Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Ref Post #5516, "....One thing for sure....the automated gun turret on the tanks has been a gross failure judging by the Turret tossing they are being seen so good at doing when hit by an Anti-Tank weapon that penetrates the Turret...." I too was amazed in the early days of the war when news videos showed the Ukrainian countryside in the Kyiv region to be strewn with inverted tank turrets. Now that the fighting has moved to the eastern theatre we're seeing the same thing. It reminds me of Admiral Beatty's famous remark at the Battle of Jutland in WW1, "There seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships today." If Russian tank turrets can detach so esily it begs the queation, "If the tank crew all farted together would if blow the turret off or simply dislodge it?" And, if either is correct, and given that the Russian soldiers are short of food, then let's airdrop them cans, many cans, of baked beans.
Tanks like the M1 Abrams have their ammunition in separate compartments fitted with blow out panels, so if the compartment suffers a hit the force from the exploding ammo is directed away from the tank.
In the T72, it blows the turret off.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidha...h=4e71b9bd9fc4
Only half a speed-brake
Here are the links to the maps the UKR captain is using:
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/inv...ay-80-summary/
https://deepstatemap.live/#9/48.7517/37.0926
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/inv...ay-80-summary/
https://deepstatemap.live/#9/48.7517/37.0926
I can't see the Reds having anywhere near the 5k marines on their way on any fleet. There just isn't enough capacity even if they would have all the kitchen sinks of mariupol on tow.
Alligators and Ropuchas take ~300 maries each. That's 1500 poor souls on board. They can't have more to Black sea due to draught.
Ondatra takes 22 POB, but it is not for crossing the Black sea. There are estimatdd 15-17 in active service.
Serna is advertised as 92 POB but I'd say that would be a bit crowded. Serna really isn't something you'd want to sit in in high seas. 15 total in active use.
Dyugons (100 marines, 3 shlps at Baltic fleet) could be transferred.
The Ivan Gren class, two built, 300 marines capacity. Theoretically could be transferred but doubtful.
Then there's a handful of smaller boats for teams but I woukd decline participating in a special military operation involving crossing the Black Sea for 30 hours in a rib boat.
All in all, if they really gather everythkng including the looted kitchen sinks they have the capacity for 4000-4500 troops but theyd have nothing left in other fleets (Baltic, Northern, Pacific) except the odd Gators and Ropuchas that don't fit the canal.
Then comes up the question of marines. Russia has roughly 12000 marines including support and logistics. Of which at least a third are conscripts A third is special military operation capable + 800 commandos. Then there are the boat crews plus logistics/support.
However, some of the forces have already been grinded in the war... Furthermore having everyone capable on the boats at this very moment would mean that there are a lot of empty barracks and bases in all other corners of Russia.
to summarize, there is an enormous resource issua with the Russian navy to try and make a meaningful invasion, they just can't do it. Even if everything and everyone would be on scene it would be a great target for a set of Neptunes. Would the reds take that chance? Are they really THAT crazy?
Alligators and Ropuchas take ~300 maries each. That's 1500 poor souls on board. They can't have more to Black sea due to draught.
Ondatra takes 22 POB, but it is not for crossing the Black sea. There are estimatdd 15-17 in active service.
Serna is advertised as 92 POB but I'd say that would be a bit crowded. Serna really isn't something you'd want to sit in in high seas. 15 total in active use.
Dyugons (100 marines, 3 shlps at Baltic fleet) could be transferred.
The Ivan Gren class, two built, 300 marines capacity. Theoretically could be transferred but doubtful.
Then there's a handful of smaller boats for teams but I woukd decline participating in a special military operation involving crossing the Black Sea for 30 hours in a rib boat.
All in all, if they really gather everythkng including the looted kitchen sinks they have the capacity for 4000-4500 troops but theyd have nothing left in other fleets (Baltic, Northern, Pacific) except the odd Gators and Ropuchas that don't fit the canal.
Then comes up the question of marines. Russia has roughly 12000 marines including support and logistics. Of which at least a third are conscripts A third is special military operation capable + 800 commandos. Then there are the boat crews plus logistics/support.
