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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 9th Aug 2022, 22:02
  #7781 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The destroyed barracks might be just as crucial - if that was the accommodation block for the deployed SU-24 aircrew…
.
Couldn’t they just use an hotel?
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Old 9th Aug 2022, 23:57
  #7782 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
.
Couldn’t they just use an hotel?
[Aviation content]

9=a, see! the time spent on CRM was never lost, you came out with an inspired solution for the intractable problem of where to house the intrepid aviators. Suspect that the investment boom that will precipitate will be tempered by the minor problem that the Ru Naval Air just lost a portion of their "plains".

Whatever the Russians are doing with their wiring and cigarette rules around arms dumps and POL supplies, they really need an OHSA visit. The driver of the car that had the hangar translate hurredly through the passengers window and out of the drivers door will be wanting compensation at the very least, and if he/she was in the drivers seat at the time, then they will want a free Lada from Vlad, (hurry, while stocks last...).

It takes a certain courage to own up to such misfortunes in the OHS rules, so kudos to the soon to be inmate of Lefortovo prison who took the poisoned chalice for that.

Gives a new meaning to the term "Selective Fire"
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 00:44
  #7783 (permalink)  
 
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M109a3 hit, though it appears to shrug it off, a wounded soldier is spotted when it stops.

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Old 10th Aug 2022, 01:03
  #7784 (permalink)  
 
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Given the destroyed jet and cars in the carpark, this shows the distance between both.


and this is 1km away!


Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Aug 2022 at 01:18.
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 01:13
  #7785 (permalink)  
 
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The strike in Crimea is having an effect, they are still queuing to flee over the bridge.

https://twitter.com/search?q=Crimea%...rc=typed_query
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 03:16
  #7786 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The strike in Crimea is having an effect, they are still queuing to flee over the bridge.

https://twitter.com/search?q=Crimea%...rc=typed_query
That would make it interesting to put some holes on the empty lanes... Probably would be tough to do it without collateral losses unfortunately, and that would be bad for the moral high ground. Still, make it difficult to supply occupied Crimea against the flow.

It is not certain that those departing are all supporters of Count Vlad, any civilian would be well advised to be getting out of Dodge, and that is currently the safest direction to travel, supporter or not. Going west would be pretty tough at the FEBA.

decisions, decisions
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 06:20
  #7787 (permalink)  
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Your weekly reminder that production of MGM-140 ATACMS ended 15-yrs ago. Only 3,700 ever manufactured. Present inventory unk.

Its replacement, the "Precision Strike Missile," due to saturation levels of good idea fairies won't achieve IOC not until next year.
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 06:52
  #7788 (permalink)  
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https://www.politico.eu/article/russ...nian-pipeline/

Russia halts oil flows through Ukrainian pipeline

Russian oil deliveries through the southern Druzhba pipeline servicing Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic have been halted since August 4, Russian supplier Transneft said Tuesday.

The company cited a problem with EU financial sanctions, which resulted in Transneft's regular payment for transit across Ukraine bouncing on July 28. Ukraine's state-owned Naftogaz, the parent company of oil infrastructure operator Ukrtransnafta, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The payment was routed through Russia's Gazprombank, which is not subject to EU sanctions. But the reason for the returned payment was given as "the entry into force of EU Regulation 2022/1269. In particular, the procedure for controlling cross-border payments from the Russian Federation was specified," the Transneft statement reads.

The Russian oil supplier claimed that EU-based correspondent banks handling money flows from Russia are not currently able to independently decide on authorization for individual transactions, and must wait for approval from national authorities.

"To resolve the issue, Transneft sent an appeal to an authorized bank for further transfer of information to the European regulator in order to obtain permission to conduct settlements ... options for an alternative flow of funds are being worked out, daily consultations and negotiations with servicing banks are carried out," the supplier said. "However, to date, the issue of the possibility of making payments has not been resolved."
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 07:46
  #7789 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Unclear to me . Do you mean Western consumption ? If yes, this completely ignores my question about giving the Russkies forward information about new weapons.

ditto ORAC
You assume that any of the information provided is is either true or complete.
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 08:06
  #7790 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Your weekly reminder that production of MGM-140 ATACMS ended 15-yrs ago. Only 3,700 ever manufactured. Present inventory unk.

