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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 1st Feb 2022, 08:16
  #761 (permalink)  

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Asturias56. Have you people still not got the idea? NATO is a DEFENSIVE treaty. The geopolitics you suggest are not part of its remit.
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Old 1st Feb 2022, 11:57
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Just out, Russia has sent out a note to Finland

HELSINKI, February 1./TASS/. The Russian Embassy has delivered a message to the Finnish Foreign Ministry from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov regarding security guarantees, the diplomatic mission reported on Tuesday.

"The embassy has handed over the respective letter to the foreign minister of Finland. We are waiting for the reaction from the Finnish side," it said.

On January 30, Lavrov told the Voskresnoye Vremya (Sunday Time) program on Channel One that Russia was sending messages to NATO and the OSCE with a request to explain whether they intend to comply with the key security commitments "not to strengthen their security at the expense of the security of others".

https://tass.com/politics/1395817

This note has been confirmed by Finnish foreign ministry.

This has a startling remembrance with the Soviet behaviour up until the collapse of Soviet Union.
The guys in Kremlin really are a product of their era.
Wish the delivery of F35's could be speedier than planned.
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Old 1st Feb 2022, 12:21
  #763 (permalink)  
 
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Call me old fashioned, but isn't that exactly what they are doing themselves by deploying troops into Belarus?
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Old 1st Feb 2022, 15:38
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Originally Posted by Herod
Asturias56. Have you people still not got the idea? NATO is a DEFENSIVE treaty. The geopolitics you suggest are not part of its remit.
That's a good one
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Old 1st Feb 2022, 15:42
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Same as Mr Putin - only defensive actions contemplated of course...................
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Old 1st Feb 2022, 22:46
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Russian Dagger by Virgin Cowles

Reviewed here

This book describes the duplicity, mendacity and incompetence of Imperial Russia and its objectives in attempting to expand its empire in the 19th century and early 20th century resulting in WW1. The parallels with today are remarkable and chilling including fake news, misinformation propaganda etc...
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Old 2nd Feb 2022, 05:34
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Putin has publicly stated that Crimea is Russias soil and he is worrying that if Ukraine joins NATO and attacks Crimea, Russia would have to fight NATO.
First mistake: Crimea is part of Ukraine, not Russia. How could they venture an attack on their own soil?
Second mistake: NATO is a defence organization. If a NATO member starts a war with a non-NATO country, NATO is not obliged to assist.
How incredibly stupid does Putin think his own people are?

MOSCOW, February 1. /TASS/.

No one in the West has ever thought that if Ukraine is admitted to NATO and ventures an attack on Crimea, Russia will have to be at war with the alliance, Russian President Vladimir Putin said."[Crimea] is Russia’s sovereign territory. The matter is closed for us in this sense. Let us imagine that Ukraine is a NATO member and ventures such a combat operation. Are we supposed to be at war with NATO? Well, has anyone even given a thought to it? It looks like no one has," he said.

https://tass.com/politics/1396273

Last edited by Beamr; 2nd Feb 2022 at 06:00.
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Old 2nd Feb 2022, 07:15
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WAAAA,

Putin: "I'm always misunderstood: misunderstood about Crimea, misunderstood about Ukraine, misunderstood about NATO....

Yea right, the West once thought we were misunderstanding Russia but now we fully understand how misunderstandings are used.

Once bitten,

IG
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Old 2nd Feb 2022, 20:46
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
If you had sat on the NATO committees that were the worst part of my job you would agree that France could move a lot closer to NATO. Or OTAN as they preferred it.
We had a French {spy} *cough* {liaison officer} on our staff (mid to late 90's) and I am most familiar with some of the curious modes of French OTAN participation.
Just out of curiosity, when were you on the committees?
Did you get funding for ACCS approved?
It isn't just the French who might get a bit stubborn on any given NATO issue. Each of the 16 nations (then, about 30 now) has certain hot button issues that they'll use their veto on.
(And of course the Greeks and Turks were infamous in our HQ for their consistent "finger in the eye" approaches to things as innocuous as an annual exercise)
Originally Posted by Maggie Island
Here’s a decent write up on the French/Euro stance by a former NATO Supreme Commander of Europe. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...9NAs-Sc6jujH48
I served under him (the author) for a brief time, back before he was an admiral.
Sharp, professional, all around a most excellent naval officer.
Article makes sense. (As does Macron's initiative, if one puts one's self in French shoes)
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Old 2nd Feb 2022, 20:55
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Originally Posted by beardy
Russian Dagger by Virgin Cowles
Reviewed here
Was she indeed a spinster? The name in the link is Virginia Cowles.
(PS: the review hardly recommends this book to the serious student of political history, but maybe it's worth a few bucks at second hand books)
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Old 3rd Feb 2022, 11:28
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Old 4th Feb 2022, 08:41
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Old 4th Feb 2022, 11:19
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Question is, is all of this activity normal? There's no indication how many intercepts they typically do on a daily/weekly basis.

Re the other thread, I'm beginning to think Vlad may have bottled it, him possibly being lent on by his fellow billionaires who are afraid of the impact of sanctions, also the challenge of achieving something meaningful in Ukraine without huge casualties and public outcry at home.

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Old 5th Feb 2022, 10:43
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Question is, is all of this activity normal? There's no indication how many intercepts they typically do on a daily/weekly basis.

Re the other thread, I'm beginning to think Vlad may have bottled it, him possibly being lent on by his fellow billionaires who are afraid of the impact of sanctions, also the challenge of achieving something meaningful in Ukraine without huge casualties and public outcry at home.
Data about QRA responses to russian aircraft is easily findable at least for 2013-2019. I cannot post links but 7 or 8 times a year seems the normal.
More generally no one I know in Ukraine believes it is more than bluster. And No one I know In Russia actually cares, despite Pravda foaming at the mouth - latest article declaring Moscow bomb shelters are ready for use.
Vlad thinks everyone should have the same 1980s dinosaur head as him , and that he can use it to manipulate domestic issues, the world moved on, while russian citizenss may feel war is a possibility, for the most part it would be entirely unpalatable , at least to russians under the age of 40.
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Old 5th Feb 2022, 13:06
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I see Billy Nomates is having a Kip at the Olympics.





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Old 5th Feb 2022, 13:24
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Sky update, Russian field hospital believed to have been built and blood supplies moved into the area.

https://news.sky.com/story/the-final...raine-12533199
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Old 5th Feb 2022, 21:41
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I see Billy Nomates is having a Kip at the Olympics.


Said kip coincided with the Ukraine team marching in!
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Old 6th Feb 2022, 06:17
  #778 (permalink)  
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Old 6th Feb 2022, 06:22
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Old 6th Feb 2022, 09:00
  #780 (permalink)  

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It seems Putin and Xi, leaders of two "democratic" countries, have signed a mutual defence pact. Echos perhaps of the Molotov/Ribbentrop pact? Operation Barbarossa comes to mind.
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