However, some of the forces have already been grinded in the war... Furthermore having everyone capable on the boats at this very moment would mean that there are a lot of empty barracks and bases in all other corners of Russia.
to summarize, there is an enormous resource issua with the Russian navy to try and make a meaningful invasion, they just can't do it. Even if everything and everyone would be on scene it would be a great target for a set of Neptunes. Would the reds take that chance? Are they really THAT crazy?
I can't see the Reds having anywhere near the 5k marines on their way on any fleet. There just isn't enough capacity even if they would have all the kitchen sinks of mariupol on tow.
Alligators and Ropuchas take ~300 maries each. That's 1500 poor souls on board. They can't have more to Black sea due to draught.
Ondatra takes 22 POB, but it is not for crossing the Black sea. There are estimatdd 15-17 in active service.
Serna is advertised as 92 POB but I'd say that would be a bit crowded. Serna really isn't something you'd want to sit in in high seas. 15 total in active use.
Dyugons (100 marines, 3 shlps at Baltic fleet) could be transferred.
The Ivan Gren class, two built, 300 marines capacity. Theoretically could be transferred but doubtful.
Then there's a handful of smaller boats for teams but I woukd decline participating in a special military operation involving crossing the Black Sea for 30 hours in a rib boat.
to summarize, there is an enormous resource issua with the Russian navy to try and make a meaningful invasion, they just can't do it. Even if everything and everyone would be on scene it would be a great target for a set of Neptunes. Would the reds take that chance? Are they really THAT crazy?
Alligators and Ropuchas take ~300 maries each. That's 1500 poor souls on board. They can't have more to Black sea due to draught.
Ondatra takes 22 POB, but it is not for crossing the Black sea. There are estimatdd 15-17 in active service.
Serna is advertised as 92 POB but I'd say that would be a bit crowded. Serna really isn't something you'd want to sit in in high seas. 15 total in active use.
Dyugons (100 marines, 3 shlps at Baltic fleet) could be transferred.
The Ivan Gren class, two built, 300 marines capacity. Theoretically could be transferred but doubtful.
Then there's a handful of smaller boats for teams but I woukd decline participating in a special military operation involving crossing the Black Sea for 30 hours in a rib boat.
to summarize, there is an enormous resource issua with the Russian navy to try and make a meaningful invasion, they just can't do it. Even if everything and everyone would be on scene it would be a great target for a set of Neptunes. Would the reds take that chance? Are they really THAT crazy?
FWIW, the 'get out of the tank business' lobby in the USMC is a number of decades old. (per my notes above). I disagree with Berger's idea that "China" is the core fight (though it needs to be prepared for, certainly). USMC has to be ready to fight in every clime and place where we can take a gun. Maybe the General ought to listen to the Marine Hymn again.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
A Muscovite friend on Facebook published a conscription notice he received today. He is 44.
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Interesting damage pattern on a downed Russian fighter
https://twitter.com/search?q=Starstr...ed_query&f=top
https://twitter.com/search?q=Starstr...ed_query&f=top
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-may-15
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 15
Russian forces have likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to amalgamate soldiers from many different elements, including private military companies and proxy militias, into ostensibly regular army units and naval infantry…..
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate stated that Russian forces are conducting covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient training to be effective and little motivation to fight….
Russian private military companies are reportedly forming combined units with airborne elements due to significant losses in manpower. Denaturing elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and would be the clearest indication yet that Russia has exhausted its available combat-ready manpower reserves…..
The Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is reportedly receiving personnel from other Black Sea Fleet units, including navy ship crew members.
Newly formed or regrouped units are unlikely to be effective in combat….
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 15
Russian forces have likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to amalgamate soldiers from many different elements, including private military companies and proxy militias, into ostensibly regular army units and naval infantry…..
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate stated that Russian forces are conducting covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient training to be effective and little motivation to fight….
Russian private military companies are reportedly forming combined units with airborne elements due to significant losses in manpower. Denaturing elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and would be the clearest indication yet that Russia has exhausted its available combat-ready manpower reserves…..
The Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is reportedly receiving personnel from other Black Sea Fleet units, including navy ship crew members.
Newly formed or regrouped units are unlikely to be effective in combat….
oh man, that's not going to end well. The discussion earlier regarding the possible landing near Odessa will be a disaster if they are really trying to do it with a combination of forces untrained for the task and untrained to work together against an enemy that has the gear, the motivation and the experience. May as well send the poor sailors to try and fly an alligator. Or a SU-25 pilot piloting a landing craft.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Ukrainian forces destroying the railway bridge between Severodonetsk and Rubizhne to prevent its use by Russian forces to resupply.
Russia is a failed state in every respect that one may care to consider.
They have subjugated their own population by violence and murder, to the point that an already cowering population, used to being beaten by their masters since 947AD consider it a good day if they are not being personally sent to the Gulag, wishing only for the return to the good ol' days of sending your neighbor to the Gulag on innuendo and obsequience.
Russia's claim to honor is from the Great Patriotic War, an event that was much worse due to the purge of the military command by Stalin that pre-dated Barbarossa, and which followed as hardly an improbable response from the Molotov - Von Ribbentrop agreement (Aug 23, 1939) setting up to carve up a sovereign neighbor. Lie down with dogs, you get fleas. Western teaching on the USSR has usually contended that more Russians, Belorussians, and Ukrainians died at the hands of Stalin's regime during the Great Patriotic War than died from the German invasion. Snyder (2011) suggests that is slightly incorrect. The Russians did deliberately kill 3.3 million Ukrainians in 1932 - 33. At least a further 1.7 million USSR citizens died from famine from 1930 - 33. The most recent review of USSR civilian casualties related to Barbarossa is approximately 11 million. USSR contended that 1.65 million Ukrainians died in military service, Ukraine's own estimate is 7 million.
The Russians that wistfully remember the good ol' days seem to forget how much brutality and death came with those leaders.
The decision by Putin to have a tiff with his neighbors, breaking every treaty and agreement that had been made and putting Russian honor down the waste pipe is going to have flow-on effects to the 3rd world, and we could see more people die as a direct result of his paranoid actions than Stalin achieved along with his pact mate, the vegetarian painter corporal. Around 1.5 billion people are looking at insufficient food supplies in Q4 of 2022 directly from Putin and his actions. What that results in is going to be pretty darn interesting; usually, nothing good comes of it.
They have subjugated their own population by violence and murder, to the point that an already cowering population, used to being beaten by their masters since 947AD consider it a good day if they are not being personally sent to the Gulag, wishing only for the return to the good ol' days of sending your neighbor to the Gulag on innuendo and obsequience.
Russia's claim to honor is from the Great Patriotic War, an event that was much worse due to the purge of the military command by Stalin that pre-dated Barbarossa, and which followed as hardly an improbable response from the Molotov - Von Ribbentrop agreement (Aug 23, 1939) setting up to carve up a sovereign neighbor. Lie down with dogs, you get fleas. Western teaching on the USSR has usually contended that more Russians, Belorussians, and Ukrainians died at the hands of Stalin's regime during the Great Patriotic War than died from the German invasion. Snyder (2011) suggests that is slightly incorrect. The Russians did deliberately kill 3.3 million Ukrainians in 1932 - 33. At least a further 1.7 million USSR citizens died from famine from 1930 - 33. The most recent review of USSR civilian casualties related to Barbarossa is approximately 11 million. USSR contended that 1.65 million Ukrainians died in military service, Ukraine's own estimate is 7 million.
The Russians that wistfully remember the good ol' days seem to forget how much brutality and death came with those leaders.
The decision by Putin to have a tiff with his neighbors, breaking every treaty and agreement that had been made and putting Russian honor down the waste pipe is going to have flow-on effects to the 3rd world, and we could see more people die as a direct result of his paranoid actions than Stalin achieved along with his pact mate, the vegetarian painter corporal. Around 1.5 billion people are looking at insufficient food supplies in Q4 of 2022 directly from Putin and his actions. What that results in is going to be pretty darn interesting; usually, nothing good comes of it.
vlad the impaler, vlad the poisoner, vlad the master strategist not, vlad the war criminal won't like being called out for what he is. Your postings surely get read in his failed country and your efforts to exclude his country from the UNSC & UNGA won't go unnoticed.
