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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 11th Jun 2022, 05:09
  #6261 (permalink)  
 
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Germany increased imports from Russia by 60% in first four months of 2022.

This might be just reflecting the current energy price increase. Germany is moving out of businesses with Russia and reducing imports. But they need to top off their tanks first. Gas tanks that russian controlled companies had emptied just in time for the invasion...
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Old 11th Jun 2022, 06:19
  #6262 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by MikeSnow
Russian tanks got some armor upgrades:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...289794/photo/1
So these are new fragmentary weapons against Ruskies within the area when they get hit by an overhead munition? More popcorn, please.
I think the best protective cover for the T-72 of the Russians is to park them in the Kremlin, particularly if they can fix the faulty wiring that seems to have beset the RF.
Perhaps in the alternate, this armor may contain the detonation of the tanks ammunition carousel, and lead to more impressive launches of turrets achieving greater heights. Would still expect the parking garage at the Kremlin or St Basils is much more effective at keeping thins in parage shape, and the occupants from being painted around the inside of the coffin T-72/BMP/BMD/BTRs
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Old 11th Jun 2022, 06:30
  #6263 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
This seems to be developing into a war of attrition where we see if Russia will run out of troops and trucks before they can break through the UKR lines vs UKR getting their reserves and NATO supplied HIMARS into action in sufficient numbers to hit Russian artillery and supplies.
  • Russia has a shallow pool of conscripts to put into the area, and those that are there have a bit of a morale problem, that started on day 1 and has gotten worse over time. Senior officers may need their Kevlar on backward but as yet only a few fraggings have occurred.
  • Ukraine has committed warfighters who have asked only to be given the means to defend their country from the imperialist aggressor that Putin wants Russia to be, "Putin Petrovich the Great".
  • The west and the rest of the world only needs to decide if they want Ukraine to resolve the Putin problem or if they want that on their land shortly thereafter. Pretty simple choice.
Russia has neither the manpower nor the economy to support the occupation of Ukraine; they may achieve tactical gains but the war will not end just because they park their targets further west than they were in 2014. Having alienated a complete country of some 30% of their population, the Russians have yet to have any guerilla warfare commenced within their borders, how they can assume that will not occur if they remain an occupying force is hardly one of the "unknown unknowns..."
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Old 11th Jun 2022, 07:14
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Originally Posted by fdr
So these are new fragmentary weapons against Ruskies within the area when they get hit by an overhead munition? More popcorn, please.
I think the best protective cover for the T-72 of the Russians is to park them in the Kremlin, particularly if they can fix the faulty wiring that seems to have beset the RF.
Perhaps in the alternate, this armor may contain the detonation of the tanks ammunition carousel, and lead to more impressive launches of turrets achieving greater heights. Would still expect the parking garage at the Kremlin or St Basils is much more effective at keeping thins in parage shape, and the occupants from being painted around the inside of the coffin T-72/BMP/BMD/BTRs
Those gabions were tried by ourselves and the IDF with a view to the jet from the shaped charge dispersing before they hit the armour. All they did was increase the fragmentation much to the annoyance of nearby infantry.
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Old 11th Jun 2022, 11:13
  #6265 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Less Hair
This might be just reflecting the current energy price increase. Germany is moving out of businesses with Russia and reducing imports.
Is it not the case of getting physical deliveries from RF based on the long-term supply contract prices and only the resale being closed for the market value?
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Old 11th Jun 2022, 15:25
  #6266 (permalink)  
 
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Ukraine is running out of ammo, they are going through 5 or 6 K of shells per day.

This is not WW1, and as someone says

98% of arty rounds produced, stored, transported, stored, transported, loaded, fired to no effect. $100k per single Excalibur is suddenly not that expensive.





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Old 11th Jun 2022, 15:37
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The war in Ukraine has morphed into an artillery battle, with Kyiv even more reliant than ever on heavy weaponry from the West. The country no longer has high hopes for significant support from Germany.
and that’s from Spiegel!

https://www.spiegel.de/international...8-a4c66ee50556

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Old 11th Jun 2022, 16:42
  #6268 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The French are also providing anti personnel shells

https://twitter.com/khalediskef/stat...20675157315584

There is a New Ukrainian system coming on stream, I will try to find the link

found it

https://twitter.com/EngYanyong/statu...63631853809665
Proximity fuses, that use radio to exploded near/above targets were mass produced during WW2.
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Old 11th Jun 2022, 17:44
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By 1945 most German flak shells were proximity fused with fuses being made in hidden factories around a city called Dresden, together with all sorts of precision equipment ...
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Old 11th Jun 2022, 20:07
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Husky’s have arrived and they look well pleased with them

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Old 11th Jun 2022, 20:19
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German supplied helmets work…. Crikey.

