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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 24th May 2022, 19:38
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Today it has been confirmed by the US that Norway is sending (Or has sent) 20+ M109 howitzers from surplus stock. The Norwegian goverment declined comment as they have previously stated that they do not comment on shipments until they are complete.
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Old 24th May 2022, 21:20
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Ominous, what powers does that put in Orban’s hands?

”Hungary declares state of emergency due to war in Ukraine.

Pro-Kremlin Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in a video message that the war posed a threat to Hungary's security, the financial sector and energy supplies.”

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Old 24th May 2022, 23:02
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Ominous, what powers does that put in Orban’s hands?

”Hungary declares state of emergency due to war in Ukraine.

Pro-Kremlin Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in a video message that the war posed a threat to Hungary's security, the financial sector and energy supplies.”
Not the first time that he has done it, probably will not be the last. Previously he has cited migration issues and later the Covid pandemic as reasons for invoking the same. All comes down to him reigning in the power and maintaining control (sound familiar?).

He has been a constant thorn to the EU, and I am surprised that Hungary is still at the table. Probably the lesser of two evils to let him stay there though :-/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...nion_relations

Last edited by macmp419; 24th May 2022 at 23:15.
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Old 25th May 2022, 00:27
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Originally Posted by macmp419
Not the first time that he has done it, probably will not be the last. Previously he has cited migration issues and later the Covid pandemic as reasons for invoking the same. All comes down to him reigning in the power and maintaining control (sound familiar?).

He has been a constant thorn to the EU, and I am surprised that Hungary is still at the table. Probably the lesser of two evils to let him stay there though :-/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...nion_relations
Isn't Hungary in NATO? Why yes, yes they are!

So what are you kvetching about again? There's a war going on in their neighborhood. I am not surprised that the political leadership is getting a bit antsy. How far is your street address from the front lines?
(To be fair, the Romanians have not taken such measures, and it's getting kind of close to them).
the war posed a threat to Hungary's security, the financial sector and energy supplies.”
Their security is the least of their worries, IMO from way across the pond, since they are in NATO, but the financial and energy concerns are valid, don't you think?
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Old 25th May 2022, 01:13
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Isn't Hungary in NATO? Why yes, yes they are!

So what are you kvetching about again? There's a war going on in their neighborhood. I am not surprised that the political leadership is getting a bit antsy. How far is your street address from the front lines?
(To be fair, the Romanians have not taken such measures, and it's getting kind of close to them). Their security is the least of their worries, IMO from way across the pond, since they are in NATO, but the financial and energy concerns are valid, don't you think?
The problem is that Hungary's current political leaders have recently behaved more like allies of Putin, instead of leaders of a country that is a member of EU and NATO. And, for some time, the political leadership in Hungary copied a lot from the textbook of Putin. For example, in Hungary almost all the press is under de facto control of the government politicians. And the government controlled Hungarian press is now not shy of broadcasting a lot of the Russian fake news regarding the war Ukraine. I doubt that's a coincidence.

In general, Hungary's behavior in this conflict has been, if not outright pro-Russian, then at the very least anti-Ukraine. Starting with how they treated Ukrainian refugees, requiring initially that they all have biometric passports to be allowed to go through Hungary. Then by refusing to allow military help to be sent to Ukraine through their territory. And recently by fighting against EU imposing stronger sanctions, like banning oil imports from Russia.

So, if there is any EU country that should fear the least what Putin might or might not do, that would be Hungary, since they helped him so much. As such, I have to agree with macmp419,most likely this state of emergency is just a way to allow Orban more control over the country, and it wasn't actually needed.
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Old 25th May 2022, 01:41
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Originally Posted by MikeSnow
So, if there is any EU country that should fear the least what Putin might or might not do, that would be Hungary, since they helped him so much. As such, I have to agree with macmp419,most likely this state of emergency is just a way to allow Orban more control over the country, and it wasn't actually needed.
OK, I can see that PoV, but don't you think that's a Brit-chauvinist position?

