Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[tdracer]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

I think that the pain will start to manifest before winter time.
If the Economist article Uncle Fred provided (a page or so up from here) is on target, the pain will begin this autumn as food supplies get tight. Food insecurity tends to have political ripple effects in any country, and a lot of countries are looking at the hold up of Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments with growing concern.
OK, pet peeve, sorry to introduce this: I'd like to see the American 'ethanol in the gas' mania reduced considerably, and have for a long time.
I am not sure if product for this year can be diverted to food versus fuel buyers, but it might take a little bit of pressure off of the food crunch if more of the corn went to food and not ethanol production. However, those contracts are probably long term in nature and may not be as fungible/liquid as one might hope such that it allows a shift in end usage.
(Do not know enough about that aspect of commodity economics to offer any further support for my idea, that's going to take a lot of research).

I'd like to see our POTUS stop bowing to the environmental lobby and open up all those oil and gas leases that he cancelled since the inauguration.
Not much chance of that though - making all his 'not my fault' claims total BS. The US was a net oil exporter before Sleepy Joe - not so much now.

[Expatrick]

Originally Posted by MikeSnow

What about the part of the country that doesn't agree with Orban? The election results were 52.52% for his party, 36.90% for the oposition. A ratio of about 3:2. And that's with his control of the media. If there was freedom of the press in Hungary, I doubt he would have won. The fact is that the EU, with a population of almost 450 million, has its sanctions package blocked by a leader that was voted by about 3 million people, or 0.66% of the EU population. That doesn't seem right

Control of the media? Rubbish! The main media organisations are based in Budapest, and the opposition held Budapest, again. 52 to 37 is a healthy margin, greater than many western elections and / or referendumsThe idea of of 0.66% blocking sanctions is ridiculous, the EU comprises 27 sovereign States. Those of us who live in Hungary are well aware of Romanian (that advanced, prosperous, incorruptible State) prejudices.

[Expatrick]

Originally Posted by ORAC

I’ll just point out that,the moment Poland is happy, Ukraine can totally cut off Hungary’s pipeline deliveries anyway - terrible how Russia missiles hit those pumping stations like that….

I am sorry, could you please explain this one to me? Thank you.

Moving on, a little, Hungary (like other States) is supporting huge numbers of refugees, if fuel is cut off how can we continue to do that? One of the paradoxes of this situation is that Ukraine is demanding enormous amounts of support, both for the war and for the (hopefully) subsequent rebuild) wihile demanding that those who they expect to fund this should trash their economies.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Expatrick

.... Romanian (that advanced, prosperous, incorruptible State) prejudices.

Well played. I had to get a tissue to blot the sarcasm that began dripping off of the screen.

[Expatrick]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Well played. I had to get a tissue to blot the sarcasm that began dripping off of the screen.

Derived no doubt from your extensive knowledge of the region!

[ORAC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ne-2022-06-02/

Sweden to supply more military aid including anti-ship missiles to Ukraine

Stockholm June 2 (Reuters) - Sweden will provide Ukraine with more economic aid and military equipment, including anti-ship missiles, rifles and anti-tank weapons, Finance Minister Mikael Damberg and Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist said on Thursday.

"The proposals that are submitted (to parliament) mean that allocated funds for the central government budget will increase by SEK 1.0 billion ($102 million) in 2022," the Nordic country's finance ministry said in a statement.

"In solidarity with Ukraine, and as part of the international response to Russia's actions, the government sees a continuing need to support Ukraine," it said…

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by tdracer

I'd like to see our POTUS stop bowing to the environmental lobby and open up all those oil and gas leases that he cancelled since the inauguration.
Not much chance of that though - making all his 'not my fault' claims total BS. The US was a net oil exporter before Sleepy Joe - not so much now.

In a way is that a bad thing, at some point the world is going to fall off the cliff energy wise and conflicts like we are watching now will become sadly more commonplace, at that point those that have held on to their oil and gas assets while burning everyone else’s will be in a stronger place.

If this war has one good thing to come out of this lousy war, it will be to force the west to embrace alternate energy sources and green solutions enabling them to wean themselves off Russian as well as other countries oil and gas.

The other thing that will hopefully come out of all of this is Russia will realise that unlike the time when they rolled through countries like Poland, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia etc, the realisation will sink In that, that time has now gone and they will fight back.

I also cannot get over the Russians sense that they will never lose wars… they lost In Afghanistan big time.

[ramble on]

Originally Posted by Expatrick

I am sorry, could you please explain this one to me? Thank you.

Moving on, a little, Hungary (like other States) is supporting huge numbers of refugees, if fuel is cut off how can we continue to do that? One of the paradoxes of this situation is that Ukraine is demanding enormous amounts of support, both for the war and for the (hopefully) subsequent rebuild) wihile demanding that those who they expect to find this should trash their economies.

The general Ukranian is NOT demanding anything {personal insult removed}. They are asking, seeking, pleading and hoping......many on the front lines are tough, stoic and resolved to die if needs be - young and old - teenagers to 60 somethings....men and women.

We should be grateful for the gift of example their budding democracy gave us......and standing against this evil genocide and not acting like pissweak almond milk latte sippers with our eyes averted.
Friendly reminder: we can disagree without being disagreeable.
Carry on.
T28B

[Expatrick]

The purpose of sanctions, as explained clearly by the Hungarian FM is to "hurt those who we wish to punish".

I notice that no one has reacted to the information I gave previously about Serbia.

[Expatrick]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Well played. I had to get a tissue to blot the sarcasm that began dripping off of the screen.

And, of course, the UK is really doing its best for the refugees (not).

[henra]

Originally Posted by macmp419

Good news, it is only going to be a matter of months
One Ukrainian journalist is less than impressed it would seem.

