Originally Posted by
SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
fdr , what is the source please of the graphic in your post? The numbers differ wildly from those in other, attributed, messages.
ie 22 AC vs. 169 in Nutloose's running tallies from Kyiv Independent.
or Helos 35 vs. 150
or MLRS 55 vs. 132
as examples of large variance in numbers. I know facts are hard to come by but something is way off as I see it, or am I missing soemthing?
These are the losses that are considered to be
confirmed on
ORYX. ORYX DATA. That is, there is identifying photographic evidence to the loss. The actual losses will certainly be higher. The hard kill cases are quite a large percentage of the totals, but the captured and abandoned cases are considerable. They are still combat noneffective outcomes so impact the force available to the sides. On the other hand, the Ukrainians seem to have been quite accurate with the statement of Red personnel losses, and are possibly understated, just looking at the hardware losses and the crewing of the systems, they seem to be close to truth. The fatality to injury rate of this conflict is not going to be the same as prior conflicts, The Reds seem quite prepared to leave injured team members in the field. The Blue 'n Gold team are getting hit with H.E., and that has a high fatality to injury rate. This isn't likely to be a 1:4 ratio, I would think 1:3 to 1:2 is going to be the final gruesome statistic. The Reds may have medic capability that is set up, haven't seen any evidence of dustoff or ground ambulances anywhere near the fight. The defenders have a critical continuing shortage of field dressing, first aid capability. The attackers show absolutely no regard to conventions related to injured combatants, which is in keeping with their disregard of civilian rights, both Ukrainian and their purported group they are "helping", the Russian leaning section of Donbas and east Ukraine.
Tank v tank is not a great option for Ukraine, but coordinated drone spotting and arty would seem to be very effective. If TB-2s have the munition supply, then great too, but arty with correction is going to have a greater weight on target as things are going at present. Stopping the Russians doing the same is the most asymmetric option that could be employed at this time. There are systems, they are not in widespread use.
Overstating wins and minimising losses is historical of all conflict, and is good
PR, but the decisions that are taken need to be made on valid data, and that suggests at present that exuberant overstating of a system effectiveness can result in getting the wrong system to the warfighter.
Tanks right now are targets, they could be helpful for the Blue 'n gold if positioned in cover without Red team drone observation. Open fields will be brutal for MBT/IFV/AFVs that are not rapidly advancing. Bottlenecks will set up kill boxes pretty quickly. If this is a valid position it suggests that the Blue 'n Gold have force multiplier if they can disrupt Red drone ISR. That is good until the Reds get around to doing the same, but they have to go ask the Chinese for DJI, or Ukraine for the same.... so, they have a bit of an issue with the consequences of their actions.
The most asymmetric response is to run a lottery for Russians for whoever removes Putin to an asylum or
xxxxx, or [fill the blank] or to Lefortovo, as he has caused more damage to Russia than any other person since Round II. And before the objections that he is popular in his own land come up, anyone pointing a gun at your head is going to get a popular vote in most cases,
von Stauffenberg excepted. Russia is built on lies, has been throughout its history which is a shame, as the Russians I have known are good people, and hate their government.
PS: ORYX data was reasonable where there was access to the area of combat losses. Right now, that is going to be way out of date and will understate the Russian losses greatly, and will probably understate Ukrainian losses as well. Drone footage is still being published, that is mainly from the Ukraine side.