Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Drain Bamaged
Your concern about a war loss pushing Russia into a no option nuclear attack is a concern I have always shared. But the button pushers will have no doubt that the barrage coming straight back at them would be rapid and of greater magnitude. It's a risk, but has always been there and to date an impeccably well handled situation of avoiding WW3.
The West is getting quite the bargain in reducing Russian strength, but like McCarthy, Putin doesn't know how to quit. He hasn't run dry in ordinance yet and has found more suppliers.
There's massive sacrifice from the Ukrainians, but succumbing to Putin is not an alternative in their eyes.
It depends on how much pain (economic and sons lost) Russians can tolerate. Russian mothers were exerting serious public pressure over 10,000 sons lost in Afghanistan. It surprises me that Putin has been so far able to paper over the loss of over 100,000. Losses in Vietnam triggered years of demonstrations in the US well before the toll came to 50,000 over some ten years.
Back in WWI, the German people rose up against the Kaiser and threw him out. Perhaps the best we can hope for is that Putin sets up house in Iran.
If Putin sustains his misadventure, we may settle down to a prolonged hot border such as we have seen in the ME.
There's massive sacrifice from the Ukrainians, but succumbing to Putin is not an alternative in their eyes.
It depends on how much pain (economic and sons lost) Russians can tolerate. Russian mothers were exerting serious public pressure over 10,000 sons lost in Afghanistan. It surprises me that Putin has been so far able to paper over the loss of over 100,000. Losses in Vietnam triggered years of demonstrations in the US well before the toll came to 50,000 over some ten years.
Back in WWI, the German people rose up against the Kaiser and threw him out. Perhaps the best we can hope for is that Putin sets up house in Iran.
If Putin sustains his misadventure, we may settle down to a prolonged hot border such as we have seen in the ME.
Last edited by RatherBeFlying; 9th Jan 2023 at 00:56.
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The West is getting quite the bargain in reducing Russian strength, but like McCarthy, Putin doesn't know how to quit. He hasn't run dry in ordinance yet and has found more suppliers.
There's massive sacrifice from the Ukrainians, but succumbing to Putin is not an alternative in their eyes.
There's massive sacrifice from the Ukrainians, but succumbing to Putin is not an alternative in their eyes.
The problem is most Russians are not feeling much pain. High energy prices have allowed Putin to mostly insulate the economy from the effects of sanctions and a strangle hold on the media has been effective at keeping Russian public opinion mostly on side. Putin still has the option to go to a full war footing and general mobilization. If that happens he can bring a lot more manpower to the war.
This option would obviously be time limited before Putin risked widespread popular discontent, but it is the obvious next step if you agree Putin is in a must win at any cost scenario.
Putin is betting he can outlast the Western resolve to back Ukraine’s resolve to defeat Putin on Ukrainian soil. The one thing he can’t afford is another major loss of the territory he has already won.
This option would obviously be time limited before Putin risked widespread popular discontent, but it is the obvious next step if you agree Putin is in a must win at any cost scenario.
Putin is betting he can outlast the Western resolve to back Ukraine’s resolve to defeat Putin on Ukrainian soil. The one thing he can’t afford is another major loss of the territory he has already won.
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Must remember that he hasn’t actually ‘won’ anything yet. Certainly no hearts. He has grabbed land and towns, changed the signposts, either renationalized or expelled the population, started brainwashing the remaining children in schools, banned Ukrainian money, and is refusing to return these stolen lands.
Somehow, he is digging in his heels, and trying to draw a line and make it stick…
Somehow, he is digging in his heels, and trying to draw a line and make it stick…
A RuZZian concentration camp; Russians camp and Ukrainians concentrate. Rinse and repeat.
The problem is most Russians are not feeling much pain. High energy prices have allowed Putin to mostly insulate the economy from the effects of sanctions and a strangle hold on the media has been effective at keeping Russian public opinion mostly on side. Putin still has the option to go to a full war footing and general mobilization. If that happens he can bring a lot more manpower to the war.
This option would obviously be time limited before Putin risked widespread popular discontent, but it is the obvious next step if you agree Putin is in a must win at any cost scenario.
Putin is betting he can outlast the Western resolve to back Ukraine’s resolve to defeat Putin on Ukrainian soil. The one thing he can’t afford is another major loss of the territory he has already won.
This option would obviously be time limited before Putin risked widespread popular discontent, but it is the obvious next step if you agree Putin is in a must win at any cost scenario.
Putin is betting he can outlast the Western resolve to back Ukraine’s resolve to defeat Putin on Ukrainian soil. The one thing he can’t afford is another major loss of the territory he has already won.
Russian are very unhappy with the war but cannot express it.
Most of what you say is Russian propaganda.
