Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[rattman]

Originally Posted by uxb99

If Russia uses a nuke on Ukraine and fallout enters a NATO country does that constitute an attack?

Believe they have stated that nuclear fallout over a nato country will be considered an attack on nato

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by uxb99

If Russia uses a nuke on Ukraine and fallout enters a NATO country does that constitute an attack?

Under Article V, probably not, but if there is a collateral effect like you describe the usual NATO approach is to do "immediate consultation" with all NATO members (probably at the ministerial level). Such a consultation might result in a NATO declaration of an attack, or might result in something else.
There is no simple answer to this. It's politics.

[langleybaston]

Pray for a reasonable westerly at medium altitudes, and then the good guys will only get a small dose once it has been all the way round. In fact a small one very near the Russian border might not necessarily be bad: a. it might miss and b. the rubbish Russian Met. Service [believe me] might in turn get rubbished.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

Pray for a reasonable westerly at medium altitudes, and then the good guys will only get a small dose once it has been all the way round. In fact a small one very near the Russian border might not necessarily be bad: a. it might miss and b. the rubbish Russian Met. Service [believe me] might in turn get rubbished.

You have reminded me of a weapons class exercise (decades ago) in first assessing the weather before laying down the template of "how many died" as regards a nuclear hit on the Treasure Island Naval Station (SF Bay / Oakland Area).
I imagine that if one were to use chemical weapons (example Iran-Iraq War, 1980's) you'd want a pretty good Met Team around before you fired, to make sure that conditions were not such that it would all blow back your way once they landed!

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by Electreng

The WELT article referred to in this tweet doesn't say anything of the sort.

Which tweet, there are several ? it would help if you identified it.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by rattman

Thats missiles not systems, thats 96 individual missiles for thier batteries

That's a cost of $ 12.5 million per missile which seems phenomenal .

[MPN11]

*non Aviation*

So the RF is wobbling?
Tactical retreats? Bridge borked? And ... Grain release agreement signed [if that works without some interference].
Have a nice weekend, Vladimir.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/stat...Qe-scGHkk8vkNw

Russians in Kherson region are trying to equip a pontoon crossing across the Dnieper, not being able to promptly restore the damaged Antonovsky bridge

The river in the region is 300m wide.

[etudiant]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Russians in Kherson region are trying to equip a pontoon crossing across the Dnieper, not being able to promptly restore the damaged Antonovsky bridge

The river in the region is 300m wide.

Seems fairly routine for a capable team, this is not a raging torrent type stream, plus at a pinch the Antonovsky bridge pillars could help as anchor points.
Still ugly for the troops stranded there, seeing their supply line so tenuous and knowing that that is the only way out.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Under Article V, probably not, but if there is a collateral effect like you describe the usual

Lindsey Graham and other senators said he would consider nuclear fallout hitting a nato country a direct attack on them, I dont know american politics really, but I get the impression he has a quite a lot of a pull and controls a substantial group of a senators

[ORAC]

The logistic collapse and withdrawal of the Russian forces was forecast for mid-August, seems to have started early…..

https://twitter.com/markhertling/sta...Qe-scGHkk8vkNw

Ukraine refuses the enemy's request for a green corridor for thousands of soldiers to exit Kherson region. Ukraine demands their surrender of troops and equipment otherwise they will be eradicated.

[ORAC]

I think this over thinks it, as if the US and NSTO had agency here.

The aim is to aid UKR defend itself. What they need, when they need it and how to support are questions for UKR to answer.

For NATO the answer is give them what they want, when they ask for it - and let them decide what is, or isn’t, victory.

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/07/...aine-strategy/

4 Questions the US and NATO need to ask, and answer, about their Ukraine strategy

[rattman]

Starting to suspect the russian army might be done without a major mobilisation

There are reports coming out that theres a group of russians surrounded near kherson, russia has requested a green corridor to allow them to withdraw. This has unsurpisingly been rejected. It was reported by Euromaiden so must looked at with idea it could be 100% propaganda . The numbers surrounded varies form a a couple of hundred to 1000 +

Twitter

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by rattman

Lindsey Graham and other senators said he would consider nuclear fallout hitting a nato country a direct attack on them, I dont know american politics really, but I get the impression he has a quite a lot of a pull and controls a substantial group of a senators

He sometimes lets his mouth overwork his ability to deliver (of course he does, he's a politician) - he doesn't set policy, but he can certainly provide some influence. (His party is not in power, though, so his amount of "pull" is limited).
I'll note that it is the Executive branch that needs to lead on something like this (and then work with the Congress in due course)

To sum up: Just because Graham said so doesn't mean much.

[Obba]

Interesting view point from Denys Davydov - Airline Pilot...My name is Denys, and I am Boeing 737 Captain. Before I used to fly ATR 42/72.
Go to 1:10 for his views on the damage to the bridge.

Update from Ukraine | Ukraine is circling ruzzians near Kherson - YouTube

IMO a recommended YT channel to watch

[dead_pan]

Denys is okay but he does tend to pick up on talking points doing the rounds on social media, without any real depth of analysis. He was one pushing the line that Severodnetsk was a cunning trap laid by the Ukrainians, which turned out not to be the case.

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by rattman

There are reports coming out that theres a group of russians surrounded near kherson, russia has requested a green corridor to allow them to withdraw. This has unsurpisingly been rejected. It was reported by Euromaiden so must looked at with idea it could be 100% propaganda . The numbers surrounded varies form a a couple of hundred to 1000 +

Hmm I'm calling bunk on this, unless it gets corroborated by other outlets.

We'll find out in due course if there is a general movement of troops into or out of the city.

[FUMR]

Personally I would give them safe passage out on condition all arms/hardware is left behind.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

Hmm I'm calling bunk on this, unless it gets corroborated by other outlets.

We'll find out in due course if there is a general movement of troops into or out of the city.

Guess we will know soon apparently given 24 hours to surrender before the big guns open up. Arestovich has said it, guess its going to be as close as we will get for a while

Originally Posted by FUMR

Personally I would give them safe passage out on condition all arms/hardware is left behind.

Nope surrender, thats a thousand + ukrainians they can get back in prisioner exchange

[MPN11]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62276392

"Explosions have rocked a key Ukrainian port just a day after Kyiv and Moscow reached a landmark deal to allow the resumption of grain exports. Two missiles hit the port city of Odesa in the early hours of Saturday morning, Ukraine's military said.

In a post to social media, the Ukrainian military's southern command centre said two Kalibr missiles hit the port, while two more were shot down by air defence systems."