Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by fdr

The question will be how long before the world starts to consider Russia to be a country that should not be shunned and censured.

We're already seeing increased signs that some countries wavering with regard to sanctions and Ukraine's war aims, no doubt acutely aware of the growing economic impact of a prolonged conflict. I suspect the likes of Germany and others thought that the conflict would be over in a matter of weeks with few casualties, with Russia prevailing and then quietening the rhetoric down, meaning that the sanctions agreed would be short-lived.

The question many western governments are now grappling with is are they prepared to crater their economies for the sake of Ukraine? Tricky one that.

[henra]

Originally Posted by fdr

Russia is more akin to North Korea as far as I can see, so 70 years + may be a fitting result, might give Russia time to learn some international ettiquette vice brutality.

Why a fixed duration?! How does that incentivise a change for the better?! Why punish the now young or even unborn generation even though they might (and it appears they are indeed not) not be so happy with what Putin/Russia is currently doing. Frustration is rarely a good advisor in international politics. It was the Versailles Contract that lay foundation to Hitler's getting into Power and all the Human catastrophy that resulted from this.
Cut Russia's access to Money and Tech now. Embargoe China and India if they continue to support Russia with Money or Tech. It's now that it counts. Who knows what will be in 30 or 40 Years!?

[Expatrick]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

The question many western governments are now grappling with is are they prepared to crater their economies for the sake of Ukraine? Tricky one that.

Particularly, in the case of the oil embargo, this

More Russian oil than ever before heading for China, India amid sanctions.
Asia overtook Europe as the largest buyer for the first time last month, and that gap is set to widen in May


Sharon Cho | Bloomberg
Last Updated at May 27, 2022 14:35 IST

[NutLoose]

The brutality of trench warfare

Twitter

Russia appears to be running out of UAV’s and are resorting to using their fire service drones.

Twitter

[Herod]

The question many western governments are now grappling with is are they prepared to crater their economies for the sake of Ukraine? Tricky one that.

Not tricky at all. Can you think of a better option? Economic crater now as opposed to a radioactive one in five years time.

[WideScreen]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

.......
Meanwhile Colonel No 46 departs this mortal life..

More losses for Vladimir Putin’s forces in Ukraine as 46th colonel is killed (msn.com)


..

Not only this Colonel was with 60 a reservist, though just earlier another high-ranking (Major General) in a SU-25's for close air support was shot down/killed together with his also previously retired wingman, both at 63. How is it possible, they think, they are at the top of their physical/mental performance to successfully fly combat missions in wartime, at that age........

[Fitter2]

So - Dobby has now resorted to calling up the old men who 'can operate the new 'high-tech equipment'. Like the antique tanks because he has run out of the newer ones. You know it's genius strategy.

[NutLoose]

First reported Australian Bushmaster loss, it shows they are being used and appreciated though
​​​​​​.


https://twitter.com/hashtag/bushmast...=hashtag_click

[etudiant]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

You keep missing the word MINORITY, they were a minority right up until Russia moved in and forced parts of the population out, and as alluded to above IT IS NOT Russia, it is Ukraine and Russia has NO right being in there period..

That was never an issue, the Russian speakers were clearly a minority in the Ukraine, albeit not in the eastern regions.
Afaik, the fraction of Russian speaking Ukrainians was in the 30% range for the whole country and a clear majority out east before the wars started. So a local insurrection there is quite plausible, with or without outside help.
The share today, after the removal of Crimea and emigration, whether voluntary or otherwise, is much less, probably in the 20% range of a smaller population, down from the mid 40MM in the 2000s to the 30+MM today.

[NutLoose]

USA to provide long range rocket systems, these could be a game changer as they could reach Sevastopol, the bridge, their artillery and probably even Moscow, though I doubt that will happen.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...wWLQZPZZNkcP-0

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

USA to provide long range rocket systems, these could be a game changer as they could reach Sevastopol, the bridge, their artillery and probably even Moscow, though I doubt that will happen.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...wWLQZPZZNkcP-0

Good, the UF needs to interdict the MSR. It hardly seems fair that Team Rouge gets to lob missiles at Ukraine without a bit of disincentive. There are some great bridges across the Don, and Kerch, and the rail into Belgorod, Volgograd, Platov, and lots of parade lineup SUs and MiGs near by...

The west is going to have a bill for this, no matter what, and pulling the bandaid of Team Rouge now will still have a lower cost than waiting for the Baltics or Poland to be threatened. Appeasement doesn't work, at least it didn't in '36, '37, '38 etc... that's where the "line in the sand" comes into it's own.

Pukins newly reconstituted USSR is tanking, forget about the propped up ruble. They have managed to Q them selves, (Germany and co's reversal notwithstanding) China's bubble is bursting, food supplies and fertiliser are getting way low, it's going to be an interesting year or two. Does the world want Putin glaring into Poland or Ukraine? All Ukraine is asking for is the means to defeat evil, not much to ask for in the big scheme of things.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

First reported Australian Bushmaster loss, it shows they are being used and appreciated though
​​​​​​.


https://twitter.com/hashtag/bushmast...=hashtag_click

"... cigarette lighter wiring fault...?"

dropping a 152 or 122 beside a bushy is going to need lots of body to fix, avoiding the noise and nuisance seems to be highly desirable, anti drone needs are not trivial.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/st...IujhSfLXz17QBQ

“When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back.”….

