Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Re conscripts serving abroad - It would appear that many were in Belarus for the 'exercises'. In any event, Putin apparently doesn't consider Ukraine to be a foreign country so would have few legal qualms about sending conscripts to be cannon fodder there.
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According to my friend in Kherson, the airfield was attacked again by UAF last night, it is not all about twitter videos...
"rus brought abt 6-7 helicopters again
and again were f.. hard ...seems, they stuck in the time loop and made same mistakes on the same place
rus helicopters were dead after"
As for the city they are not allowing much food in, and making a LOT of arrests.
"rus brought abt 6-7 helicopters again
and again were f.. hard ...seems, they stuck in the time loop and made same mistakes on the same place
rus helicopters were dead after"
As for the city they are not allowing much food in, and making a LOT of arrests.
Well, given the large numbers involved - and the new class arriving - one would expect that normally there would be lots of preparations involved in for the new arrivals. It seems to me that this is another big problem for Putin. If the conscripts aren't sent home, then big public uproar and everyone starts asking " Is it true what they say about Ukraine " ? On the other hand , if they do send them home, then there will be tens of thousands of young men spread over the whole country who have been there, who are eye-witnesses to what has been happening and will be believed. In that case the mothers of the new conscript class will make their feeling known. A lose-lose position for Putin if Ukraine continues to hold on.
EDIT: I have just found the following which presumably backs up the idea of the presumed "blitzkrieg victory " being made just six days before the invasion, therefore expecting everything to be back to normal for the new conscript arrivals.
"The Russian Armed Forces conscript men semi-annually, with the fall draft lasting from October 1 until December 31 and the spring draft running from April 1 until July 15.[3] In 2022, the Kremlin announced the spring draft early on February 18"
EDIT: I have just found the following which presumably backs up the idea of the presumed "blitzkrieg victory " being made just six days before the invasion, therefore expecting everything to be back to normal for the new conscript arrivals.
"The Russian Armed Forces conscript men semi-annually, with the fall draft lasting from October 1 until December 31 and the spring draft running from April 1 until July 15.[3] In 2022, the Kremlin announced the spring draft early on February 18"
It is actually against Russian law for conscripts to serve in a foreign country.
Maybe there are some in UKraine :P , but the media often points out a lot of the mediocre performance of russian military is down to conscripts. If they are obeying their law , there are no conscripts and the mediocre performance is down to main force units.
Maybe there are some in UKraine :P , but the media often points out a lot of the mediocre performance of russian military is down to conscripts. If they are obeying their law , there are no conscripts and the mediocre performance is down to main force units.
Russia Confirms It Is Using Hypersonic Missiles In Ukraine
zerohedgedotcom/military/russia-says-hypersonic-kinzhal-missile-destroyed-ukrainian-weapons-bunkerRussia said it fired a hypersonic aero-ballistic air-to-ground missile for the first time in the three-week invasion of Ukraine, destroying a weapons bunker in the southwestern region of the country, according to Bloomberg.
Russian Ministry of Defense spokesman Igor Konashenkov told a daily briefing that the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (also known as "dagger") hypersonic missile struck an underground warehouse containing rockets and ammunition in the village of Deliatyn in the Ivano-Frankivsk region on Friday.
Ukraine didn't report any Russian attack on the military facility overnight and did not immediately comment on Russia's claims. There is also no mention of explosions on social media, though hitting a "big underground" ammunition storage would be loud.
If the Kinzhal was indeed used, it would be first such use of a hypersonic missile - it travels at Mach 10 speeds (or about 7,672 mph) in an unpredictable flight path, making it near impossible for the most advanced missile defense shields to shoot down.
Unpredictable flight path at Mach 10??
The amount of lead you need to intercept anything doing Mach 10 means that even a small change of track makes an intercept unviable. To put it in context Mach 10 (these things are almost always quoted against sea level Mach for some reason) puts you at around 2 miles a second. If you apply the 1 in 60 rule to that for cross track range due to change of track it gets eye watering pretty quickly.
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Reports and counter claims that parts of the Black Sea by either side has been mined and disturbingly they are drifting.
that appears to be Romanian waters as well.
On drifting mines in the Black Sea, here are the Turkish and the NAVAREA 3 NAVWARNs issued. These does NOT say that the mines in question are Ukrainian.
that appears to be Romanian waters as well.
There are also clips of a mine washing ashore in Odessa and detonating.
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Confirmed losses etc
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html
Russia - 1582, of which: destroyed: 748, damaged: 27, abandoned: 224, captured: 582
Tanks (251, of which destroyed: 100, damaged: 4, abandoned: 41, captured: 106)
Ukraine - 388, of which: destroyed: 153, damaged: 5, abandoned: 49, captured: 181
Tanks (67, of which destroyed: 23, abandoned: 11, captured: 31)
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html
Russia Confirms It Is Using Hypersonic Missiles In Ukraine
zerohedgedotcom/military/russia-says-hypersonic-kinzhal-missile-destroyed-ukrainian-weapons-bunkerRussia said it fired a hypersonic aero-ballistic air-to-ground missile for the first time in the three-week invasion of Ukraine, destroying a weapons bunker in the southwestern region of the country, according to Bloomberg.