Wherever you are stay safe and check your undies for novichok and your tea for polonium....
DoT
The times of threatening people into submission fortunately have passed if you look at Finland and Sweden.
There was a video on Twitter doing the rounds a few days back where a journalist was vox-popping people in some Russian city which went something like this:
Journo: "Do you love your country?"
Russian: "Yes!"
Journo: "What would you do for your country?"
Russian:"Anything!!"
Journo (pulling out a clipboard): "Okay, I'm compiling a list of people willing to fight the Nazis in Ukraine for the defence ministry. Could you provide me with your name and address?"
Russian makes a rapid exit left.
Where does he stand on the war? If he's in favour then it shouldn't be a problem.
There was a video on Twitter doing the rounds a few days back where a journalist was vox-popping people in some Russian city which went something like this:
Journo: "Do you love your country?"
Russian: "Yes!"
Journo: "What would you do for your country?"
Russian:"Anything!!"
Journo (pulling out a clipboard): "Okay, I'm compiling a list of people willing to fight the Nazis in Ukraine for the defence ministry. Could you provide me with your name and address?"
Russian makes a rapid exit left.
There was a video on Twitter doing the rounds a few days back where a journalist was vox-popping people in some Russian city which went something like this:
Journo: "Do you love your country?"
Russian: "Yes!"
Journo: "What would you do for your country?"
Russian:"Anything!!"
Journo (pulling out a clipboard): "Okay, I'm compiling a list of people willing to fight the Nazis in Ukraine for the defence ministry. Could you provide me with your name and address?"
Russian makes a rapid exit left.
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Incendiary cluster bombs?
careful FDR
vlad the impaler, vlad the poisoner, vlad the master strategist not, vlad the war criminal won't like being called out for what he is. Your postings surely get read in his failed country and your efforts to exclude his country from the UNSC & UNGA won't go unnoticed.
Wherever you are stay safe and check your undies for novichok and your tea for polonium....
DoT
vlad the impaler, vlad the poisoner, vlad the master strategist not, vlad the war criminal won't like being called out for what he is. Your postings surely get read in his failed country and your efforts to exclude his country from the UNSC & UNGA won't go unnoticed.
Wherever you are stay safe and check your undies for novichok and your tea for polonium....
DoT
Russia, if you are listening...
I flew a jet over northern Ukraine at 3;30 the morning that Chernobyl popped, so they have already added enough Pu, and St90 to a lot more people than their GRU/FSB has achieved.
A lot of truly brave people have stood up against the tyranny of the Russian Federation, and are doing so today, many paid dearly for that, such as
- Anna Politskaya,
- Ilyas Shurpayev
- Yury Shebalkin
- Konstantin Borovko
- Leonid Etkind
- Sergey Bogdanovsky
- Dmitry Krikoryants
- Ivan Scopan
- Rory Peck
- Igor Belozerov
- Sergey Krasilnikov
- Vladimir Drobyshev
- Alexander Sidelnikov
- Alexander Smirnov,
- Elena Tkacheva
- Marina Iskanderova
- Sergei Dubov
- Yury Soltys,
- Andrey Ayzderdzis
- Tatyana Zhuravlyova
- Yelena Roshchina
- Dmitry Kholodov
- Hussein Guzuyev
- Gelani Charigov
- Cynthia Elbaum
- Bilal Akhmadov,
- Vladimir Zhitarenko
- Pyotr Novikov
- Sultan Nuriyev
- Jochen Piest
- Valentin Yanus
- Vyacheslav Rudnev
- Maxim Shabalin
- Farkhad Kerimov
- Andrei Ulanov
- Sergei Ananyev
- Yury Litvinov
- Alexander Zaitsev, (no relation to Vasily)
- etc etc etc....
Last edited by fdr; 16th May 2022 at 10:54.
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