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Old 11th Jun 2022, 21:04
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German arty has been approved and is on its way.


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Old 11th Jun 2022, 21:58
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You just have to love this technical support over the phone on how to destroy a tank.


More REALLY low flying


..

Last edited by NutLoose; 11th Jun 2022 at 22:46.
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 02:03
  #6274 (permalink)  
 
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Your call is important to us. If you need assistance blowing up a Russian tank with a Javelin missile, please press 1. If you would like to provide a product testimonial please press 2. If you need refills please press 3…..
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 14:34
  #6275 (permalink)  
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Not seeing much Mig v Mig action lately. Have both sides conceded that arty is better? Or has Ukraine simply run out?
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 16:05
  #6276 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by uxb99
Not seeing much Mig v Mig action lately. Have both sides conceded that arty is better? Or has Ukraine simply run out?
You may wish to fold into your estimations the idea that (1) the Air Defense capabilities of both sides has made flying over that volume of airspace less palatable in general, and (2) that neither side has electromagnetic spectrum dominance over the battlespace.

(While I'd be interested to see the sortie generation rates for both sides, I suspect that they are keeping that as close to the vest as they can since that is Operational Detail that their other side could use to their advantage).
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Old 12th Jun 2022, 16:41
  #6277 (permalink)  
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There has been multiple footage from Ukranian sources of their helos and SU-25s in both the Kherson and Donetsk Oblasts low flying.

It may just be that, after the shock of the start of the war, a sharp learning curve, and the loss of those unlikely and/or unable to adapt in time, that the survivors are - as they say - worth having…
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 09:11
  #6278 (permalink)  
 
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This article is something to think about as this guy knows a bit what he's talking about. And yes, Baltic countries are under NATO umbrella, but does Putin care? If he beats Ukraine that is being assisted with western weapons he will get a huge ego boost out of it and have three considerations
1. NATO will not go for Baltics if Russian forces get to occupy the land area (fast moves via Suwalki gap to close Baltics from Poland and making it next to impossible for NATO countries to support Baltics as SWE+FIN are not NATO countries (see point 3)
2. Russia will beat NATO and it will be sold to Russian people that "Russia already won NATO in Ukraine" (remember the rhetorics that Russia is not in war with Ukraine but in essence with the US and the west)
3. the west and the NATO can't do anything as they are so divided, eg Turkey insisting on SWE + FIN being terrorist supporting countries and preventing them from joining NATO and at the same time Turkey is having friendly talks with Russia on buying stolen grain from the Russkies.

Originally Posted by France24
Former Russian prime minister Kasyanov: "If Ukraine falls, the Baltic states will be next,"

Kasyanov predicted the war could last for up to two years and said it is imperative that Ukraine win.
"If Ukraine falls, the Baltic states will be next," he said.
The outcome of the war will also determine Russia's future, he said.
Kasyanov said he "categorically" disagreed with French President Emmanuel Macron's suggestion that Putin should not be humiliated.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...last-two-years
Russia must be beaten in Ukraine. Period.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 10:30
  #6279 (permalink)  
 
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Several weeks back there was a flurry of discussion about what would happen when the new class of conscripts were due to be inducted (from May 1 st ?) That died down and I haven't seen any mention since, either here or in the press.

So, did those who had finished their year get sent home or kept on ? Were the new conscripts inducted and how would this have been (reasonably ) possible with so many experienced troops ( trainers ) sent to areas around Ukraine ?
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 10:57
  #6280 (permalink)  
 
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One assumes that as long as the arty keep slowly flattening the few k in front of existing lines, the infantry are targets to locate the UKR remaining at their front (to be eliminated by more artillery, aliong with any unfortunate cannon fodder). Have time expired conscripts be allowed to return home? I doubt it.

Continue until Russia runs out of artillery ammo, or UKR is supplied with enough long range to counter battery strike.

If Russia's claims about destroying needed supplies to UKR are correct, intelligence leaks are a factor.
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