Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Kadyrov threatening Poland. This guy's a Kremlin puppet so he wouldn't be making any statements of his own. At least not without a prior information from Moscow. Are they really actively trying to forget a certain treaty organisation?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Looks like the battle for Severodonetsk is about to begin…
https://understandingwar.org/backgro...essment-may-25
….Russian forces seem to be prioritizing efforts to cut the two highways to Severodonetsk over launching offensive operations on Bakhmut at this time.[16] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai refuted reports that Russian forces had cut off or blocked the T1302 highway on May 25.[17]
Russian forces are unlikely to completely isolate Ukrainian forces from GLOCs just by seizing the southwestern T1303 and T1302 highways to Severodonetsk given the network of alternate if smaller roads in the region and will need to block or disrupt Bakhmut and Siversk to complete the Luhansk cauldron.
Russian efforts to isolate Severodonetsk and Lysychansk may not be well synchronized in time and space with an impending direct Russian assault on Severdonetsk, although it is too soon to tell. The Russians are likely some days away from even cutting off the GLOCs to Severdonetsk and Lysychansk, and it would likely take some time for the disruption of those GLOCs to affect the cities’ defenders’ abilities to continue fighting.
The intensity of Russian artillery and air attack, however, combined with the massing of Russian forces drawn from elsewhere in theater for the assault on Severodonetsk suggests that the assault could be launched before the GLOCs have been cut or before their disruption could have a material effect.
The drive to cut the GLOCs could also be an effort to create an outer encirclement ring, however, to prevent Ukrainian forces from attempting to reinforce Severodonetsk as it is attacked or to relieve it if it is isolated or falls.
Russian forces may need to conduct a ground offensive on Severodonetsk in upcoming days to maintain their pace after committing a significant portion of personnel, artillery, aviation, and logistics to the front.[18]
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported that Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the vicinity of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk on May 25.[19] Haidai stated that Russian forces will lose the momentum of their heavy shelling and motivation if they do not launch an attack on Severodonetsk by Sunday.[20]
Haidai reported that Russian forces already committed over 10,000 troops - approximately 25 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) composed on 300 to 500 servicemen each - and military equipment including S-400 surface-to-air missile systems.[21] Russian military commanders likely had to withdraw these forces from other axes, slowing down Russian advances in Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Russian forces have also reportedly reached mortar range of Severodonetsk.[22]….
https://understandingwar.org/backgro...essment-may-25
….Russian forces seem to be prioritizing efforts to cut the two highways to Severodonetsk over launching offensive operations on Bakhmut at this time.[16] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai refuted reports that Russian forces had cut off or blocked the T1302 highway on May 25.[17]
Russian forces are unlikely to completely isolate Ukrainian forces from GLOCs just by seizing the southwestern T1303 and T1302 highways to Severodonetsk given the network of alternate if smaller roads in the region and will need to block or disrupt Bakhmut and Siversk to complete the Luhansk cauldron.
Russian efforts to isolate Severodonetsk and Lysychansk may not be well synchronized in time and space with an impending direct Russian assault on Severdonetsk, although it is too soon to tell. The Russians are likely some days away from even cutting off the GLOCs to Severdonetsk and Lysychansk, and it would likely take some time for the disruption of those GLOCs to affect the cities’ defenders’ abilities to continue fighting.
The intensity of Russian artillery and air attack, however, combined with the massing of Russian forces drawn from elsewhere in theater for the assault on Severodonetsk suggests that the assault could be launched before the GLOCs have been cut or before their disruption could have a material effect.
The drive to cut the GLOCs could also be an effort to create an outer encirclement ring, however, to prevent Ukrainian forces from attempting to reinforce Severodonetsk as it is attacked or to relieve it if it is isolated or falls.
Russian forces may need to conduct a ground offensive on Severodonetsk in upcoming days to maintain their pace after committing a significant portion of personnel, artillery, aviation, and logistics to the front.[18]
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported that Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the vicinity of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk on May 25.[19] Haidai stated that Russian forces will lose the momentum of their heavy shelling and motivation if they do not launch an attack on Severodonetsk by Sunday.[20]
Haidai reported that Russian forces already committed over 10,000 troops - approximately 25 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) composed on 300 to 500 servicemen each - and military equipment including S-400 surface-to-air missile systems.[21] Russian military commanders likely had to withdraw these forces from other axes, slowing down Russian advances in Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Russian forces have also reportedly reached mortar range of Severodonetsk.[22]….
Okay I more had in mind an armed intervention rather than a vanilla peacekeeping mission. My point was, given the rhetoric from various western leaders that Putin must not be seen to win, how far they will let things go if Russian forces do start to get the upper hand (not to mention the whole grain issue)?
Alas they didn't elaborate in the discussion as to the scale, mission etc of any such force - it was more a passing comment which piqued my interest. I was intrigued as to whether such a deployment is now likely to be actively considered in any future confrontation (Moldova?), given what we now know about Russia's capabilities, limits of action regarding escalation etc, and, perhaps more importantly, what Putin now knows about the same.
Do you really think that a two battalion speed bump would have stopped Putin? I doubt it.
Of course we'll never know as the political will to do that never materialized in the time when it would have been needed.
