Originally Posted by
ORAC
This seems to be developing into a war of attrition where we see if Russia will run out of troops and trucks before they can break through the UKR lines vs UKR getting their reserves and NATO supplied HIMARS into action in sufficient numbers to hit Russian artillery and supplies.
- Russia has a shallow pool of conscripts to put into the area, and those that are there have a bit of a morale problem, that started on day 1 and has gotten worse over time. Senior officers may need their Kevlar on backward but as yet only a few fraggings have occurred.
- Ukraine has committed warfighters who have asked only to be given the means to defend their country from the imperialist aggressor that Putin wants Russia to be, "Putin Petrovich the Great".
- The west and the rest of the world only needs to decide if they want Ukraine to resolve the Putin problem or if they want that on their land shortly thereafter. Pretty simple choice.
Russia has neither the manpower nor the economy to support the occupation of Ukraine; they may achieve tactical gains but the war will not end just because they park their targets further west than they were in 2014. Having alienated a complete country of some 30% of their population, the Russians have yet to have any guerilla warfare commenced within their borders, how they can assume that will not occur if they remain an occupying force is hardly one of the "unknown unknowns..."