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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 2nd Mar 2022, 11:04
  #2181 (permalink)  

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This is going to be a primarily a ground war. In this respect, the fact those EU countries decided not to supply those aircraft is probably now moot.
Those countries never decided or agreed to any such thing in the first place, upon closer inspections.

There has been some praise about the EU standing together, but the look under the hood is not really nice.

The individual countries have indeed committed and delivered, in some cases at least, a noble and survival critical response. Bravo.

That needs to be viewed separately from the EU leadership who tried to sieze the marketing potential afterwards. With a baffling announcement of the monetary value and fighter jets from countries even on Ukrainian borderline who had not been consulted.
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The numbers were probably downloaded from Wikipedia, as the hardware is mostly cannibalised and unflyable, remaining single/double units being maintained by Russian expert personnel in-situ.

Don't forget Mrs. Leyen was the DE Minister of Defundce, who got effectively kicked out the
national executive for causing mayhem, into the EU bodies.

First the SWIFT 'mother of all sanctions' could not cutoff Russia because Germany was 'calculating the effect on us', then after the agreement it was delayed almost a week because the list of affected banks was not compiled. Finally, Sberbank is not on it, owned by RF ministry of finance 50+%. The Gazprom's own bank also not cutoff. Not surprised.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01/eu-agrees-to-block-russian-banks-from-swift-sparing-key-firms

No, the EU common bodies deserve exactly the credit to their achievement, which is probably zero.

Unloaded support material is the new boots on the ground. Bravo to those who managed, apparently US did from a large distance, Turkey shut the strait, and China allows open informing on social media.

The European countries are too numerous to list, acting individually... well noticed.

I guess the German 5000 helmets have arrived in the meantime too, did they?
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http://www.cbr.ru/psystem/fin_msg_transfer_system/

​​​​​​Russian State Bank's own cross border system, apart from the usual central Asian connections has banks from Switzerland and Germany. Whoohaa...

Mother of all smokes and mirrors, at best.

Meanwhile, in the EU high chairs:
https://palnws.be/2022/01/frans-timmermans-poetin-bedreigt-oekraine-omdat-hij-aandacht-wil-afleiden-van-klimaatprobleem/

No shortage of unuseful idiots.
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Last edited by FlightDetent; 2nd Mar 2022 at 11:18.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 11:05
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Logged in for a proper catch-up and had to check I hadn't accidentally subscribed to the 1940s " Boy's Own Book of how to stop a convoy - and other scamp-like things".
For every idea suggested, I am sure the Ukraine's will have thought of 20 more.

Not seen this on here before so thought I would post.

https://liveuamap.com/

Tends to be pretty up to date with what is occurring and where. It pulls together info from various sources, often real-time on the ground, and gives the links to those sources. Pretty useful to help build a picture if you are struggling to wade through the dross on other news sites.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 11:20
  #2183 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Truly a sad day
Re. Natasha Perakov. Don't really know, but might appear to be fake. At least one of the alleged photos seems to be from some website selling fake military outfits or something.

Official propaganda (from both sides) is one thing and to be expected, but I'm almost getting more annoyed by made-up BS proliferating through social media, i.e. videos from 2014, video game/DCS stuff, etc.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 11:29
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Imagegear the link does not show but regarding the meetings to broker an end to it all, it is reported the high ranking Russian in the delegation is the Minister of Culture, hardly what one would expect if Russia was serious.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 11:48
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https://www.theglobeandmail.com/worl...kindness-with/

For three decades, one of Europe’s poorest countries has been emptying out: More than a million people have departed Moldova since 1991. They’re still leaving, at a pace of 35,000 a year. Across the country, 100,000 homes stand empty.

Now, Ukrainian refugees are pouring into Moldova – more than 88,000 so far – and its government and companies are scrambling to give them chances to work through acts of charity that coincide with a national need for labour.

The government is sweeping away legal barriers to their employment and opening its classrooms to Ukrainian teachers. Meanwhile, companies are offering jobs as graphic designers, office managers, construction workers, restaurant staff and IT workers.

It’s part of an outpouring of national generosity that has seen Moldovans drive hours to border points to pick up strangers and homeowners offer spare rooms to fleeing families in need of a place to sleep.

“We cannot ignore their hard times,” said Mihaela Lavrov, an office manager at Purcari, the country’s oldest winery, which has allowed people to sleep free of charge in its vineyard chateau – and rented a hotel in another location for extra beds.Welcoming refugees has become such a national effort that traffic accidents and crime rates have fallen by about a fifth in recent days, as Moldovans focus on helping those arriving in their country.

But the tide of people also represents an economic opportunity to bring skills into a country that has struggled to keep its most talented at home. Refugees “should be integrated economically and earn money,” Igor Grosu, president of the Moldova parliament, said in an interview. Moldova has already simplified procedures for Ukrainians to open bank accounts, enroll their children in local schools and access health care.

“If these refugees decide to stay in Moldova they are welcome. That would be a solution for them – and it would help Moldova,” said Veaceslav Ionita, a former member of parliament who is now an expert in public finance at the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives, an independent think tank.

“Because in my opinion, the biggest challenge for Moldova in the next two or three years is it has no workers.”

The country’s burgeoning IT sector, which has been doubling in size every two years, could easily absorb 5,000 people, he said. Five thousand more could quickly find work in automotive manufacturing, another growth industry. Local construction companies have jobs for a further 5,000.

