Is Ukraine about to have a war?
I think that this will be protracted, and the longer it continues the worse the outcome will be for Vlad, and of course the Ukrainians. Russia with a crippled economy, degraded and demoralised military will struggle to deal with insurgents. Rumours of him pulling the plug on global internet access if it indeed happens will not go down well with the millennials when they find out.
There is the potential for major civil unrest in his beloved Motherland, and an ensuing coup cannot be discounted. Which ever way this plays out they need to be brought to their knees and kept there for a very long time, with all territories returned to Ukraine.
There is the potential for major civil unrest in his beloved Motherland, and an ensuing coup cannot be discounted. Which ever way this plays out they need to be brought to their knees and kept there for a very long time, with all territories returned to Ukraine.
I am not sure how EU membership works (I assume any one member can veto a prospective member, but I'd need to look that up) but I know for sure that any NATO nation can veto the entrance of a prospective NATO nation. (Granted, there's plenty of back door/smoke filled rooms deal working and incentivizing that goes on).
I was (unfortunately, it turns out) optimistic about "The West" and Russia continuing the thaw that began when the Wall came down. Between the partnership for Peace initiatives, joint ops in Northern Bosnia, and a host of other confidence building measures the beginning steps were made.
The "what-could-have-beens" are legion, but that's water under the bridge.
I'd still hope for a future where Russia is in the EU rather than not, although I have no idea how the folks in Brussels and Europe's capitals would view such a future. Between Brexit and the mess that the currency union has created in places like Greece and Italy, I wonder if the EU has peaked and doesn't know it yet. Time will tell.
If Mariupol turns into Vlad's Stalingrad (which means the Rest of the World keeps feeding Ukraine arms and other materiel) and Kiev stays out of his hands, at some point he hits operational fatigue and sit down to peace talks, and then the lines on the map get drawn again. But he'll keep at least some of what he's taken, for sure in the south. I'll take that to Vegas with a fifty on the line.
That old saw about "possession is nine tenths of the law" comes to mind. I remember how my dad used to describe typical Soviet negotiating positions: "what's mine is mine, what's yours is negotiable".
I am still pondering: are those two nuclear plants that they have possession of bargaining chips, or something else?
I was (unfortunately, it turns out) optimistic about "The West" and Russia continuing the thaw that began when the Wall came down. Between the partnership for Peace initiatives, joint ops in Northern Bosnia, and a host of other confidence building measures the beginning steps were made.
The "what-could-have-beens" are legion, but that's water under the bridge.
I'd still hope for a future where Russia is in the EU rather than not, although I have no idea how the folks in Brussels and Europe's capitals would view such a future. Between Brexit and the mess that the currency union has created in places like Greece and Italy, I wonder if the EU has peaked and doesn't know it yet. Time will tell.
- alas I don't think there is any prospect of Russia giving up any territory gained, assuming they can "freeze" the conflict at a point which suits (a big if, assuming Ukraine keeps on fighting). Any attack on captured territory would therefore be viewed as an attack on Russia itself and would likely be met with major retaliation (nukes).
That old saw about "possession is nine tenths of the law" comes to mind. I remember how my dad used to describe typical Soviet negotiating positions: "what's mine is mine, what's yours is negotiable".
I am still pondering: are those two nuclear plants that they have possession of bargaining chips, or something else?
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 7th Mar 2022 at 20:25.
Contrary view to other posters - alas I don't think there is any prospect of Russia giving up any territory gained, assuming they can "freeze" the conflict at a point which suits (a big if, assuming Ukraine keeps on fighting). Any attack on captured territory would therefore be viewed as an attack on Russia itself and would likely be met with major retaliation (nukes).
The question for me is how the populace in the captured cities will likely respond to living under Russian occupation, especially given Russia's economic travails. Major - and widespread - unrest, could place a major drain on its military resources and morale.
The question for me is how the populace in the captured cities will likely respond to living under Russian occupation, especially given Russia's economic travails. Major - and widespread - unrest, could place a major drain on its military resources and morale.
I’m glad for the all the aid that the US, NATO and EU are giving Ukraine and hope the flow never ends until all Russian forces have vacated every square inch of Ukraine.
Don't bet the rent money on that, is what I am suggesting.
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Given that Russia is on the UN Security Council, and no UNSC resolution will pass to that effect, I honestly don't see him withdrawing from the two areas (Luchansk and Donetsk) whose declaration was the trigger (obviously planned ahead of time) for Russian tanks to roll.
Don't bet the rent money on that, is what I am suggesting.
Don't bet the rent money on that, is what I am suggesting.
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Both in the UN and cough, cough, his Country…
The lower echelon Russian leadership will have the clearest view of how this assault is going at battlefronts and on the homefront. They are not that stupid that they will allow this one-man-folly to destroy the Motherland.
Give it a few more days and we will learn of the sad death of the "hero" Putin, who finally succumbed to the illness that had affected his judgement.
