Is Ukraine about to have a war?
It may be that Putin is not the only one with misapprehensions regarding the Ukraine situation.
A rather different perspective is in some of the financial websites, such as this one here: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022...ng-russia.html
The short form here is that the West has shot itself in the foot with the various embargoes. These have had very limited near term effect on Russia, which received all time record energy export revenues in April ,but are hugely damaging to the global.economy. The victims will blame the West for imposing these sanctions.
The other element is that warts and all, Russia is gradually absorbing eastern Ukraine, the source of the conflict, installing civil administrations and offering expedited Russian citizenship.
Changing those facts on the ground will be problematical for the Ukraine, even with an influx of NATO gear.
Kissinger at Davos stated his view that the Ukraine will not be able to emerge unscathed from this war. He is admittedly old, but his judgement still seems sound.
A rather different perspective is in some of the financial websites, such as this one here: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022...ng-russia.html
The short form here is that the West has shot itself in the foot with the various embargoes. These have had very limited near term effect on Russia, which received all time record energy export revenues in April ,but are hugely damaging to the global.economy. The victims will blame the West for imposing these sanctions.
The other element is that warts and all, Russia is gradually absorbing eastern Ukraine, the source of the conflict, installing civil administrations and offering expedited Russian citizenship.
Changing those facts on the ground will be problematical for the Ukraine, even with an influx of NATO gear.
Kissinger at Davos stated his view that the Ukraine will not be able to emerge unscathed from this war. He is admittedly old, but his judgement still seems sound.
Will we see Kissinger holding a piece of paper with Putin's signature, saying "Peace in our time"?
His point is that the whole world, including Ukraine, will be better off if the killing in Ukraine finally stops.
Given the price Russia has paid for the slice of Ukraine it is now occupying, it will be a good while before Putin or his successor try to take another bite.
By offering to open the shipping lanes, that looks like Russia’s thinking too.
Take a break, solidify your hold and wait (Crimea 2014-2022, = 8 years) before moving forwards once more.
Take a break, solidify your hold and wait (Crimea 2014-2022, = 8 years) before moving forwards once more.
Any deal with Putin is not worth the paper it's printed on. It just gives him an interval to regroup, resupply and train up cannon fodder. What we don't know is when he will run out of ordnance, provided of course that our side keeps the Ukrainians well supplied. Unfortunately it seems that rasputitsa is over.
It seems that human wave attacks are the current RF tactic. The Ukrainians need to preserve personnel while exacting a high price.
It seems that human wave attacks are the current RF tactic. The Ukrainians need to preserve personnel while exacting a high price.
If I were Ukraine, the only way I'd accept a treaty with Russia - allowing them to continue to occupy their current gains - would be if it also allowed Ukraine to join NATO.
Otherwise, as jolihokistix notes, they'll be in the same situation within a decade when Russia is ready to take another bite. Making peace with the Russia is akin to making peace with Hitler - it's only valid until Russia decides otherwise.
Otherwise, as jolihokistix notes, they'll be in the same situation within a decade when Russia is ready to take another bite. Making peace with the Russia is akin to making peace with Hitler - it's only valid until Russia decides otherwise.
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https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-r...a-show-1709388
Exclusive: Russia's Air War in Ukraine is a Total Failure, New Data Show
Exclusive: Russia's Air War in Ukraine is a Total Failure, New Data Show
What Newsweek doesn't consider, is the slowly, but steady encroach of the whole southern part of Ukraine. In the end, THAT is the target. The Newsweek items are just "means" to get to that target. Despite the encroachment costing Russia a huge amount of destroyed armament and cannon-fodder, history and reality shows, Russia doesn't care about these items as long as the territory is gained. And the collateral damage they cause to the civilians and infrastructure in/of the gained territory are completely out of consideration. Somewhat of an extreme long term thinking.
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If I were Ukraine, the only way I'd accept a treaty with Russia - allowing them to continue to occupy their current gains - would be if it also allowed Ukraine to join NATO.
Otherwise, as jolihokistix notes, they'll be in the same situation within a decade when Russia is ready to take another bite. Making peace with the Russia is akin to making peace with Hitler - it's only valid until Russia decides otherwise.
Otherwise, as jolihokistix notes, they'll be in the same situation within a decade when Russia is ready to take another bite. Making peace with the Russia is akin to making peace with Hitler - it's only valid until Russia decides otherwise.
Kissinger is no patsy. He knows full well that treaties are always subject to 'reinterpretation', they stay relevant as long as the parties involved defend them.
His point is that the whole world, including Ukraine, will be better off if the killing in Ukraine finally stops.
Given the price Russia has paid for the slice of Ukraine it is now occupying, it will be a good while before Putin or his successor try to take another bite.
His point is that the whole world, including Ukraine, will be better off if the killing in Ukraine finally stops.
Given the price Russia has paid for the slice of Ukraine it is now occupying, it will be a good while before Putin or his successor try to take another bite.
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Agreed, and not only that you would be cutting off the countries economic areas, gas, oil, coal, wheat and steel. Without those it would be a slow death for the Country.