“Russian progress around Severdonetsk results largely from the fact that Moscow has concentrated forces, equipment, and materiel drawn from all other axes on this one objective. Russian troops have been unable to make progress on any other axes for weeks and have largely not even tried to do so. Ukrainian defenders have inflicted fearful casualties on the Russian attackers around Severodonetsk even so. Moscow will not be able to recoup large amounts of effective combat power even if it seizes Severdonetsk, because it is expending that combat power frivolously on taking the city.”…

“The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far.”….

“Russian morale, already low, may drop further if such behavior is widespread and continues. If Russian troops stuck on secondary axes lose their will to fight as the Battle for Severdonetsk consumes much of the available Russian offensive combat power, Ukraine may have a chance to launch significant counteroffensives with good prospects for success.”….

[Herod]

I see the Russian Ambassador to UK has told the BBC that Russia will not use tactical nukes. If that is the same line as "Russia will not invade Ukraine", well....

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by Herod

I see the Russian Ambassador to UK has told the BBC that Russia will not use tactical nukes. If that is the same line as "Russia will not invade Ukraine", well....

Though, interestingly, the ambassador did make a couple of off-piste references to the "war" in Ukraine, which won't win him any brownie points from the Kremlin.

Worth watching the whole interview here: BBC iPlayer - Sunday Morning - 29/05/2022

[fdr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

“When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back.”….

“Russian progress around Severdonetsk results largely from the fact that Moscow has concentrated forces, equipment, and materiel drawn from all other axes on this one objective. Russian troops have been unable to make progress on any other axes for weeks and have largely not even tried to do so. Ukrainian defenders have inflicted fearful casualties on the Russian attackers around Severodonetsk even so. Moscow will not be able to recoup large amounts of effective combat power even if it seizes Severdonetsk, because it is expending that combat power frivolously on taking the city.”…

“The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far.”….

“Russian morale, already low, may drop further if such behavior is widespread and continues. If Russian troops stuck on secondary axes lose their will to fight as the Battle for Severdonetsk consumes much of the available Russian offensive combat power, Ukraine may have a chance to launch significant counteroffensives with good prospects for success.”….

That would be in keeping with the old USSR (er Russia trying to be USSR again) doctrine per US Army references... Given the hiding, they have received so far, the Rouge team may be pretty light on reserves, and that would make for a possible decisive outcome IF they can be defeated in place (again). Time to push as much artillery and rocketry as possible into the area, the west needs to ante up or pay dearly in the not too distant future for our parsimony. Letting Russia succeed at genocide would be a disgrace to all those that profess concern yet cared more about their oil 'n gas supplies.

Interesting to note that Russian lawmakers are now talking about the de-Nazification of Poland... How that makes servile appeasement and self-interest acceptable is beyond my pay grade.



Things may be really tough around Severodonetsk, but it isn't without severe losses to Russia as well, this could be a hail mary from Pukin, his tactic to shatter the Red army has been highly effective, he is approaching 30% of originally applied forces being killed, and whatever the number of injuries, it is substantial, at least that again (1:1- 1:4.... that's a lot of unhappy little green campers). Apart from lacking trucks and tanks, and IFVs and the suchlike, he is probably starting to get short of wheelchairs and prosthetics for his replacement forces.

Each MBT is 3 crew, APC/IFV is 10-11, trucks are 1-2... etc....

AFV/IFV/MBT loss rates for Team Rouge are back to the great old days, they are pushing hard at whatever they are doing, this is deffo a critical phase, hoping that UF has the capacity to go and hit them on their MSR and put them back into their own turf.

[graphs are of visually confirmed losses, reported by oryx and charted by Tim Rolf of engineered data. (They are conservative values)]

Note that Rouge at EOY 2021 had around 174 BTGs on strength and attacked with 120 BTG's, or around 2/3rds of their combat troops, the rest remain needed in place to ensure harmony within the worker's paradise. The system was rotten to the core, literally, and these BTGs were unlikely to be near normal strength, which is 600-800 troops per BTG, and around 10 MBTs, and around 40 IFV/APC etc... By those measures, Rouge lost at least 50 BTGs worth of MBTs so far, and around 30 BTGs inventory of IFV/APCs. They are apparently now trying to conserve vehicles at the cost of a higher fatality rate, and that is with the constraints that they have a lag in getting replacement troops up and ready to place targets on their chests. Not the time to be giving in on supporting these people.


For those interested in metrics and graphs, please open the spoiler.

Spoiler

 

 



[NutLoose]

How will they ever win against people like this.

Twitter

[Geriaviator]

Sad side to the story is that six or seven farmers have already been killed by mines/abandoned ordnance, others badly injured, and their machinery destroyed -- that is, the machinery the Russians have not stolen.

[Sue Vêtements]

I read that many farmers in Northern France have modified their tractors by placing sheets of heavy steel underneath as they're still digging up ordinance . . . from the First World War !

Iron Harvest

[Big Pistons Forever]

It seems that the future is becoming clearer. Russia can only advance by concentrating their forces on increasingly smaller fronts, now effectively only a few tens of miles wide. Ukraine can't overcome the significant numerical advantage of the Russian. So far Ukrainian attempts to delimit the battle field have been very successful but they are at the point of diminishing returns. This is a recipe for WW1 style stalemate on the Donbas border.

Sadly I think that despite all the brave talk the Western powers, and especially the US would be quite happy with a stalemate to further diminish Russian power and influence but without the danger of Russia being backed into a corner where Russian precipitate action(s) could spiral out of control. The biggest losers will of course be the Ukrainians