Russian Ministry of Defense spokesman Igor Konashenkov told a daily briefing that the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (also known as "dagger") hypersonic missile struck an underground warehouse containing rockets and ammunition in the village of Deliatyn in the Ivano-Frankivsk region on Friday.
Ukraine didn't report any Russian attack on the military facility overnight and did not immediately comment on Russia's claims. There is also no mention of explosions on social media, though hitting a "big underground" ammunition storage would be loud.
If the Kinzhal was indeed used, it would be first such use of a hypersonic missile - it travels at Mach 10 speeds (or about 7,672 mph) in an unpredictable flight path, making it near impossible for the most advanced missile defense shields to shoot down.
Unpredictable flight path at Mach 10??
Several Ukrainian sources reporting another Russian Commander has been killed:
"Ukrainian fighters eliminated another Russian commander - Deputy Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Captain First Rank Andriy Paliy. This was announced in his blog by his acquaintance, the president of the consulting group "Assistance" Konstantin Tsarenko. Where and under what circumstances he died in the castle fleet is not reported."
"Ukrainian fighters eliminated another Russian commander - Deputy Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Captain First Rank Andriy Paliy. This was announced in his blog by his acquaintance, the president of the consulting group "Assistance" Konstantin Tsarenko. Where and under what circumstances he died in the castle fleet is not reported."
Does not the performance of the Russian military in this conflict indicate that NATO is if anything spending too much on defense?
If Russia's military cannot implement an effective attack after several months of preparation, does that not show the threat has been vastly overstated?
If Russia's military cannot implement an effective attack after several months of preparation, does that not show the threat has been vastly overstated?
Does not the performance of the Russian military in this conflict indicate that NATO is if anything spending too much on defense?
If Russia's military cannot implement an effective attack after several months of preparation, does that not show the threat has been vastly overstated?
If Russia's military cannot implement an effective attack after several months of preparation, does that not show the threat has been vastly overstated?
NATO as a defensive alliance would have no role to deter Putin in the Ukraine.
Also, Putin cannot have been surprised by Ukrainian resistance. The fighting in the Donbas has been going on since 2014 and the Ukrainian forces have been holding their ground despite clear Russian involvement.
Fair and valid points. I think if NATO in 2014 had shown a stronger front,, then Putin may have thought twice about invading Ukraine. As it is, he thought there was no way NATO could oppose him after the Crimean response, and that the political will and military capability to oppose him was not there.
And quite a bit of doubt as to where, when etc.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...use-in-ukraine
Suggestions that it is simply an airdropped Iskander-M.
And quite a bit of doubt as to where, when etc.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...use-in-ukraine
And quite a bit of doubt as to where, when etc.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...use-in-ukraine
As for earlier posts about russian capability.
We were taught that "if it all kicked off, the BAOR would slow tbe soviet progress by a day or two - at best - and they could be in Paris within a week".
Oh how times have changed. Hindsight is wonderful and I appreciate it is poor form to underestimate a potential enemy, but it does seem that overestimating one is just as bad.
Did you the the update to that war zone link? Nowhere near where claimed by the Russians and appears to be a farm in E Ukraine rather than an arms depot........
Who put the 'hype' in hypersonic? You did Vlad...........
Who put the 'hype' in hypersonic? You did Vlad...........
Fair and valid points. I think if NATO in 2014 had shown a stronger front,, then Putin may have thought twice about invading Ukraine. As it is, he thought there was no way NATO could oppose him after the Crimean response, and that the political will and military capability to oppose him was not there.
NATO is not fighting against Russian Armed Forces.
He underestimated surely the poltical will and unity which he now encounters. He did not underestimate Military capability of NATO. He is very well aware of that. That is why he is hinting so often at his Nukes.
He did underestimate the Ukrainian Military though (and very probably overestimated his own - surely by their size and capability being overhyped by his entourage in his echo- chamber because that is what he wants to hear and if you want it clearly enough wou will get it).
He must know that in his current position his Air Force would not last longer than a few days. And then it will be tin- plinking. Tanks being wiped out by the hundreds per day. Expecially since they are confined to being on Roads due to the Mud. He has put his conventional troops in the most prone position you could possibly conceive. Half his troops laid belly up directly in front of NATO. That's for sure why he is so nervous.
Last edited by henra; 20th Mar 2022 at 12:45.
Does not the performance of the Russian military in this conflict indicate that NATO is if anything spending too much on defense?
If Russia's military cannot implement an effective attack after several months of preparation, does that not show the threat has been vastly overstated?
If Russia's military cannot implement an effective attack after several months of preparation, does that not show the threat has been vastly overstated?
On that basis if we had a £100 billion uplift as the Germans have announced, there would be no RAF left at all!