Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Lots of talk of the possibility of Russia deploying a tactical nuke. The premise seems to be: show of force, intimidate the west, stop them from intervening.
Thing is, aside from sanctions and sending portable air-defence and anti-tank weaponry the west has been hands-off militarily. So to what end would Russia throw a tactical nuke? There is little upside, and a massive downside risk in further escalation. And given their performance so far, you'd think the last thing on the minds of the Russian generals is further escalation (see below from Atlantic Council). And one presumes that on a political level Vlad's inner circle must be focused on mitigating the sanctions which will start biting hard shortly.
Personally I don't see it (tactical nuke) as a zero probability scenario, but it would be another irrational miss-step that pretty much closes any off-ramp that Vlad may have. Highly unlikely.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-crisis-military-assessment-why-did-russias-invasion-stumble/]Russia
Thing is, aside from sanctions and sending portable air-defence and anti-tank weaponry the west has been hands-off militarily. So to what end would Russia throw a tactical nuke? There is little upside, and a massive downside risk in further escalation. And given their performance so far, you'd think the last thing on the minds of the Russian generals is further escalation (see below from Atlantic Council). And one presumes that on a political level Vlad's inner circle must be focused on mitigating the sanctions which will start biting hard shortly.
Personally I don't see it (tactical nuke) as a zero probability scenario, but it would be another irrational miss-step that pretty much closes any off-ramp that Vlad may have. Highly unlikely.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-crisis-military-assessment-why-did-russias-invasion-stumble/]Russia
Only half a speed-brake
https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsin...npad_operator/
The airborne forces seem to have little to do at the moment and even less room for it.
Last edited by FlightDetent; 5th Mar 2022 at 09:50.
I understand that thought, however I don't believe that the baltics would be handed over. It would mean that next in line is Poland good bye, then Germany farewell, eventually he'll be on the channel pointing his nukes to UK. Everyone surrendering one after another since no one would trust on NATO. Therefore I don't believe that storyline is plausible.
Fine, for arguments sake lets say Sweden and Finland gets nuked, no one bats an eye. Threaten Estonia with the same and I believe it'll be matched.
I sincerely hope we'll never find out who's right on this.
Fine, for arguments sake lets say Sweden and Finland gets nuked, no one bats an eye. Threaten Estonia with the same and I believe it'll be matched.
I sincerely hope we'll never find out who's right on this.
I'm beginning to wonder whether the thought of potentially tens of millions of Ukrainian refugees crossing the border into Poland etc could be construed as an attack on NATO and justify some form of defensive peacekeeping operation e.g. establishment of a safe haven in the west of the country? This flood of refugees could well be an order of magnitude worse than the 2015 migrant crisis.
Given events on the Belarus-Poland border last year, may be this was part of Putin's plan.
Given events on the Belarus-Poland border last year, may be this was part of Putin's plan.
Here is an interesting article from yesterday about the continued lack of impact of the Russian AF
https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...air-operations
https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...air-operations
On a related note, how far would we have expected the Warsaw Pact t have advanced by now - the French border? Modern day Russia hasn't even secured territory a few tens of miles from its border...
Only half a speed-brake
When there is no air threat what would be the point of a no-fly zone? Nothing is flying anywhere, or if they do it's Ukrainian roulette - see #2620 above.
Also when the majority of the Ukrainian Air Force is intact
IG
Also when the majority of the Ukrainian Air Force is intact
IG
There seems to be speculation concerning Russia opening a second front in Europe. With what? I don't think that Russia has enough combat ready soldiers to fight two wars on two fronts.
Russian doctrine for the use of tactical nuclear weapons used to be that they would be used to clear enemy positions that were delaying the advance of their army. Little credence was given to the concept of escalation. In my opinion Ukraine is not geographically big enough to make the use of tactical nuclear weapons practicable.
Russian doctrine for the use of tactical nuclear weapons used to be that they would be used to clear enemy positions that were delaying the advance of their army. Little credence was given to the concept of escalation. In my opinion Ukraine is not geographically big enough to make the use of tactical nuclear weapons practicable.
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Fight for Ukraine
This could be quite a lethal force for any adversary.
Last edited by Pali; 5th Mar 2022 at 11:14. Reason: Something wrong with displaying the video
Meanwhile, a Mi24/35 kill gets recorded.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsin...npad_operator/
The airborne forces seem to have little to do at the moment and even less room for it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsin...npad_operator/
The airborne forces seem to have little to do at the moment and even less room for it.
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That helicopter takedown, doesn’t the damned thing plow into some houses in a fireball?
EP-3E Aries II - different SIGINT profile?
https://www.navy.mil/Resources/Fact-Files/Display-FactFiles/Article/2391031/ep-3e-aries-ii/
P.S. I hope the 6 RAF crews and their ground support whose 2 different missions returned them to their OB @0030 local last night are having a well earned rest.
ZP803 just flown from Sigonella to fly complex pattern South of Akrotiri - could be naval activity needing observing.
https://www.navy.mil/Resources/Fact-Files/Display-FactFiles/Article/2391031/ep-3e-aries-ii/
P.S. I hope the 6 RAF crews and their ground support whose 2 different missions returned them to their OB @0030 local last night are having a well earned rest.
ZP803 just flown from Sigonella to fly complex pattern South of Akrotiri - could be naval activity needing observing.
Last edited by SLXOwft; 5th Mar 2022 at 11:53. Reason: Poseidon
You are also ignoring the fact that bombs/missiles do not destroy themselves down to the molecular level: there are always fragments that can be identified, especially if they have helpful part-nos painted on.
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People going on about tactical nukes and dropping one on the likes of Finland, we would probably all get part of the fallout in NATO countries, surely that would be seen as an act of war.
As an example this is the fallout map and how far it spread following Chernobyl.
https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img...=1587393346026
As an example this is the fallout map and how far it spread following Chernobyl.
https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img...=1587393346026
Leave that convoy alone. It is immobilised and is providing a convenient and extensive road block, not to mention being a drain on resources, a morale sapper and a significant embarrassment. Moreover, in time, the vehicles might be repurposed to the advantage of the other side or for the benefit of the Ukrainian agricultural community who seem to like these things.
I suspect it is also the reason for the new thrust towards Kyiv from the NE.
I suspect it is also the reason for the new thrust towards Kyiv from the NE.
