Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Earplugs on the list of demands?
As much as I wish the Kyiv Independent numbers are accurate, I am afraid they are inflated. 205 planes? 170 helicopters? I´d rather stick to Orxy for a conservative assessment. Same for the UK daily intel update. Imho, way too optimistic. This will be a long bloody slog. Too early to tell who will wear down first. I am sure the Russians can still draw on some serious reserves. They could dig in, hold what they have and keep harassing the rest of Ukraine for years until the West gets tired. Just like in 2014.
At the moment the Donbas is a meat grinder. Ukrainians loosing lots of service members since Russians are outgunning them by a huge margin. Ukrainians need a lot more firepower to hold the Orcs back.
For the sake of Ukraine I hope I am too pessimistic.
At the moment the Donbas is a meat grinder. Ukrainians loosing lots of service members since Russians are outgunning them by a huge margin. Ukrainians need a lot more firepower to hold the Orcs back.
For the sake of Ukraine I hope I am too pessimistic.
This is the picture from this site: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Vienna_Award
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 25th May 2022 at 13:43.
If you are asking for armed intervention, that's another matter.
General Sir Richard Barron posted
Of course we'll never know as the political will to do that never materialized in the time when it would have been needed.
For NutLoose
Sadly though the peacekeeping force should have went in when Russia announced its intentions to do the same. that would have stopped the war on day one.
The political will to do that was utterly absent in "The West" for an expanse of months where the mobilization was happening right in front of everyone's faces.
In hindsight... it might have been a preventative, or it might have been treated as a casus belli. It could have gone either way.
Think also of how differently the first 48 hours would have been were there a NATO no-fly zone/combat air patrol/Air Defense Patrol (Typhoons, F-16's, F-35's, etc) over central and western Ukraine. Easier to do than boots on the ground, but still not an option exercised. And what a mess the RoE might have been for that op.
I think we read last month that the Ukrainians were stripping heavy weapons from the armour they could not repair, with small factories mass-producing new mounts to use them as personal weapons.
On which note there was an interesting comment during the Parliamentary select committee discussion with General Sir Richard Barron posted here a few days ago on whether posting a battalion or two of NATO troops into Kyiv would have deterred Putin, knowing what we know now about Russia's military (in)capabilities.
Syria & Iran for starters, a bunch on tinpot African “countries” that Trump had a far more appropriate name for, India maybe, North Korea if they could afford it, and of course China. Even just funnelling it through another country seems to get around embargoes. No country is going to sit with that off their coast while their people begin go starve if this gets really bad in the next year or so.
Last edited by Una Due Tfc; 25th May 2022 at 20:52.
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There is a report in the DT that the RN will not be taking part in a plan to escort Ukrainian grain ships out of Odessa and through the Black Sea. The Times says, essentially, that the RN is working on plans for such an operation. Not, of course, conflicting reports as I am sure the planners are looking at it. The Montreax agreement would seem almost insuperable.
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https://news.yahoo.com/cnn-publishes...k=tw&tsrc=twtr
It shows the stolen grain being loaded onto bulk carriers, surely the simple way around it is to prevent it leaving the black sea by means of a blockade where the ships could be seized and the grain removed before the ships are released, it could then be sold and the proceeds returned to Ukraine for them to recompense the farmers.
"Mildly" Eccentric Stardriver
Nice idea, Nutty, but as I understand it, the Bosphorus is closed to military vessels. So, although the RN, and probably others, are looking at the idea, is seems to be a non-starter. The alternative would be to intercept them after they leave the Bosphorus, but that is Turkish territorial waters I think.
https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/...42499264729088
https://news.yahoo.com/cnn-publishes...k=tw&tsrc=twtr
It shows the stolen grain being loaded onto bulk carriers, surely the simple way around it is to prevent it leaving the black sea by means of a blockade where the ships could be seized and the grain removed before the ships are released, it could then be sold and the proceeds returned to Ukraine for them to recompense the farmers.
https://news.yahoo.com/cnn-publishes...k=tw&tsrc=twtr
It shows the stolen grain being loaded onto bulk carriers, surely the simple way around it is to prevent it leaving the black sea by means of a blockade where the ships could be seized and the grain removed before the ships are released, it could then be sold and the proceeds returned to Ukraine for them to recompense the farmers.
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I am not suggesting taking it in territorial water, I would take it to Egypt where the last lot went but was turned away at Ukraines request, offload it there and sell it, monies going to Ukraine.
