Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 27th May 2022, 00:39
  #5901 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Everett, WA
Age: 68
Posts: 4,084
Received 68 Likes on 34 Posts
Originally Posted by etudiant
It may be that Putin is not the only one with misapprehensions regarding the Ukraine situation.
A rather different perspective is in some of the financial websites, such as this one here: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022...ng-russia.html
The short form here is that the West has shot itself in the foot with the various embargoes. These have had very limited near term effect on Russia, which received all time record energy export revenues in April ,but are hugely damaging to the global.economy. The victims will blame the West for imposing these sanctions.
The other element is that warts and all, Russia is gradually absorbing eastern Ukraine, the source of the conflict, installing civil administrations and offering expedited Russian citizenship.
Changing those facts on the ground will be problematical for the Ukraine, even with an influx of NATO gear.
Kissinger at Davos stated his view that the Ukraine will not be able to emerge unscathed from this war. He is admittedly old, but his judgement still seems sound.
Any treaty that leaves Russia in part of Ukraine means trusting Putin to keep his word, something that he's notably failed to do so far.
Will we see Kissinger holding a piece of paper with Putin's signature, saying "Peace in our time"?
tdracer is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 01:31
  #5902 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 1,351
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Originally Posted by tdracer
Any treaty that leaves Russia in part of Ukraine means trusting Putin to keep his word, something that he's notably failed to do so far.
Will we see Kissinger holding a piece of paper with Putin's signature, saying "Peace in our time"?
Kissinger is no patsy. He knows full well that treaties are always subject to 'reinterpretation', they stay relevant as long as the parties involved defend them.
His point is that the whole world, including Ukraine, will be better off if the killing in Ukraine finally stops.
Given the price Russia has paid for the slice of Ukraine it is now occupying, it will be a good while before Putin or his successor try to take another bite.
etudiant is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 01:48
  #5903 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 1,635
Received 55 Likes on 32 Posts
By offering to open the shipping lanes, that looks like Russiaís thinking too.
Take a break, solidify your hold and wait (Crimea 2014-2022, = 8 years) before moving forwards once more.
jolihokistix is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 02:22
  #5904 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Toronto
Posts: 2,499
Received 12 Likes on 6 Posts
Any deal with Putin is not worth the paper it's printed on. It just gives him an interval to regroup, resupply and train up cannon fodder. What we don't know is when he will run out of ordnance, provided of course that our side keeps the Ukrainians well supplied. Unfortunately it seems that rasputitsa is over.

It seems that human wave attacks are the current RF tactic. The Ukrainians need to preserve personnel while exacting a high price.
RatherBeFlying is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 06:09
  #5905 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Everett, WA
Age: 68
Posts: 4,084
Received 68 Likes on 34 Posts
If I were Ukraine, the only way I'd accept a treaty with Russia - allowing them to continue to occupy their current gains - would be if it also allowed Ukraine to join NATO.

Otherwise, as jolihokistix notes, they'll be in the same situation within a decade when Russia is ready to take another bite. Making peace with the Russia is akin to making peace with Hitler - it's only valid until Russia decides otherwise.
tdracer is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 06:58
  #5906 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: OnScreen
Posts: 410
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by ORAC
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-r...a-show-1709388

Exclusive: Russia's Air War in Ukraine is a Total Failure, New Data Show
Their focus is primarily on the high-tech impact.

What Newsweek doesn't consider, is the slowly, but steady encroach of the whole southern part of Ukraine. In the end, THAT is the target. The Newsweek items are just "means" to get to that target. Despite the encroachment costing Russia a huge amount of destroyed armament and cannon-fodder, history and reality shows, Russia doesn't care about these items as long as the territory is gained. And the collateral damage they cause to the civilians and infrastructure in/of the gained territory are completely out of consideration. Somewhat of an extreme long term thinking.
WideScreen is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 07:01
  #5907 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: OnScreen
Posts: 410
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by tdracer
If I were Ukraine, the only way I'd accept a treaty with Russia - allowing them to continue to occupy their current gains - would be if it also allowed Ukraine to join NATO.

