Is Ukraine about to have a war?
I disagree strongly with giving the Kiev leadership a blank check. The Ukraine civil war started with the revolt of the Russian speaking eastern segment of the country against the new post Maidan Kiev government's laws, which were perceived as damaging them. The Kiev government chose to send in the army rather than to address the grievances. The Russian intervention has just exacerbated that conflict.
With the current bloodshed, reconciliation between Kiev and the eastern parts of the country is pretty much off the table. Separation seems the least destructive outcome.
With the current bloodshed, reconciliation between Kiev and the eastern parts of the country is pretty much off the table. Separation seems the least destructive outcome.
Kyiv should absolutely not capitulate, and the international community now needs to test the red line set out earlier by Lavrov regarding the supply of MLRS etc. This seems more imperative against the rumours that the Kremlin now believes it can take Kyiv by the end of the year (with what though??). The RF has been meddling and stirring it up in the east of Ukraine for years, something has to change and that means a Ukraine with pre 2014 borders.
That differs from my understanding. Afaik, the international observers showed no Russian troops in the eastern Ukraine. It was a local uprising. Obviously given that there had not been a rigorous border during Soviet days, there surely was lots of cross border traffic, which probably continued once the shooting started, but regular troop formations were not noted.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Meduza: Kremlin still discussing attacking Kyiv.
Independent Russian media outlet Meduza quoted undisclosed sources saying the Kremlin is discussing a possible assault on Kyiv and even hopes for a full-scale victory by fall.
According to Meduza’s sources, Russian leadership is hoping Europe will get tired of helping Ukraine and that bloc members will have to agree with Russia on gas and oil before the heating season.
Independent Russian media outlet Meduza quoted undisclosed sources saying the Kremlin is discussing a possible assault on Kyiv and even hopes for a full-scale victory by fall.
According to Meduza’s sources, Russian leadership is hoping Europe will get tired of helping Ukraine and that bloc members will have to agree with Russia on gas and oil before the heating season.
That differs from my understanding. Afaik, the international observers showed no Russian troops in the eastern Ukraine. It was a local uprising. Obviously given that there had not been a rigorous border during Soviet days, there surely was lots of cross border traffic, which probably continued once the shooting started, but regular troop formations were not noted.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,021
Received 2,902 Likes
on
1,243 Posts
I do wonder if all the latest rhetoric from Russia threatening WW3 and attacking supplies in Western countries is to do with the fact they have thrown everything but the kitchen sink into their latest assaults and the Ukrainians are holding though it is costing them.
Russia is throwing all their best toys into the mix, but are blissfully aware that they are both outclassed and inferior to the Western weapon’s already deployed and realise that if the West do start to deploy the long range rocket systems and more lethal aid to Ukraine that the advantage they have at the moment in terms of quantity will rapidly evaporate as bridges, supply routes and artillery are picked off leading to massive unsustainable losses and defeat, thus the threats of WW3 and attacks on Western countries has raised its heads again.
The Crimea bridge would thus become a major target cutting of a principle supply route as would the ports such as Sevastopol.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/26/p...lrs/index.html
Russia is throwing all their best toys into the mix, but are blissfully aware that they are both outclassed and inferior to the Western weapon’s already deployed and realise that if the West do start to deploy the long range rocket systems and more lethal aid to Ukraine that the advantage they have at the moment in terms of quantity will rapidly evaporate as bridges, supply routes and artillery are picked off leading to massive unsustainable losses and defeat, thus the threats of WW3 and attacks on Western countries has raised its heads again.
The Crimea bridge would thus become a major target cutting of a principle supply route as would the ports such as Sevastopol.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/26/p...lrs/index.html
Last edited by NutLoose; 27th May 2022 at 23:21.
I disagree strongly with giving the Kiev leadership a blank check. The Ukraine civil war started with the revolt of the Russian speaking eastern segment of the country against the new post Maidan Kiev government's laws, which were perceived as damaging them. The Kiev government chose to send in the army rather than to address the grievances. The Russian intervention has just exacerbated that conflict.
With the current bloodshed, reconciliation between Kiev and the eastern parts of the country is pretty much off the table. Separation seems the least destructive outcome.
With the current bloodshed, reconciliation between Kiev and the eastern parts of the country is pretty much off the table. Separation seems the least destructive outcome.
I know you want to refute 'etudiant' - but quoting it makes us who have put it on ignore have to read it's cr*p...
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Bucharest
Posts: 93
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Afaik, the international observers showed no Russian troops in the eastern Ukraine. It was a local uprising. Obviously given that there had not been a rigorous border during Soviet days, there surely was lots of cross border traffic, which probably continued once the shooting started, but regular troop formations were not noted.
