Originally Posted by
NutLoose
I am not talking about that bridge but the Antonovskiy Bridge Which is the only one connecting Kherson city to the south.
[includes military and aviation content!] 
Blowing the
Antonovskiy Bridge would cause an immediate major headache for RF in Kherson and all of the RF forces on the west side of the Dnipro would be at risk of being cut off from MSR. The remaining, single land access point would be open to access control with arty and that would be starting to look. a bit like the perils of Paulus a bit earlier and a bit further to the east. Two situations could trigger that as a play IMHO: - if Belorus tries to "assist" RF by crossing the border, then it limits the capability in the South for the RF and could relieve UF manpower and logistics slightly to whack-a-mole Lukashenko. There is an outside chance that Lukashenko may have a more competent and better-armed force complement than RF turned up with at the party, the reasons why are best explained in the following link by Perun.
- The second trigger for blowing the bridge could be any major envelopment of the UF in the east, which again actually looks unlikely in all reality unless Count Vlad adds general mobilization to the joys of living the Stalinist dream.
As far as Kerch bridge goes, yes, there is a lot of SAM defense around the peninsula, so the solution needs a bit of creativity, and that is indeed quite possible within the existing equipment and capabilities that the Ukrainians have at hand right now, by adding just a little bit of payback, Sun Tzu Style. Taking out the Kerch bridge is well past due date; anything that interdicts RF MSR is worth the effort. Under international law, the west part of that bridge is sovereign Ukraine territory, as is Crimea, irrespective of Vlads rantings.
The following is the latest in the analysis by a dude in AUS who conducts in-depth analysis that is worth the time over a beer or coffee.
It has a part at 34:30 related to the shootdown of MI17 which is news to me, but ties in some loose ends on that murderous act by the Russian forces, directly or indirectly. Perun's other presentations on economics and logistics continue to be relevant. As his analysis is pretty damning, he uses evidence of direct public statements by the side that is being examined.