Otherwise, as jolihokistix notes, they'll be in the same situation within a decade when Russia is ready to take another bite. Making peace with the Russia is akin to making peace with Hitler - it's only valid until Russia decides otherwise.
Yep, that would be a better security guarantee towards Ukraine, than the original treaties, which get waved aside by Russia, whenever it is suitable to them (just as with every other "agreement", though the USA is not much better in that regard).
WideScreen is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 08:42
  #5908 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Scotland
Age: 43
Posts: 113
Received 5 Likes on 4 Posts
Originally Posted by etudiant
Kissinger is no patsy. He knows full well that treaties are always subject to 'reinterpretation', they stay relevant as long as the parties involved defend them.
His point is that the whole world, including Ukraine, will be better off if the killing in Ukraine finally stops.
Given the price Russia has paid for the slice of Ukraine it is now occupying, it will be a good while before Putin or his successor try to take another bite.
There are numerous credible accounts of what happens to the civilian population in Ukrainian territory that is occupied by Russian forces. Territorial concessions will NOT stop the killing. The government and armed forces of Ukraine have a duty to defend all of their citizens from foreign aggression (you would expect the same of your military), and they have shown themselves to be a motivated and capable force. The decision on when to stop fighting is Ukraine's and Ukraine's alone. The wider civilised world has a moral obligation (and the means) to supply weapons that will allow Ukraine to restore it's territorial integrity. I would hope that any government that fails to do so will pay a heavy price.
Recc is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 09:05
  #5909 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,882
Received 1,324 Likes on 599 Posts
Agreed, and not only that you would be cutting off the countries economic areas, gas, oil, coal, wheat and steel. Without those it would be a slow death for the Country.
NutLoose is online now  
Old 27th May 2022, 09:42
  #5910 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: The South
Posts: 282
Received 30 Likes on 15 Posts
Treaty etc

As others have said above, if Russia is allowed any gain from this, any cessation of hostilities will be worthless and last until Putin et al decide oterwise. What concerns me is the resolve of western governments to get stuck in and throw everything necessary at this to stop it in Ukraine's favour. As we have seen recently in the UK and elsewhere, domestic considerations incentivise politicians to take the easy line. I have yet to hear one make a convincing case for us all enduring hardhsip in order to fix this problem once & for all.

Without that resolve I can see stalemate, a fudged treaty and here we go again in 5 years time
Timmy Tomkins is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 11:24
  #5911 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 15,638
Received 747 Likes on 369 Posts
His point is that the whole world, including Ukraine, will be better off if the killing in Ukraine finally stops.
That’s up to the Ukrainians to decide - and if they decide, as they have, to fight on, we should back them to the hilt including HIMARS, MLRS, aircraft and heavy armour if they ask for it.

Last edited by ORAC; 27th May 2022 at 11:37.
ORAC is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 11:33
  #5912 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,882
Received 1,324 Likes on 599 Posts
Agreed

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTwEwTkX...png&name=small
NutLoose is online now  
Old 27th May 2022, 11:42
  #5913 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,882
Received 1,324 Likes on 599 Posts
This might be a game changer if they are supplied, they would be able to take out the Crimea bridge, artillery and rail / road bridges supplying the front all from further back in Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...2022-05-26/U.S.
officials say the Biden administration is even considering supplying Kyiv with the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which depending on the munitions can have a range of hundreds of kilometers.

But U.S. intelligence has also warned about growing risks, particularly given a mismatch between Russian President Vladimir Putin's apparent ambitions and the performance of his military. The coming months could put the war on a "more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory," Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told a Senate hearing this month.

The United States, by design, is not directly combating Russian forces but Pentagon commanders are in constant contact with Ukrainian leaders and have provided critical intelligence that has allowed Ukraine to target Russian troops, on land and at sea, U.S. officials have said.

A second U.S. official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said Washington and Kyiv had a shared "understanding" about the use of certain Western-provided weapon systems.

"So far, we've been on the same page about the thresholds," the official said.

Ukraine's defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the West that supplying weapons to Ukraine capable of hitting Russian territory would be "a serious step towards unacceptable escalation," according to remarks published on the Russian foreign ministry website on Thursday.
NutLoose is online now  
Old 27th May 2022, 11:43
  #5914 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 15,638
Received 747 Likes on 369 Posts
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...670407682.html

There seem to be two completely different narratives emerging about the Battle of the Donbas, one on the micro level and one from the larger perspective, and its fascinating to see the differences. Thought I would try and summarize.….
ORAC is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 12:10
  #5915 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 29,882
Received 1,324 Likes on 599 Posts
First? Video of the use of a Switchblade 300


Meanwhile Colonel No 46 departs this mortal life..