Its replacement, the "Precision Strike Missile," due to saturation levels of good idea fairies won't achieve IOC not until next year.
That was the peace timescale for the the PSM.
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 09:20
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Queueing said to be Nr 10 KM long to flee Crimea.. You won't be able to hide that fact from the populace on the other end of the bridge that all is not well.



oops... over confidence spells a disaster waiting to happen


Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Aug 2022 at 09:30.
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 09:36
  #7792 (permalink)  
 
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Just throwing this into the pot. The sky was exceptionally clear and blue. No-one has yet mentioned the possibility of unintentional/accidental discharge of missile(s) etc. on the ground.
https://aviation.stackexchange.com/q...ed-on-the-grou
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 09:53
  #7793 (permalink)  
 
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"According to Russian media, Saki air base of Russian Navy Aviation has now been evacuated following the missile strike of Ukraine. The surviving aircraft of 43rd Independent Assault Aviation Regiment are flown to Gvardeyskoye air base in North of Simferopol, Crimea"

If the Ukrainians could hit Saki, those planes aren't in a safe place.



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Old 10th Aug 2022, 09:55
  #7794 (permalink)  
 
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Washington post are reporting it was ukrainian SOF
A Ukrainian government official told The Washington Post on Wednesday that an airfield explosion in occupied Crimea was the work of Ukrainian special forces.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, did not disclose details on how the Tuesday attack was carried out. However, the attack marks a dramatic escalation in the nearly six-month-old war, demonstrating an ability by Ukrainian forces to strike at Russia far from front lines.

The explosions rocked a Russian air base Tuesday, close to an area of beach resorts in occupied Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014.

Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces have been known to infiltrate enemy-held territory and coordinate with sympathetic locals on the ground. Guerrilla activity has been especially prevalent in the occupied southern Kherson region, just north of Crimea. In the Ukraine war, a battle for the nation’s mineral and energy wealth.

An aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially distanced Kyiv from the attack on Tuesday, however, in a nightly address to the nation Zelensky vowed to win back the territory. “Crimea is Ukrainian, and we will never give it up,” he said, without mentioning the air base strike.

Russia has said the blast was caused by an ammunition explosion and reportedly killed at least one and injured at least nine, including two children. The Ukrainian Air Force in a statement Wednesday said that nine Russian aircraft were taken out in the strikes.

The Washington Post could not independently verify the claims from either side.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, told The Post Tuesday that it appeared Ukrainian forces had carried out the strike but using a weapon not provided by the United States. U.S. officials referred additional questions about the operation to Ukraine.
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 10:23
  #7795 (permalink)  
 
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Nutty - that's a picture of The Garden Ring Street in Moscow taken in 2019.

Appreciate all your posts - some great info in them

https://www.alamy.com/russia-moscow-...impact&irgwc=1
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 10:32
  #7796 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Just throwing this into the pot. The sky was exceptionally clear and blue. No-one has yet mentioned the possibility of unintentional/accidental discharge of missile(s) etc. on the ground.
https://aviation.stackexchange.com/q...ed-on-the-grou
Two in two locations at the same time?
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 10:36
  #7797 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
Nutty - that's a picture of The Garden Ring Street in Moscow taken in 2019.

Appreciate all your posts - some great info in them

https://www.alamy.com/russia-moscow-...impact&irgwc=1
Crikey, they have got that far apologies for the error

Try this instead.


What a difference a day makes...

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1557311914493022209


..

Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Aug 2022 at 10:53.
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 11:08
  #7798 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Just throwing this into the pot. The sky was exceptionally clear and blue. No-one has yet mentioned the possibility of unintentional/accidental discharge of missile(s) etc. on the ground.
https://aviation.stackexchange.com/q...ed-on-the-grou
Err that's more-or-less Russia's explanation as to what happened.

I noted yesterday on Twitter that the timing of the attack was significant given the airbase's location close to popular tourist beaches. It wouldn't have received anywhere near the coverage had it occurred at night. Untold hundreds of Russians must have filmed the event and shared it with their mates. The attack's propaganda value could well outweigh its military impact.
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 11:09
  #7799 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Deploy ze Deutsche beach towels!
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Old 10th Aug 2022, 11:13
  #7800 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rattman
Washington post are reporting it was ukrainian SOF
Careless words cost lives - any hints of SF involvement and Russia will redouble their efforts to try and find them. Much better to run with the "new Ukrainian missile" line IMO, keep the Russkies guessing.
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