Treaty etc
As others have said above, if Russia is allowed any gain from this, any cessation of hostilities will be worthless and last until Putin et al decide oterwise. What concerns me is the resolve of western governments to get stuck in and throw everything necessary at this to stop it in Ukraine's favour. As we have seen recently in the UK and elsewhere, domestic considerations incentivise politicians to take the easy line. I have yet to hear one make a convincing case for us all enduring hardhsip in order to fix this problem once & for all.
Without that resolve I can see stalemate, a fudged treaty and here we go again in 5 years time
Without that resolve I can see stalemate, a fudged treaty and here we go again in 5 years time
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
His point is that the whole world, including Ukraine, will be better off if the killing in Ukraine finally stops.
Last edited by ORAC; 27th May 2022 at 11:37.
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This might be a game changer if they are supplied, they would be able to take out the Crimea bridge, artillery and rail / road bridges supplying the front all from further back in Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...2022-05-26/U.S.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...2022-05-26/U.S.
officials say the Biden administration is even considering supplying Kyiv with the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which depending on the munitions can have a range of hundreds of kilometers.
But U.S. intelligence has also warned about growing risks, particularly given a mismatch between Russian President Vladimir Putin's apparent ambitions and the performance of his military. The coming months could put the war on a "more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory," Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told a Senate hearing this month.
The United States, by design, is not directly combating Russian forces but Pentagon commanders are in constant contact with Ukrainian leaders and have provided critical intelligence that has allowed Ukraine to target Russian troops, on land and at sea, U.S. officials have said.
A second U.S. official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said Washington and Kyiv had a shared "understanding" about the use of certain Western-provided weapon systems.
"So far, we've been on the same page about the thresholds," the official said.
Ukraine's defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the West that supplying weapons to Ukraine capable of hitting Russian territory would be "a serious step towards unacceptable escalation," according to remarks published on the Russian foreign ministry website on Thursday.
But U.S. intelligence has also warned about growing risks, particularly given a mismatch between Russian President Vladimir Putin's apparent ambitions and the performance of his military. The coming months could put the war on a "more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory," Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told a Senate hearing this month.
The United States, by design, is not directly combating Russian forces but Pentagon commanders are in constant contact with Ukrainian leaders and have provided critical intelligence that has allowed Ukraine to target Russian troops, on land and at sea, U.S. officials have said.
A second U.S. official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said Washington and Kyiv had a shared "understanding" about the use of certain Western-provided weapon systems.
"So far, we've been on the same page about the thresholds," the official said.
Ukraine's defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the West that supplying weapons to Ukraine capable of hitting Russian territory would be "a serious step towards unacceptable escalation," according to remarks published on the Russian foreign ministry website on Thursday.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...670407682.html
There seem to be two completely different narratives emerging about the Battle of the Donbas, one on the micro level and one from the larger perspective, and its fascinating to see the differences. Thought I would try and summarize.….
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First? Video of the use of a Switchblade 300
Meanwhile Colonel No 46 departs this mortal life..
More losses for Vladimir Putin’s forces in Ukraine as 46th colonel is killed (msn.com)
..
Meanwhile Colonel No 46 departs this mortal life..
More losses for Vladimir Putin’s forces in Ukraine as 46th colonel is killed (msn.com)
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 27th May 2022 at 12:57.
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1933-46 = 2014-20??The rest of the worlds players not yet fully engaged
"...The just punishment for this part of the population is possible only as the bearing of the inevitable hardships of a just war against the Nazi system"
"The name Ukraine can seemingly not be retained as the title of any fully denazified state formation on the territory liberated from the Nazi regime"
"Denazification is inevitably also deukrainisation – a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic element of self-identification of the population of the territories of the historical Malorossiya and Novorossiya begun by the Soviet authorities"
"Unlike, let’s say, Georgia or the Baltics, Ukraine, as history has shown, is unviable as a national state, and attempts to 'build' one logically lead to Nazism"
"The Banderite elite must be liquidated, its reeducation is impossible. The social 'swamp' which actively and passively supports it must undergo the hardships of war and digest the experience as a historical lesson and atonement" END
This, to me, is obviously a direct argument for the total eradication of Ukraine and all of its peoples. In other words Genocide. Hopefully the world in general and the UK, US and Poland remember what happened in the Katyn Forest, and the concentration camps of Germany and Poland, which some seem to insist never happened Germany, Italy and France especially should remember the above and get off the fence. Hungary should remember what the then German population went through in and after WW2, thanks to the Liebensraun and Genocide policies of the then Chancellor, his government and his toadying judiciary. I think Comrade Putin is of a similar make, seeking the restoration of the USSR or even earlier to the times of the Czars. A personal reading of what is, and again, to me, a land grab complete with ethnic cleansing, seen many times since 1945.
I think Hungarians have a pretty good idea about the privations & horrors of war.
With the current bloodshed, reconciliation between Kiev and the eastern parts of the country is pretty much off the table. Separation seems the least destructive outcome.
That is simply ahistorical. The Russian state was present in Eastern Ukraine from the start. Initially they tried to raise an effective proxy army from the local inhabitants, and when that failed, they sent in Russian troops. There has never been a civil war in Ukraine.