This thing with Orban isn't new. His first run in the premiership was at the turn of the century, and he's been in the driver's seat now for about 10 to 12 years. As I learned the hard way in NATO back in the 90's, each NATO nation has its own way of doing things, and that hasn't changed just because more nations joined it. You may think he's an a-hole (I'm not a fan), but he's their a-hole. Take a look at the map.
Put another way, it's a predictable reaction given past form. Why would you expect a leopard to change his spots?
They made it hard on migrants/immigrants a few years ago, right? This was when Hungary's border was the frontier for the flood coming to the EU?
And you sit in the UK and throw rocks at them, even though for similar motivations Brexit happened?
Precious.
Please pardon my cynicism here, but I don't think y'all have much room to talk.
Ukraine isn't in NATO, so Hungary gets to do whatever they feel like as regards the war next door.
Yes, I know, folks will remember when this war finally stops, and I suspect that may cause a few problems for them because Europeans can hold a grudge like nobody's business.

let me put this in a different light: Orban's little move there is in the same family of poltical moves as Mr Erdogan's "Not So Fast" reaction to Finland and Sweden's NATO joining idea. (Which I am a fan of, Swedes and Finns joining).
Take political advantage when the opportunity presents itself. That's how that game is played.
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Old 25th May 2022, 06:43
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Ominous, what powers does that put in Orban’s hands?

”Hungary declares state of emergency due to war in Ukraine.
About as ominous as the powers taken to control covid (lockdowns, etc). Sound familiar?
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Old 25th May 2022, 06:53
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Originally Posted by MikeSnow
In general, Hungary's behavior in this conflict has been, if not outright pro-Russian, then at the very least anti-Ukraine. Starting with how they treated Ukrainian refugees, requiring initially that they all have biometric passports to be allowed to go through Hungary. Then by refusing to allow military help to be sent to Ukraine through their territory.
But that's not strictly true, is it -

For a short period, Ukrainians without a biometric passport were only allowed into Hungary if they entered directly but not if they came through Romania; this is now not the case and they can enter at the Romania-Hungary border.
Dated 2022/03/20
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Old 25th May 2022, 07:02
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https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...united-states/

Poland requests six additional Patriot batteries from the United States

WARSAW, Poland — Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak has announced his country is launching the second phase of its mid-range air defense program by requesting the U.S. government to sell it six Patriot batteries with related gear.

“We are advancing the contract on the second phase of the Wisła air defense program. I have signed a letter of request related to an acquisition of three divisions, or six batteries of the Patriot system, which will include omnidirectional radars, missile launchers, and a stock of missiles,” Błaszczak said at the Defence24 Day conference in Warsaw, as quoted in a tweet released by the Ministry of National Defence.

According to industry sources at the event, the “omnidirectional” sensor in question is the Raytheon-developed Lower-Tier Air-and-Missile Defense Sensor, or LTAMDS, which the manufacturer has named GhostEye.….

Poland would initially buy – for the Wisla program – two Patriot Configuration 3+ batteries, the latest version of the system. There are two fire units per battery, so Raytheon would deliver four fire units total.

The systems in the first phase have yet to be delivered to the Polish government but, according to an industry source, the first battery will be delivered to Poland to support a system integration and checkout exercise in October, and the second will be turned over to the U.S. government by the end of the calendar year.

It was also agreed that the first systems would have Northrop Grumman’s Integrated Battle Command System, or IBCS, which is currently in initial operational test and evaluation by the U.S. Army. Poland obtained a waiver to procure IBCS for Patriot ahead of the U.S. Army’s procurement for its future Integrated Air and Missile Defense System at the time of the deal…..
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Old 25th May 2022, 08:00
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Nice bit of business for the US there, with more to follow no doubt.
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Old 25th May 2022, 08:25
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Originally Posted by MikeSnow
The problem is that Hungary's current political leaders have recently behaved more like allies of Putin, instead of leaders of a country that is a member of EU and NATO. And, for some time, the political leadership in Hungary copied a lot from the textbook of Putin. For example, in Hungary almost all the press is under de facto control of the government politicians. And the government controlled Hungarian press is now not shy of broadcasting a lot of the Russian fake news regarding the war Ukraine. I doubt that's a coincidence.

In general, Hungary's behavior in this conflict has been, if not outright pro-Russian, then at the very least anti-Ukraine. Starting with how they treated Ukrainian refugees, requiring initially that they all have biometric passports to be allowed to go through Hungary. Then by refusing to allow military help to be sent to Ukraine through their territory. And recently by fighting against EU imposing stronger sanctions, like banning oil imports from Russia.

So, if there is any EU country that should fear the least what Putin might or might not do, that would be Hungary, since they helped him so much. As such, I have to agree with macmp419,most likely this state of emergency is just a way to allow Orban more control over the country, and it wasn't actually needed.
If you want to understand Orbán you should dig a bit deeper. He likes Putin's policy of revisionism because Hungary never really accepted Trianon agreement after WW1 by which they lost great swaths of land to Romania, Czechoslovakia, (later to) Ukraine and Yugoslavia. Orbán gains popularity in his country by instigating vitriolic nationalist speech and actions (giving e.g. passports to Hungarian minorities in mentioned areas the same way like Putin gave passports to Russian speaking Ukrainians in Donbas) and if Putin would in fact invade East Europe Orbán would expect some territories like admiral Horthy after Vienna Arbitration in 1938.