However, Russia's "little green man" were reported in Ukraine in 2014 within a week after the Maidan Revolution. And Russia doesn't even deny anymore that Putin decided to send troops into Ukraine the night after Yanukovych was deposed. Yanukovych was deposed on February 22nd 2014. That night, by the morning of 23rd, Putin had already decided to invade Ukraine and annex Crimea. That's before any attempted changes of legislation:
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-describ...212858356.html
The military operation was initially kept secret and despite the increasingly obvious actions of unmarked Russian forces on the ground, Moscow insisted that only locals were involved in the upheaval. Later, the Kremlin conceded that it had been behind the power grab.
In the trailer for the documentary, Putin also claims that Russia's military was ready to fight its way into the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk to get Yanukovych, a heavily corrupted but loyal figure who favoured keeping Ukraine in Russia's sphere of influence.
"He would have been killed," Putin said. "We got ready to get him right out of Donetsk by land, by sea or by air," he said. "Heavy machineguns were mounted there to avoid talking too much."
In the trailer for the documentary, Putin also claims that Russia's military was ready to fight its way into the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk to get Yanukovych, a heavily corrupted but loyal figure who favoured keeping Ukraine in Russia's sphere of influence.
"He would have been killed," Putin said. "We got ready to get him right out of Donetsk by land, by sea or by air," he said. "Heavy machineguns were mounted there to avoid talking too much."
So, it's clear Putin's main motivation was to keep Ukraine in Russia's sphere of influence, as a puppet state, and prevent it from getting closer to the EU, not to "protect Russian speakers".
As to the eastern Ukraine, while indeed initially there were no reports of "little green man", the separatist insurrection from April 2014 was led by the same Russian GRU operatives which worked a bit earlier on annexing Crimea. And, a few months later, Russian heavy equipment, like the Buk SAM that brought down MH17, was also present. Then Russian troops started to "accidentally" cross into Ukraine during "exercises":
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...0GQ1X520140826
Kolosky is about 7 km (4 miles) from Dzerkalniy, a settlement where Ukrainian officials said they had detained the 10 Russian troops featured in the video footage.
Russian news agencies cited a source in the Russian defense ministry as saying the paratroopers had strayed into Ukraine by mistake during an exercise. One of the men said in video footage released by Ukraine’s security services that they had been instructed to put on white arm-bands.
Russian news agencies cited a source in the Russian defense ministry as saying the paratroopers had strayed into Ukraine by mistake during an exercise. One of the men said in video footage released by Ukraine’s security services that they had been instructed to put on white arm-bands.
Last edited by MikeSnow; 27th May 2022 at 21:37.
etudiant, I have mentioned before my concerns with some of your softly presented apologia for the Russian position. I ask you to take a good hard look at your assumptions, and particularly consider Mike Snow's post in good faith.
It isn't just the Russians who do stuff like this.
As just one example: back in the mid 1990's, there were over 200 Iranian operatives in Bosnia supporting the Bosniak cause.
Hezbollah was begun as an Iranian supported local Sunni group in Lebanon in the early 80's. Little green men, and in that case, the green is the color of the Islamic revolution.
A variety of places on the globe have had over the years American, or French, or UK, or {pick a nation} enablers and assisters backing local resistance groups.
Why is it so hard for you to believe that the Russians would do a similar thing in a nation right next door upon whom they had designs and possibly nefarious intentions?
This is not rocket science. It's political science, 101.
Have you bought the Moscow line? If so, why?
I get Putin's (and Orban's) distaste for the EU. Hell, Brexit was a case of distaste for the EU. That concern, that aversion to Eurocrats, is hardly an excuse for an invasion of a neighbor.
Fair point. (And I chuckled)
It isn't just the Russians who do stuff like this.
As just one example: back in the mid 1990's, there were over 200 Iranian operatives in Bosnia supporting the Bosniak cause.
Hezbollah was begun as an Iranian supported local Sunni group in Lebanon in the early 80's. Little green men, and in that case, the green is the color of the Islamic revolution.
A variety of places on the globe have had over the years American, or French, or UK, or {pick a nation} enablers and assisters backing local resistance groups.
Why is it so hard for you to believe that the Russians would do a similar thing in a nation right next door upon whom they had designs and possibly nefarious intentions?
This is not rocket science. It's political science, 101.
Have you bought the Moscow line? If so, why?
I get Putin's (and Orban's) distaste for the EU. Hell, Brexit was a case of distaste for the EU. That concern, that aversion to Eurocrats, is hardly an excuse for an invasion of a neighbor.