More losses for Vladimir Putin’s forces in Ukraine as 46th colonel is killed (msn.com)


..

Last edited by NutLoose; 27th May 2022 at 12:57.
NutLoose is online now  
Old 27th May 2022, 14:18
  #5916 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: 75' from the runway edge and 150' from the threshold
Age: 74
Posts: 238
Received 10 Likes on 6 Posts
1933-46 = 2014-20??The rest of the worlds players not yet fully engaged

From the above, A report from RIA Novosit. Denazification is a set of measures aimed at the nazified mass of the population, which technically cannot be subjected to direct punishment as war criminals" "However, besides the elite, a significant part of the masses of the people, who are passive nazis, are accomplices to Nazism. They have supported the Nazi authorities and indulged them..."

"...The just punishment for this part of the population is possible only as the bearing of the inevitable hardships of a just war against the Nazi system"

"The name Ukraine can seemingly not be retained as the title of any fully denazified state formation on the territory liberated from the Nazi regime"

"Denazification is inevitably also deukrainisation Ė a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic element of self-identification of the population of the territories of the historical Malorossiya and Novorossiya begun by the Soviet authorities"

"Unlike, letís say, Georgia or the Baltics, Ukraine, as history has shown, is unviable as a national state, and attempts to 'build' one logically lead to Nazism"

"The Banderite elite must be liquidated, its reeducation is impossible. The social 'swamp' which actively and passively supports it must undergo the hardships of war and digest the experience as a historical lesson and atonement
" END

This, to me, is obviously a direct argument for the total eradication of Ukraine and all of its peoples. In other words Genocide. Hopefully the world in general and the UK, US and Poland remember what happened in the Katyn Forest, and the concentration camps of Germany and Poland, which some seem to insist never happened Germany, Italy and France especially should remember the above and get off the fence. Hungary should remember what the then German population went through in and after WW2, thanks to the Liebensraun and Genocide policies of the then Chancellor, his government and his toadying judiciary. I think Comrade Putin is of a similar make, seeking the restoration of the USSR or even earlier to the times of the Czars. A personal reading of what is, and again, to me, a land grab complete with ethnic cleansing, seen many times since 1945.
ACW342 is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 14:50
  #5917 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,526
Received 3 Likes on 2 Posts
More combat footage, this time with some familiar accents + language. Sounds like something big ricocheting at c.20 seconds - RPG maybe?
​​​​
dead_pan is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 15:22
  #5918 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Budapest
Posts: 214
Received 21 Likes on 10 Posts
Originally Posted by ACW342

Hungary should remember what the then German population went through in and after WW2, thanks to the Liebensraun and Genocide policies of the then Chancellor, his government and his toadying judiciary.


I think Hungarians have a pretty good idea about the privations & horrors of war.
Expatrick is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 16:34
  #5919 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 1,351
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Originally Posted by ORAC
Thatís up to the Ukrainians to decide - and if they decide, as they have, to fight on, we should back them to the hilt including HIMARS, MLRS, aircraft and heavy armour if they ask for it.
I disagree strongly with giving the Kiev leadership a blank check. The Ukraine civil war started with the revolt of the Russian speaking eastern segment of the country against the new post Maidan Kiev government's laws, which were perceived as damaging them. The Kiev government chose to send in the army rather than to address the grievances. The Russian intervention has just exacerbated that conflict.
With the current bloodshed, reconciliation between Kiev and the eastern parts of the country is pretty much off the table. Separation seems the least destructive outcome.
etudiant is offline  
Old 27th May 2022, 17:46
  #5920 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Scotland
Age: 43
Posts: 113
Received 5 Likes on 4 Posts
Originally Posted by etudiant
The Ukraine civil war started with the revolt of the Russian speaking eastern segment of the country against the new post Maidan Kiev government's laws, which were perceived as damaging them.
That is simply ahistorical. The Russian state was present in Eastern Ukraine from the start. Initially they tried to raise an effective proxy army from the local inhabitants, and when that failed, they sent in Russian troops. There has never been a civil war in Ukraine.
Recc is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information

Copyright © 2023 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.