In all fairness it has to be said that the German Army doesn't even possess anything as modern and potent as these IRIS-T systems. They will have to be new manufactured and will not have been planned, e.g. Diehl BGT will have to aquire parts for producing and assembling these additional systems. Unlike some of the other Equipment sagas for Ukraine this delay is probably genuine.
On a positive note: Once Ukarine has these systems no enemy aircraft will survive within a radius of ~20miles. No matter which altitude. Extremely lethal.

[B Fraser]

Originally Posted by Expatrick

And, of course, the UK is really doing its best for the refugees (not).

A view not shared by my Ukranian friend and the Ukrainian refugees who will be at our jubilee lunches this weekend.

[Expatrick]

Originally Posted by B Fraser

A view not shared by my Ukranian friend and the Ukrainian refugees who will be at our jubilee lunches this weekend.

Fair enough, they are some of the lucky few.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status...2e9DLMHY3wj-Pw

The Russian 35th army, transferred from Far East and stationed in Izyum, is successfully destroyed by its own army command as evidenced from this full of irony and snark report received and shared by a Russian livejournal blogger.

https://wartranslated.com/russian-35...s-own-command/

[ORAC]

Another own goal for Russia….

“New poll says 52% of Germans want American nuclear weapons to stay in Germany, vs 39% for withdrawal.

Eyebrow-raising : 64% of Green voters want them to stay.”….

https://www.tagesschau.de/investigat...hland-101.html

[etudiant]

Chinese academic thinks the Ukraine/Russia situation is a preview for a Taiwan/China event;
https://www.readingthechinadream.com...n-ukraine.html

[ORAC]

Swedish government crisis with PM threatening to resign - parliament votes split 50/50 - with one swing vote held by a Kurd against NATO membership and any concessions to Turkey…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...338664961.html

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Swedish government crisis with PM threatening to resign - parliament votes split 50/50 - with one swing vote held by a Kurd against NATO membership and any concessions to Turkey…
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...338664961.html

That one migh belongs in that other thread about Finns/Swedes joining NATO.
Very interesting news item, though, thanks!

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by etudiant

Chinese academic thinks the Ukraine/Russia situation is a preview for a Taiwan/China event;
https://www.readingthechinadream.com...n-ukraine.html

Interesting article, if the translation is faithful to the original.

Now some people are saying that most countries in the world are supporting Ukraine, so China has to choose sides too so as not to be left behind. This is the thinking of a pawn, not a chess master. In the world game, there are only great powers, not "most countries." The great powers are the players, and the "most countries" are the pawns. The destiny of pawns is to be sacrificed for the needs of the great powers. When China was a pawn, this is what happened to China, but at the present juncture we are a player, which is nothing to be ashamed of. If Trump comes back and the Sino-American relationship goes south, will Russia support China? Putin has said that he would watch from the sidelines, which is the thinking of a great power.

The author made an allusion to the Eurozone incorporating Russia into it and being on China's doorstep, which for China is a bad hand to be forced to play. That is the position I was advocating for in the 90's : with the wall down, embrace Russia, bring them into team NATO, because the real power problem is in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean littoral) ... and nobody wanted to hear it. (Yes, I burned the rejection slips in frustration).
The author's glib "go take Taiwan" line seems to overlook that a border crossing op (Russia/Ukraine) is a whole different animal than an amphibious landing. Anything beyond this probably belongs in the South China Sea Gathering Storm thread.

[MikeSnow]

Originally Posted by Expatrick

Control of the media? Rubbish! The main media organisations are based in Budapest, and the opposition held Budapest, again. 52 to 37 is a healthy margin, greater than many western elections and / or referendumsThe idea of of 0.66% blocking sanctions is ridiculous, the EU comprises 27 sovereign States. Those of us who live in Hungary are well aware of Romanian (that advanced, prosperous, incorruptible State) prejudices.

Not entirely on topic, if at all, but yes, the situation in Romania regarding freedom of the press is not very good either. Most of the media institutions, expecially the TV stations, are also controlled by the politicians in power. Still, Reporters sans frontières ranks freedom of the press in Hungary as 85th out of 180 countries, with a score of 59.8, significantly worse than Romania, ranked as 56th out of 180, with a score of 68.46. Since you mentioned corruption, currently Romania and Hungary are quite similar. Romania's corruption perception index is 45, only slightly better than Hungary's 43, and Romania is ranked 66th out of 180 countries, while Hungary is ranked 73rd, according to Transparency International. And, just as in Hungary, the opposition in Romania basically has no chance to win the elections. It is only able to win in some of the larger cities, because the population there is more likely to be better informed. The situation is bad enough that I strongly consider leaving the country, as I don't see any chance of improvement on the short and medium term.

Back to the topic of the Russian invasion, I was extremly surprised that Orban still won the elections, even after his friend Putin invaded Ukraine. I thought he wouldn't have a chance after the invasion. Then I read an article about how the press in Hungary steered the narrative regarding Putin's invasion, and somehow made the oposition look like the bad guys that want war, and portrayed Orban as being the one that wants peace. Unfortunately, it worked. If you are curious, this is the article, passed through Google Translate: https://www-hotnews-ro.translate.goo..._x_tr_pto=wapp . Yes, I know, it's from the Romanian press, so it can't be trusted. But most of the information in that article comes from Péter Krekó, a Hungarian social psychologist and political scientist, so maybe you will give it a chance.

Originally Posted by Expatrick

I notice that no one has reacted to the information I gave previously about Serbia.

The difference is Serbia is not (yet) an EU country and can't veto the EU sanctions. But yes, I don't like Serbia's attitude regarding this conflict either. And, before being accused of prejudice again, I'm half Serb.​​​​