General Shotisblokov appointed temporary command and orders a complete cessation of hostilities as the Motherland enters a period of mourning. They will then arrange "peace talks" and graduated withdrawal.
There will be some give and take, and some assurances and sanctions slowly and cautiously lifted.
Other than all out MAD, I see this as a less frightening way out.
We can only hope.
Give it a few more days and we will learn of the sad death of the "hero" Putin, who finally succumbed to the illness that had affected his judgement.
General Shotisblokov appointed temporary command and orders a complete cessation of hostilities as the Motherland enters a period of mourning. They will then arrange "peace talks" and graduated withdrawal.
There will be some give and take, and some assurances and sanctions slowly and cautiously lifted.
Other than all out MAD, I see this as a less frightening way out.
We can only hope.
Last edited by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY; 7th Mar 2022 at 21:22.
Another dead Major General
Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, who took part in the second Chechen war, the war in Syria and the annexation of Crimea, was killed in battles near Kharkiv.
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It must be good for promotion, though that might be a bad thing in Russia.
One should feel sad at the death of another human being, but I don’t, people that target women, children and male civilians lost the right in my eyes to call themselves human beings.
One should feel sad at the death of another human being, but I don’t, people that target women, children and male civilians lost the right in my eyes to call themselves human beings.
Last edited by NutLoose; 7th Mar 2022 at 21:56. Reason: Removed wiki quote to wrong person
Tabs please !
There's a heck of a lot of high ranking Russian commanders getting shot. I wonder if it happens within 30 minutes of their performance review ?
The lower echelon Russian leadership will have the clearest view of how this assault is going at battlefronts and on the homefront. They are not that stupid that they will allow this one-man-folly to destroy the Motherland.
Give it a few more days and we will learn of the sad death of the "hero" Putin, who finally succumbed to the illness that had affected his judgement.
General Shotisblokov appointed temporary command and orders a complete cessation of hostilities as the Motherland enters a period of mourning. They will then arrange "peace talks" and graduated withdrawal.
There will be some give and take, and some assurances and sanctions slowly and cautiously lifted.
Other than all out MAD, I see this as a less frightening way out.
We can only hope.
Give it a few more days and we will learn of the sad death of the "hero" Putin, who finally succumbed to the illness that had affected his judgement.
General Shotisblokov appointed temporary command and orders a complete cessation of hostilities as the Motherland enters a period of mourning. They will then arrange "peace talks" and graduated withdrawal.
There will be some give and take, and some assurances and sanctions slowly and cautiously lifted.
Other than all out MAD, I see this as a less frightening way out.
We can only hope.
Oodles of exposure and experience to a young intelligent audience. Worth a peek.
David Starkey explains why 'Putin has a stranglehold on the west thanks to Merkel' (youtube). He has harsh words to say, but I think that he is right.
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What, two of them with a silly name?
I
I'd still hope for a future where Russia is in the EU rather than not, although I have no idea how the folks in Brussels and Europe's capitals would view such a future. Between Brexit and the mess that the currency union has created in places like Greece and Italy, I wonder if the EU has peaked and doesn't know it yet. Time will tell
e?
I'd still hope for a future where Russia is in the EU rather than not, although I have no idea how the folks in Brussels and Europe's capitals would view such a future. Between Brexit and the mess that the currency union has created in places like Greece and Italy, I wonder if the EU has peaked and doesn't know it yet. Time will tell
e?
"Mildly" Eccentric Stardriver
There is the potential for major civil unrest in his beloved Motherland, and an ensuing coup cannot be discounted. Which ever way this plays out they need to be brought to their knees and kept there for a very long time,
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I did wonder why he would be there. Well it might be hitting home to Gerasimov senior.
Given that Russia is on the UN Security Council, and no UNSC resolution will pass to that effect, I honestly don't see him withdrawing from the two areas (Luchansk and Donetsk) whose declaration was the trigger (obviously planned ahead of time) for Russian tanks to roll.
Don't bet the rent money on that, is what I am suggesting.
Don't bet the rent money on that, is what I am suggesting.
Russian government spokesman , Alexander Novak, makes open threat on Russian TV to cut gas supplies to Germany through NordStream 1;
"As a reciprocal measure, we have the absolute right to embargo the gas flowing through Nord Stream 1, which is currently running at 100% " It's not specifically mentioned, but this seems to be retaliation for Nord Stream 2 being embargoed;
Putin also repeats that there are no conscripts or reservists being used in Ukraine nor will there be. He also says that there will be no call up of reservists.
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._52139887.html
"As a reciprocal measure, we have the absolute right to embargo the gas flowing through Nord Stream 1, which is currently running at 100% " It's not specifically mentioned, but this seems to be retaliation for Nord Stream 2 being embargoed;
Putin also repeats that there are no conscripts or reservists being used in Ukraine nor will there be. He also says that there will be no call up of reservists.
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._52139887.html