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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:37
  #2481 (permalink)  
 
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Lots of talk of the possibility of Russia deploying a tactical nuke. The premise seems to be: show of force, intimidate the west, stop them from intervening.

Thing is, aside from sanctions and sending portable air-defence and anti-tank weaponry the west has been hands-off militarily. So to what end would Russia throw a tactical nuke? There is little upside, and a massive downside risk in further escalation. And given their performance so far, you'd think the last thing on the minds of the Russian generals is further escalation (see below from Atlantic Council). And one presumes that on a political level Vlad's inner circle must be focused on mitigating the sanctions which will start biting hard shortly.

Personally I don't see it (tactical nuke) as a zero probability scenario, but it would be another irrational miss-step that pretty much closes any off-ramp that Vlad may have. Highly unlikely.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-crisis-military-assessment-why-did-russias-invasion-stumble/]Russia
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:38
  #2482 (permalink)  

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Meanwhile, a Mi24/35 kill gets recorded.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsin...npad_operator/




The airborne forces seem to have little to do at the moment and even less room for it.

Last edited by FlightDetent; 5th Mar 2022 at 08:50.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:40
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I understand that thought, however I don't believe that the baltics would be handed over. It would mean that next in line is Poland good bye, then Germany farewell, eventually he'll be on the channel pointing his nukes to UK. Everyone surrendering one after another since no one would trust on NATO. Therefore I don't believe that storyline is plausible.

Fine, for arguments sake lets say Sweden and Finland gets nuked, no one bats an eye. Threaten Estonia with the same and I believe it'll be matched.

I sincerely hope we'll never find out who's right on this.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:44
  #2484 (permalink)  
 
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I'm beginning to wonder whether the thought of potentially tens of millions of Ukrainian refugees crossing the border into Poland etc could be construed as an attack on NATO and justify some form of defensive peacekeeping operation e.g. establishment of a safe haven in the west of the country? This flood of refugees could well be an order of magnitude worse than the 2015 migrant crisis.

Given events on the Belarus-Poland border last year, may be this was part of Putin's plan.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:51
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Originally Posted by Usertim
Here is an interesting article from yesterday about the continued lack of impact of the Russian AF

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...air-operations
Never really clocked the point about their flypasts. Of course we do the same here but that's because of years of budget cuts, not operational and training constraints...

On a related note, how far would we have expected the Warsaw Pact t have advanced by now - the French border? Modern day Russia hasn't even secured territory a few tens of miles from its border...
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:07
  #2486 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Beamr
Fine, for arguments sake lets say Sweden and Finland gets nuked, no one bats an eye.
The Chinese would open all of their 1.4 bil. pairs at once, seismically recordable. The big question is what will they (want to) see.


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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:14
  #2487 (permalink)  
 
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When there is no air threat what would be the point of a no-fly zone? Nothing is flying anywhere, or if they do it's Ukrainian roulette - see #2620 above.

Also when the majority of the Ukrainian Air Force is intact

IG
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:20
  #2488 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Imagegear

Also when the majority of the Ukrainian Air Force is intact

IG
is it ? I recall next to no information about that. How large was it to begin with ?
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:26
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There seems to be speculation concerning Russia opening a second front in Europe. With what? I don't think that Russia has enough combat ready soldiers to fight two wars on two fronts.
Russian doctrine for the use of tactical nuclear weapons used to be that they would be used to clear enemy positions that were delaying the advance of their army. Little credence was given to the concept of escalation. In my opinion Ukraine is not geographically big enough to make the use of tactical nuclear weapons practicable.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:42
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No specific numbers however:

UKRAF

Recent Numbers

IG


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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:58
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
What?

You mean the Russians might think it is somebody else's B-2?

Fot goodness sake...
If the Russians cannot detect the B-2, then they would have no idea what happened...that is the point.

Does anyone know? Can the B-2 strike a target(s) in Ukraine, undetected?
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:59
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Run out of Rivet Joints? Currently a Lockheed EP-3E Orion reg 16-1410 is patrolling along the Moldovan border.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 10:07
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Fight for Ukraine
​​​​​​
Volunteers from Israel answered the call.
This could be quite a lethal force for any adversary.


Last edited by Pali; 5th Mar 2022 at 10:14. Reason: Something wrong with displaying the video
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 10:26
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the video above refers to the special operation - so i suspect published by our friends in the east? can we do the minimum source credibility before posting this sh!t3
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 10:37
  #2495 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FlightDetent
Meanwhile, a Mi24/35 kill gets recorded.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsin...npad_operator/




The airborne forces seem to have little to do at the moment and even less room for it.
Succesful sniper hit on a high ranking Russian officer?

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Old 5th Mar 2022, 10:46
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That helicopter takedown, doesn’t the damned thing plow into some houses in a fireball?
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 10:47
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EP-3E Aries II - different SIGINT profile?

https://www.navy.mil/Resources/Fact-Files/Display-FactFiles/Article/2391031/ep-3e-aries-ii/

P.S. I hope the 6 RAF crews and their ground support whose 2 different missions returned them to their OB @0030 local last night are having a well earned rest.

ZP803 just flown from Sigonella to fly complex pattern South of Akrotiri - could be naval activity needing observing.

Last edited by SLXOwft; 5th Mar 2022 at 10:53. Reason: Poseidon
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 10:50
  #2498 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by atpcliff
If the Russians cannot detect the B-2, then they would have no idea what happened...that is the point.

Does anyone know? Can the B-2 strike a target(s) in Ukraine, undetected?
Well, no it isn't. We're not in a court-of-law, so you don't have to prove things to a legal standard, especially if it's to a paranoid nut-case. If 20 tonnes of bombs get dropped on a convoy and there is nothing visible on any detection system, do you really think their reasoning will be " We couldn't see anything, therefore there was nothing, therefore this must have been a natural phenomenon of very violent localised wind or ,something " ? I don't think so.

You are also ignoring the fact that bombs/missiles do not destroy themselves down to the molecular level: there are always fragments that can be identified, especially if they have helpful part-nos painted on.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 11:06
  #2499 (permalink)  
 
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People going on about tactical nukes and dropping one on the likes of Finland, we would probably all get part of the fallout in NATO countries, surely that would be seen as an act of war.

As an example this is the fallout map and how far it spread following Chernobyl.

https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img...=1587393346026


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Old 5th Mar 2022, 11:07
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Leave that convoy alone. It is immobilised and is providing a convenient and extensive road block, not to mention being a drain on resources, a morale sapper and a significant embarrassment. Moreover, in time, the vehicles might be repurposed to the advantage of the other side or for the benefit of the Ukrainian agricultural community who seem to like these things.

I suspect it is also the reason for the new thrust towards Kyiv from the NE.
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