fought a brilliant piece of combined arms manœuvrer. The Russian armed forces have been demonstrated, again, to be utterly terrible.
Russian units are now reportedly trying to relocate to the Donbas. Once they get there they have to contend with the loss of Izyum and Kupyansk - the two railway hubs for that side of the country.
The Russians use rail for lots of their log and so this is very significant - the Russians will not be able to conduct offensive operations in the Donbas anymore until (if ever?) they reconfigure their logistics.
But as ever - this is all about Kherson. Watch over there too today - because Crimea is the Russian strategic centre of gravity and the Kherson pocket will need to collapse to make that happen.
But after what we’ve seen over the last 72 hours the collapse of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine doesn’t seem a long way away.….
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The Russian propaganda media are lost, they are struggling to comprehend what is happening and are almost talking defeat, one does wonder as they are the mouthpiece of the Russian establishment are they setting up the population for a massive defeat.
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Reports coming in Russia has withdrawn possibly from Izyum and Lyman if so it will start to be a total collapse as their supply routes have gone in the regions.
Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Sep 2022 at 09:54.
"The 202nd Regiment near Balakleyia Retreated to Luhansk, and a Half Part Has Been Taken Prisoners"
Thats a lot of POW to walk behind the lines.
Thats a lot of POW to walk behind the lines.
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Read this from the Russians!
https://wartranslated.com/day-198-se...ily-broadcast/
https://wartranslated.com/day-198-se...ily-broadcast/
Battlefield update:
Kharkiv district:
Over 30% liberated, from Balakliia to Kupyansk, 100km in 3 days. 🇷🇺 sources reporting another offensive south of Izium. Izium is almost isolated (only 1 route left). Reports of 🇷🇺 237th Guards Air Assault Regiment ceased to exist, another motorised regiment abandoned by commanders, looking for a chance to surrender. A lot of POW’s captured, thousands of shells, and dozens of armoured vehicles, including the latest models of BTR-82, and Msta-S artillery. If 🇷🇺 sources are correct about the scale of 🇺🇦 operation, then it’s going to be thousands of POWs. Izium also holds the headquarters of the 20th army, it’s a total military catastrophe. 🇺🇦 doesn’t have enough room for POWsBakhmut:
🇷🇺 still attempting some attacks, but they don’t have any assault forces left. 🇷🇺 spent all their assault forces in Popasna, Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk.Donetsk:
🇷🇺 keeps attack attempts, as they have planned, not realizing, they need to change their actions radically. 🇷🇺 is literally breaking all military rules, making all possible mistakes.Kherson:
🇺🇦 slowly and methodically kicking 🇷🇺, and destroying river crossings. 🇷🇺 army requiring 4000 tons of supplies per day are receiving only 1300-1400 tons. They are in a trap, partially due to Feygin-Arestovych broadcast.🇷🇺 counterattack:
As expected, 🇷🇺 attempted to bring reserves to Kharkiv district, including part 3rd army corps, but they are badly organized, lacking knowledge, entering battle from movement in total chaos. Only 1 🇷🇺 commander attempted to follow military science, and concentrate forces, but that concentration was immediately bombed by 🇺🇦. Everything, that could have caused problems for 🇺🇦 offensive is disorganized and getting destroyed.🇷🇺 options:
🇷🇺 does not have any options left: Total mobilization would be the fastest way to destroy 🇷🇺. The use of nuclear weapons would get an immediate response from the West. Strategic aviation won’t be able to find 🇺🇦 infantry in forests. 🇷🇺 can ask for peace, but 🇺🇦 might not agree.🇷🇺 security council:
Possible 🇷🇺 military actions would be to relocate (5 days+, after which 🇺🇦 would attack in their previous location), retreat and reduce the front-line length, and close flanks. The military is likely to suggest treating Kherson and Izium groups as losses, accounting for 1/6th of the total army size. Most likely 🇷🇺 would continue using the same strategy, leading to the same results.Call to 🇷🇺 troops:
You are getting blamed, and now you either get buried in 🇺🇦, or you can bury Putin in civil war.Ramstein meeting:
Some very exciting news, unfortunately, details can not be revealed. Winter is going to look fantastic, if 🇷🇺 live that long. 🇺🇦 has nothing to worry about🇷🇺 regional elections:
Various opposition groups are calling to boycott or write “No war” on ballots.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Russian Telegraph sites now all reporting Russian troops have left/fled Lyman…
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Only half a speed-brake
UKR need a little more help with restocking. Fabric, preferably sunflower yellow and azure.
Low on national flags on the north eastern front.
Low on national flags on the north eastern front.
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Russians falling the Kharkiv regions back into Russia.
LDR / DPR are not recognised by the UN