Twas just an idea…
Twas just an idea…
"Mildly" Eccentric Stardriver
That makes sense, if they can make sure the ship goes there. As an aside, wasn't it Kennedy that used the word "quarantine" about the Soviet ships heading to Cuba? He felt the word "blockade" amounted to an act of war.
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As much as I wish the Kyiv Independent numbers are accurate, I am afraid they are inflated. 205 planes? 170 helicopters? I´d rather stick to Orxy for a conservative assessment. Same for the UK daily intel update. Imho, way too optimistic. This will be a long bloody slog. Too early to tell who will wear down first. I am sure the Russians can still draw on some serious reserves. They could dig in, hold what they have and keep harassing the rest of Ukraine for years until the West gets tired. Just like in 2014.
At the moment the Donbas is a meat grinder. Ukrainians loosing lots of service members since Russians are outgunning them by a huge margin. Ukrainians need a lot more firepower to hold the Orcs back.
For the sake of Ukraine I hope I am too pessimistic.
At the moment the Donbas is a meat grinder. Ukrainians loosing lots of service members since Russians are outgunning them by a huge margin. Ukrainians need a lot more firepower to hold the Orcs back.
For the sake of Ukraine I hope I am too pessimistic.
I see this war developing into a modern WW1. Trench warfare with the addition of drones etc.
Neither side has superiority in anything. This benefits the Ukrainians who can just slowly bleed Russia.
The West getting bored may also be a factor.
Yep, in for the long slog I think.
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https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/...42499264729088
https://news.yahoo.com/cnn-publishes...k=tw&tsrc=twtr
It shows the stolen grain being loaded onto bulk carriers, surely the simple way around it is to prevent it leaving the black sea by means of a blockade where the ships could be seized and the grain removed before the ships are released, it could then be sold and the proceeds returned to Ukraine for them to recompense the farmers.
https://news.yahoo.com/cnn-publishes...k=tw&tsrc=twtr
It shows the stolen grain being loaded onto bulk carriers, surely the simple way around it is to prevent it leaving the black sea by means of a blockade where the ships could be seized and the grain removed before the ships are released, it could then be sold and the proceeds returned to Ukraine for them to recompense the farmers.
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Could you not detain them under piracy laws as used off Somalia?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
US Defence Intelligence agency assess that less than 40% of Russian missiles fired during the war in Ukraine have hit their intended targets. 20-30% fail to launch or crash in flight and many miss aiming points.
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-r...a-show-1709388
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-r...a-show-1709388
US Defence Intelligence agency assess that less than 40% of Russian missiles fired during the war in Ukraine have hit their intended targets. 20-30% fail to launch or crash in flight and many miss aiming points.
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-r...a-show-1709388
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-r...a-show-1709388
On the theft of grain etc, oh for the days of putting up a jolly roger on a masthead and plinking some RPGs and ATKs at the bridge to stop the complicit parties in the theft of commodities by the Krimmins. Whatever the flag is of the ship, if they are actively engaged in theft, then a rude wake-up is not going to end up with hand wringing, wailing and renting of cloth. Any shipper dealing with a Russian moving cargo that may have come from the Russian theft from Ukraine has no morla and probably no legal top cover on their complicity in a genocide of Ukraine. Should be able to get a lot of Somali fishermen with recent experience in the tactical art of pi$$ing off shipping.
The UN continues to do.... not a damn thing. The inclusion of an aggressor nation in the UN Charter in 1944 led to the workaround of that with NATO, in 1949. What is the next workaround of a world that post cold war is back to being polarised by authoritarianist aggressor regimes, and the rest of the world that is interested in doing business. Removing aggressor parties from the team is a necessity yet is where self interest continues to be an issue. When others cross borders in force it is aggression, when the rest do the same it is often considered as something else.
How does US Intelligence "know" what the aiming points were?
Are these the same Intelligence Analysts that did not see this War coming and said it would only last three days...that did not see the Taliban taking over Afghanistan...that "knew" there were WMD's in Iraq?
That the Russians are mucking it up big time is easy to see.....but to know with certainty requires a lot of confirmed inside information....which I do not believe for a second that we have.
Are these the same Intelligence Analysts that did not see this War coming and said it would only last three days...that did not see the Taliban taking over Afghanistan...that "knew" there were WMD's in Iraq?
That the Russians are mucking it up big time is easy to see.....but to know with certainty requires a lot of confirmed inside information....which I do not believe for a second that we have.