An overly optimistic view of the probable end state can be just as bad as an overly pessimistic one, During the opening weeks of the war Ukraine was written off. Now the narrative is hard over the other way with pundits saying Ukraines defeat of Russia is inevitable. A cold dispassionate view of the battle space suggests that a stalemate is the most likely outcome and so what does that mean for European and US interests because they are ultimately going to decide the end state, not Ukraine.
Like the military Junta in Myanmar, I think Putin took a leaf out of Trump's Never-admit-defeat-even-when-you've-lost book.
Yes there is a lot of Russian propaganda but there is also Western bias in the reporting as well. Western media has consistently overstated the affects of sanctions and seek out and report any anti Putin messaging they can find giving it perhaps more importance than it deserves. Like most outside looking in situations the facts on the ground are hard to discern.
An overly optimistic view of the probable end state can be just as bad as an overly pessimistic one, During the opening weeks of the war Ukraine was written off. Now the narrative is hard over the other way with pundits saying Ukraines defeat of Russia is inevitable. A cold dispassionate view of the battle space suggests that a stalemate is the most likely outcome and so what does that mean for European and US interests because they are ultimately going to decide the end state, not Ukraine.
An overly optimistic view of the probable end state can be just as bad as an overly pessimistic one, During the opening weeks of the war Ukraine was written off. Now the narrative is hard over the other way with pundits saying Ukraines defeat of Russia is inevitable. A cold dispassionate view of the battle space suggests that a stalemate is the most likely outcome and so what does that mean for European and US interests because they are ultimately going to decide the end state, not Ukraine.
Losing a huge chunk of state income will damage a petro- state, no doubt about it
Over the years Russia will lose its entire oil industry as the country declies and the oil fields fail without Western technology. Russia has no other industry.
The Allies have decide to supply Ukraine what it needs to destroy Russian invading forces. The timing of that event is unknown.
Hence the whimpering for a stalemate and peace talks for the Russians and their Useful Idiots.
Nope, that's the Russian viewpoint. Propaganda in fact.
Losing a huge chunk of state income will damage a petro- state, no doubt about it
Over the years Russia will lose its entire oil industry as the country declies and the oil fields fail without Western technology. Russia has no other industry.
The Allies have decide to supply Ukraine what it needs to destroy Russian invading forces. The timing of that event is unknown.
Hence the whimpering for a stalemate and peace talks for the Russians and their Useful Idiots.
Losing a huge chunk of state income will damage a petro- state, no doubt about it
Over the years Russia will lose its entire oil industry as the country declies and the oil fields fail without Western technology. Russia has no other industry.
The Allies have decide to supply Ukraine what it needs to destroy Russian invading forces. The timing of that event is unknown.
Hence the whimpering for a stalemate and peace talks for the Russians and their Useful Idiots.
Keep feeding those poor mobiks and your materiel into the meat and metal grinder Vladimir... you're playing right into our hands.
The ratio of NATO expenditure to Ukrainian losses versus Russian losses makes it a no-brainer for the West.
It's a horribly cynical strategy but has proved very effective so far.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...aine-cwzqhl02j
Condoleezza Rice: Putin ‘must be stopped now’
Condoleezza Rice, the former secretary of state, called for a dramatic increase in military assistance for Ukraine to push back President Putin’s troops and head off a direct confrontation between the US and Russia.
She argues in a joint appeal with Robert Gates, the defence secretary under Presidents Bush and Obama, that failure to ramp up help for Ukraine will embolden Putin to attack Nato allies.
They applauded the US and German decision last week to send Ukraine armoured fighting vehicles for the first time, but urged other Nato allies to do the same and to add longer-range missiles, advanced drones, significant ammunition stocks and more surveillance capability.
Without a significant military breakthrough, western pressure will grow to negotiate a ceasefire that would “leave Russian forces in a strong position to resume their invasion whenever they are ready”, they said. In a joint article for The Washington Post, they added: “The only way to avoid such a scenario is for the United States and its allies to urgently provide Ukraine with a dramatic increase in military supplies and capability.
“The United States has learnt the hard way — in 1914, 1941 and 2001 — that unprovoked aggression and attacks on the rule of law and the international order cannot be ignored.” They concluded: “It is better to stop him now, before more is demanded of the United States and Nato.”
Condoleezza Rice: Putin ‘must be stopped now’
Condoleezza Rice, the former secretary of state, called for a dramatic increase in military assistance for Ukraine to push back President Putin’s troops and head off a direct confrontation between the US and Russia.
She argues in a joint appeal with Robert Gates, the defence secretary under Presidents Bush and Obama, that failure to ramp up help for Ukraine will embolden Putin to attack Nato allies.
They applauded the US and German decision last week to send Ukraine armoured fighting vehicles for the first time, but urged other Nato allies to do the same and to add longer-range missiles, advanced drones, significant ammunition stocks and more surveillance capability.