Of course we'll never know as the political will to do that never materialized in the time when it would have been needed.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...437242880.html
According to Arestovych: the “Old Europe” block (France, Germany, Italy) + Hungary (which has its own separate interest) is now trying to slow down the necessary heavy arms supplies to Ukraine deliberately to prevent any possibility of Ukraine’s victory……
According to Arestovych: the “Old Europe” block (France, Germany, Italy) + Hungary (which has its own separate interest) is now trying to slow down the necessary heavy arms supplies to Ukraine deliberately to prevent any possibility of Ukraine’s victory……
US Defence Intelligence agency assess that less than 40% of Russian missiles fired during the war in Ukraine have hit their intended targets. 20-30% fail to launch or crash in flight and many miss aiming points.
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-r...a-show-1709388
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-r...a-show-1709388
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...437242880.html
According to Arestovych: the “Old Europe” block (France, Germany, Italy) + Hungary (which has its own separate interest) is now trying to slow down the necessary heavy arms supplies to Ukraine deliberately to prevent any possibility of Ukraine’s victory……
According to Arestovych: the “Old Europe” block (France, Germany, Italy) + Hungary (which has its own separate interest) is now trying to slow down the necessary heavy arms supplies to Ukraine deliberately to prevent any possibility of Ukraine’s victory……
"The British Prime Minister wrote a congratulatory letter to Viktor Orbán, commenting on the “fantastic relations” between the two countries and the planned cooperation on energy security. Johnson referred to the historical ties and common interests of the two countries, as well as the direct relations between the Hungarian and British people. He pointed out that the formation of the new Hungarian government comes at a critical time for Euro-Atlantic security when Europe and NATO need to show unity in the face of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The British Prime Minister underscored the importance of the planned sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons while acknowledging that Hungary faces unique challenges in terms of energy security. To this end, he offered the support of the UK."
The opinion on US support is, if correct, reminiscent of Kruschev's comment -
"The support given by America is in the nature of that given by the rope to a hanging man".
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Is it me, but are the Ukrainians temporarily on the back foot because possibly the Russians did destroy a lot of Western aid thus cutting the advantages the Ukrainians had at the front, and with the lack of heavy arty they are forced to sit in their positions and take it without the means to counter it with the longer range guns provided. I also feel the Russians are improving on their propaganda and swamping the likes of Twitter. It also does no good all these Countries like Italy, etc and Kissenger telling them they should simply hand over their territory.
Who needs enemies when you have friends like this
Who needs enemies when you have friends like this
Is it me, but are the Ukrainians temporarily on the back foot because possibly the Russians did destroy a lot of Western aid thus cutting the advantages the Ukrainians had at the front, and with the lack of heavy arty they are forced to sit in their positions and take it without the means to counter it with the longer range guns provided. I also feel the Russians are improving on their propaganda and swamping the likes of Twitter. It also does no good all these Countries like Italy, etc and Kissenger telling them they should simply hand over their territory.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
The other factor being the Russians are now limiting their action to Donbas where they have long established supply dumps, rail links and short transit times, hence being able to conduct mass artillery barrages in line with their doctrine.
If they try and push further east across the Donetsk, or towards Odessa, their logistic failings will predominate again - especially now Ukraine is using Switchblade and other loitering weapons.
If they try and push further east across the Donetsk, or towards Odessa, their logistic failings will predominate again - especially now Ukraine is using Switchblade and other loitering weapons.
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So it might make sense to pull back preventing being cut off and surrounded, then retake the offensive in cutting off their supply lines?
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I dont know if there is any truth in this, I sincerely hope not.
Germany....yet again. renaging on promises to Poland to backfill their armour in return for sending tanks to the Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/poli...nk-deliveries/
Germany....yet again. renaging on promises to Poland to backfill their armour in return for sending tanks to the Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/poli...nk-deliveries/
I dont know if there is any truth in this, I sincerely hope not.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...33965279166467
Germany....yet again. renaging on promises to Poland to backfill their armour in return for sending tanks to the Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/poli...nk-deliveries/
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...33965279166467
Germany....yet again. renaging on promises to Poland to backfill their armour in return for sending tanks to the Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/poli...nk-deliveries/
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"Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
I don't know if there is any truth in this, I sincerely hope not.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...33965279166467
Germany....yet again. reneging on promises to Poland to backfill their armour in return for sending tanks to the Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/poli...nk-deliveries/"
I don't know if there is any truth in this, I sincerely hope not.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...33965279166467
Germany....yet again. reneging on promises to Poland to backfill their armour in return for sending tanks to the Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/poli...nk-deliveries/"
Sounds a bit like. If you are winning we will agree to send you stuff but once you start loosing we are not interested as we fear Putin. I think we will be interested soon, very soon.
More likely they have been losing for a while and the propaganda has been painting a rosy picture.
Without NATO help they will loose. The question is what will Russia win and can it keep what it's won?
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Nice bit of business for the US there, with more to follow no doubt.
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Iskanders to Belarus
This does look an excellent opportunity to me, for the NATO to step in and destroy that stuff in Belarus, the first moment a launch has been sent off to Ukraine.
This does look an excellent opportunity to me, for the NATO to step in and destroy that stuff in Belarus, the first moment a launch has been sent off to Ukraine.