Fair point. (And I chuckled)
I disagree strongly with giving the Kiev leadership a blank check. The Ukraine civil war started with the revolt of the Russian speaking eastern segment of the country against the new post Maidan Kiev government's laws, which were perceived as damaging them. The Kiev government chose to send in the army rather than to address the grievances. The Russian intervention has just exacerbated that conflict.
With the current bloodshed, reconciliation between Kiev and the eastern parts of the country is pretty much off the table. Separation seems the least destructive outcome.
With the current bloodshed, reconciliation between Kiev and the eastern parts of the country is pretty much off the table. Separation seems the least destructive outcome.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,021
Received 2,902 Likes
on
1,243 Posts
Russian speaking eastern segment of the country
So how wide is this undeclared DMZ that Russia is establishing across the south and east of Ukraine? (Turkey wanted one about 30 km deep across the north of Syria, as I recall.)
A little bit of evil done by Hungarians against Hungarians. Some Hungarians have a pretty good idea about privations & horrors of war, others perpetrated that against their own people out of racial intolerance and indifference.
if it will help you sleep at night, some one is reporting that they are loading cruise missiles onto the Kilo class submarines that are based in the Black Sea.
While I hope that those have conventional tips, I think that those missiles are roughly the same class of cruise missile as Tomahawk (USN and RN).
If they have a special tip then you can have more sleepless nights.
I'll see what open sources have on that.
FWIW, the wiki entry indicates that some can have a special warhead
As I don't have a Jane's subscription, I may have to be satisfied with that.
While I hope that those have conventional tips, I think that those missiles are roughly the same class of cruise missile as Tomahawk (USN and RN).
If they have a special tip then you can have more sleepless nights.
I'll see what open sources have on that.
FWIW, the wiki entry indicates that some can have a special warhead
As I don't have a Jane's subscription, I may have to be satisfied with that.
TDRACER's concern about pulling down the tent upon his own head is quite within possible actions by the vampire krimminokratic govt. Putin defines the country by his personality, and so existential threats to him are able to be considered by him as a threat to Russia. At that point, either the world ponies up or we all start to trade our currencies for rubles (can be used still for toilet paper if there is not much to buy). There is an existential threat, it was started by Putin's ego, and he is happy risking the world to satisfy his ego. There was no threat to Russia, certainly not from Ukraine, and none from NATO. Russia invaded a sovereign country as a false flag, as they usually do, to cause Crimea and the Donbas crisis. Now they continue on their path to genocide, there is no action by the Russians to care for the inhabitants in the Donbas, they were some of the first to be murdered and raped by Russians. If not stopped in their aggression, Russia will play the same game again. It is a broken record, it may be scratched a bit, but they have no interest in changing their spots and becoming a friendly nation. Those countries that consider the cost of supporting Ukraine to be high, like safety are going to come to note the cost of what a defeat of Ukraine will mean for all of their submission to aggression.
Hmmm, yet, who was it that lined up the kids and parents along the Danube and shot them in the back of the head? The little thing that gave is the horrific Cipők a Duna-parton.
A little bit of evil done by Hungarians against Hungarians. Some Hungarians have a pretty good idea about privations & horrors of war, others perpetrated that against their own people out of racial intolerance and indifference.
A little bit of evil done by Hungarians against Hungarians. Some Hungarians have a pretty good idea about privations & horrors of war, others perpetrated that against their own people out of racial intolerance and indifference.
With similarities to the present situation
Budapest 1956
Budapest 1956
Guest
No country is entirely blameless when talking about or having experienced atrocities.
The British in India. The French in Indochina. To name just two.
I'm appalled by Russia's invasion but that revulsion is tinged with an element of guilt. Iraq, Afghanistan....
The British in India. The French in Indochina. To name just two.
I'm appalled by Russia's invasion but that revulsion is tinged with an element of guilt. Iraq, Afghanistan....
Well, if "no country is entirely blameless" then you can shut down any and every denunciation of mass-murder by referring to someone's past. This cult of blaming people for things done generations or centuries ago is the curse of our age. What is important is what is being done to Ukraine now, to real living people.
The genocidal goats happen to be Russia today, evidently happy to kill their own younger generation in order to pump up the ego of a sociopathic liar. The question will be how long before the world starts to consider Russia to be a country that should not be shunned and censured. The USA maintained estrangement of Cuba for more than 50 years, that would seem to be a good start for Russia (while disagreeing with the rationale for the example, but it was a national position), Russia is more akin to North Korea as far as I can see, so 70 years + may be a fitting result, might give Russia time to learn some international ettiquette vice brutality. Cancelling Lavrov's visa would be helpful, along with any other Russian diplomat.... particularly those that happen to be at a UN address during the "work week", specifically around vote days.
Whataboutery is moral abdication, pure and simple. You can't excuse one crime with another.