Without a significant military breakthrough, western pressure will grow to negotiate a ceasefire that would “leave Russian forces in a strong position to resume their invasion whenever they are ready”, they said. In a joint article for The Washington Post, they added: “The only way to avoid such a scenario is for the United States and its allies to urgently provide Ukraine with a dramatic increase in military supplies and capability.
“The United States has learnt the hard way — in 1914, 1941 and 2001 — that unprovoked aggression and attacks on the rule of law and the international order cannot be ignored.” They concluded: “It is better to stop him now, before more is demanded of the United States and Nato.”
By calling Putins intentions early, NATO completely derailed Russia's "easy win". The cost to Russia has been made massive.
Even if they manage to destroy Ukraine and install their own governance (unlikely), when will that massive investment ever pay dividends? They'll be left with an indigenous population that hates them, and a ruined country.
I think a strong influence campaign is needed to communicate to the Russian population the only way out...get Putin to cut his losses and withdraw entirely while the term "Russia" still exists.
Even if they manage to destroy Ukraine and install their own governance (unlikely), when will that massive investment ever pay dividends? They'll be left with an indigenous population that hates them, and a ruined country.
I think a strong influence campaign is needed to communicate to the Russian population the only way out...get Putin to cut his losses and withdraw entirely while the term "Russia" still exists.
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Also, while we are at it, Russia and China gave North Korea (DPRK) a series of unthinkable and devastating modern weaponry that they could never have evolved/developed themselves in under a century. Far, far beyond anything that has been trickle-fed into Ukraine so far; Putin even in his own 'rational' world view, really does not have a leg to stand upon.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...aine-cwzqhl02j
Condoleezza Rice: Putin ‘must be stopped now’
Condoleezza Rice, the former secretary of state, called for a dramatic increase in military assistance for Ukraine to push back President Putin’s troops and head off a direct confrontation between the US and Russia.
She argues in a joint appeal with Robert Gates, the defence secretary under Presidents Bush and Obama, that failure to ramp up help for Ukraine will embolden Putin to attack Nato allies.
They applauded the US and German decision last week to send Ukraine armoured fighting vehicles for the first time, but urged other Nato allies to do the same and to add longer-range missiles, advanced drones, significant ammunition stocks and more surveillance capability.
”
Condoleezza Rice: Putin ‘must be stopped now’
Condoleezza Rice, the former secretary of state, called for a dramatic increase in military assistance for Ukraine to push back President Putin’s troops and head off a direct confrontation between the US and Russia.
She argues in a joint appeal with Robert Gates, the defence secretary under Presidents Bush and Obama, that failure to ramp up help for Ukraine will embolden Putin to attack Nato allies.
They applauded the US and German decision last week to send Ukraine armoured fighting vehicles for the first time, but urged other Nato allies to do the same and to add longer-range missiles, advanced drones, significant ammunition stocks and more surveillance capability.
”
None of the current speculative posters (myself included) are party to the UKR General Staff information and planning. What we do know is that when they were ready they were able to mount a manoeuvre that took a major slice of the Kharkiv region, and later all the Kherson region on the right bank of the Dnieper river, in each case in a few days.
Russian planning has not changed since day 1. - throw waves of cannon fodder at well placed defences, and attack civilian infrastructure. This has severely inconvenienced Ukraine, but demonstrably has not changed the course of the war. What was defined by making the same mistakes repeatedly ?.
It will be interesting to review this thread in 3 months, 6 months and a year.
Russian planning has not changed since day 1. - throw waves of cannon fodder at well placed defences, and attack civilian infrastructure. This has severely inconvenienced Ukraine, but demonstrably has not changed the course of the war. What was defined by making the same mistakes repeatedly ?.
It will be interesting to review this thread in 3 months, 6 months and a year.
None of the current speculative posters (myself included) are party to the UKR General Staff information and planning. What we do know is that when they were ready they were able to mount a manoeuvre that took a major slice of the Kharkiv region, and later all the Kherson region on the right bank of the Dnieper river, in each case in a few days.
Russian planning has not changed since day 1. - throw waves of cannon fodder at well placed defences, and attack civilian infrastructure. This has severely inconvenienced Ukraine, but demonstrably has not changed the course of the war. What was defined by making the same mistakes repeatedly ?.
It will be interesting to review this thread in 3 months, 6 months and a year.
Russian planning has not changed since day 1. - throw waves of cannon fodder at well placed defences, and attack civilian infrastructure. This has severely inconvenienced Ukraine, but demonstrably has not changed the course of the war. What was defined by making the same mistakes repeatedly ?.
It will be interesting to review this thread in 3 months, 6 months and a year.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Russia is reported to be considering forcing soldiers who are refusing to fight to serve in penal-style battalions under the command of the Wagner Group, which is desperate for new blood to replace its calamitous losses in the fighting in eastern Ukraine.