As a side note: Hungary sided with Hitler to gain lost territories and failed completely but that doesn't mean they will not try again. And even though Hungary is nominally NATO and EU country Orbán is hostile not only toward Ukraine but is actively destroying liberal democracy in his country. He likes Putin and Erdogan because they seem to be his political role models.

This is the picture from this site: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Vienna_Award



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Old 25th May 2022, 09:24
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Does he deserve all of this?? That is why we need to supply everything and anything the Ukrainians need.




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Old 25th May 2022, 09:37
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Excellent + brave reportage from Sky's Alex Crawford:

https://news.sky.com/video/alex-craw...ntrol-12620630
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Old 25th May 2022, 09:43
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Does he deserve all of this?? That is why we need to supply everything and anything the Ukrainians need.
I wonder if there'll come a point when either NATO or the likes of the US/UK/Poland say enough's enough and deploy a peacekeeping force into Ukraine? Given Putin's ever-shrinking war aims I doubt he would escalate in response if we did.

On which note there was an interesting comment during the Parliamentary select committee discussion with General Sir Richard Barron posted here a few days ago on whether posting a battalion or two of NATO troops into Kyiv would have deterred Putin, knowing what we know now about Russia's military (in)capabilities.
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Old 25th May 2022, 09:51
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
I wonder if there'll come a point when either NATO or the likes of the US/UK/Poland say enough's enough and deploy a peacekeeping force into Ukraine? Given Putin's ever-shrinking war aims I doubt he would escalate in response if we did.
The areas where NATO or other foreign intervention would have any effect are those where there is no peace to keep. It's not going to happen.
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Old 25th May 2022, 10:13
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
The areas where NATO or other foreign intervention would have any effect are those where there is no peace to keep. It's not going to happen.
They could have an effect in the North of the country which would free up the troops that are being held back to defend from any aggression from Belarus.

Sadly though the peacekeeping force should have went in when Russia announced its intentions to do the same. that would have stopped the war on day one.

One glimmer of hope is it appears Russia is now having to generate a tank battalion on T62's which means they must have exhausted their reserves of modern armour.



Someone makes a good point too


So much for the vast quantities of reserve T-90s, T-80s and T-72s. No autoloader so manned by a crew of 4. Russian crews are familiar with 3 manned autoloader tanks. T-62s - 25% more casaulties. Logistics complicated, 115mm rounds instead of 125mm and diff. spare parts. Desperate

Last edited by NutLoose; 25th May 2022 at 10:32.
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Old 25th May 2022, 10:43
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Originally Posted by Pali
If you want to understand Orbán you should dig a bit deeper. He likes Putin's policy of revisionism because Hungary never really accepted Trianon agreement after WW1 by which they lost great swaths of land to Romania, Czechoslovakia, (later to) Ukraine and Yugoslavia. Orbán gains popularity in his country by instigating vitriolic nationalist speech and actions (giving e.g. passports to Hungarian minorities in mentioned areas the same way like Putin gave passports to Russian speaking Ukrainians in Donbas) and if Putin would in fact invade East Europe Orbán would expect some territories like admiral Horthy after Vienna Arbitration in 1938.

As a side note: Hungary sided with Hitler to gain lost territories and failed completely but that doesn't mean they will not try again. And even though Hungary is nominally NATO and EU country Orbán is hostile not only toward Ukraine but is actively destroying liberal democracy in his country. He likes Putin and Erdogan because they seem to be his political role models.

This is the picture from this site: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Vienna_Award

My thoughts exactly and have been frustrated for some while that the EU won't grow some backbone to stand up to Orban. If NATO were to have Article 5 triggered, I am not at all confident that Hungary would join in and no boubt Putrid will be counting on that
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Old 25th May 2022, 11:01
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Originally Posted by Pali

As a side note: Hungary sided with Hitler to gain lost territories and failed completely but that doesn't mean they will not try again.
While Hungary would like Transylvania & Trans Carpathia back there is no expectation that that will happen.

But if we're going to go into history let's remember that Finland also sided with Hitler to regain lost territories. Romania & Italy also sided with Hitler.
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Old 25th May 2022, 11:48
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. . . so did the Daily Mail
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Old 25th May 2022, 11:50
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Ukrainian sniper ermm, not exactly a subtle stealth approach, I believe they are modified APC weapons?


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