As refugees have arrived, Moldovan companies have acted with great speed to offer jobs to Ukrainians.

In Chisinau, the national Association of Information and Communications Technology Companies has offered free co-working space.

The association’s president, Veaceslav Kunev, said he has fielded dozens of requests for help in finding work. “I’ve created new jobs to help refugees,” he said, adding he has the capacity to open 10 data-entry positions.

Anastasia Nistor, who owns a branding company, has opened an office manager position that could, she says, appeal to a mother who wants to work and still be able to care for children.

Since Ukraine barred military-age men from leaving the country, most refugees are women with young children. Ms. Nistor is a mother of toddlers herself, and “I can bring a lot of toys because my home is full of toys,” she said.

She is also hoping that the refugees arriving in Moldova include a graphic designer, which is someone “we really need.”
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 11:58
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I like that

Not so good.

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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 12:04
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Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker
Indeed.

It's ridiculous how many times within this thread posters have made 'suggestions' that are pretty much exactly what Ukrainian forces have been doing so far.

It's almost as if such tactics are pretty universally understood....
Fine but for some things there are no reasons obvious to people who are aware of tactics and it's reasonable to puzzle " why " ?

Given the small distances involved and the major potential gain, why are the Ukrainians not dispatching small groups/squads to attack soft and valuable targets like fuel -tankers and ammo trucks in the supply column moving towards Kiev ? If they hit tankers at different points along the convoy, this would halt progress, destroy surrounding vehicles ( maybe ), unsettle troops and give them more work in standing patrol/chasing attackers. The attackers would have a good chance of retreating unscathed through the heavily-wooded terrain.

Since this seems to offer major gains at very very low risk, general knowledge of obvious tactics forces one to ask "why " ?
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 12:31
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Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
Logged in for a proper catch-up and had to check I hadn't accidentally subscribed to the 1940s " Boy's Own Book of how to stop a convoy - and other scamp-like things".
For every idea suggested, I am sure the Ukraine's will have thought of 20 more.

Not seen this on here before so thought I would post.

https://liveuamap.com/

Tends to be pretty up to date with what is occurring and where. It pulls together info from various sources, often real-time on the ground, and gives the links to those sources. Pretty useful to help build a picture if you are struggling to wade through the dross on other news sites.

There is a similar crowd sourced effort here:

https://maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor



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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 12:32
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Fine but for some things there are no reasons obvious to people who are aware of tactics and it's reasonable to puzzle " why " ?

Given the small distances involved and the major potential gain, why are the Ukrainians not dispatching small groups/squads to attack soft and valuable targets like fuel -tankers and ammo trucks in the supply column moving towards Kiev ? If they hit tankers at different points along the convoy, this would halt progress, destroy surrounding vehicles ( maybe ), unsettle troops and give them more work in standing patrol/chasing attackers. The attackers would have a good chance of retreating unscathed through the heavily-wooded terrain.

Since this seems to offer major gains at very very low risk, general knowledge of obvious tactics forces one to ask "why " ?
Maybe they calculate that the fuel bowsers are already empty? The mobile Anti-Air is now static. The mobile artillery is now static. The mobile troop carriers are now static. If they are going nowhere, then there really is no hurry to do anything with them, in fact, leaving them alone may well have exacerbated the invader's problems. How long have they been sat in that queue? How many bowsers will it take to keep a convoy that size running? How are the troops keeping warm (sat snuggly in their vehicles because no one is attacking them) ? The plan may well have been to drive in unopposed and fill up at the nearest gas station along the way. oops. As was mentioned much earlier in the thread : "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake". (Credit -snyggapa )

What is interesting to see from various videos around the bazaars are the large number of vehicles stranded with flat tyres. Direct action by saboteurs, self-inflicted so as not to be able to advance, anti-tyre traps, or simply rotten and decrepit rubber that has passed its use-by date.

Last edited by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY; 2nd Mar 2022 at 13:01.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 12:33
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Question for those who may have some more insight, although I don't expect much:

What is openly known about the disposition of medium- to long-range GBAD in Belarus?

According to some news articles, two Russian S-400 / SA-21 battalions (?) were deployed to Belarus for "exercises" prior to the invasion. There are also reports suggesting that at least one unit is operating somewhere in (southern?) Belarus in support of the invasion.

Also - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ts-2022-03-01/

Belarusian state media (belta.by, appears to be down right now) previously reported that Belarus and Russia had discussed additional deployments of Russian S-400s to the western part of the country.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 12:38
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I wonder if Putin has beefed up his security detail. Failing despots seem to be vulnerable to high velocity lead poisoning….
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 12:47
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It's usually the security detail wot does it
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 12:49
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(The latter part of a post that got moved but needs to be here.)

A comment made on Japanese news today regarding Ukrainian requests to the Chinese for mediation. The two sides know each other quite well as the Liaoning, the first Chinese aircraft carrier, came from the Ukraine.

Perhaps they could ask for it back.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 12:54
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Flight Detent, you make important points. I totally agree.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 13:06
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Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever
I wonder if Putin has beefed up his security detail. Failing despots seem to be vulnerable to high velocity lead poisoning….
I did wonder if that is why when he was talking to his Military "advisors" they were sitting down the other end of a very long table, so if they did decide to take a pot shot he could duck out of the way or out of a side door, though I bet they are made to surrender any arms before being allowed in the room.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 13:10
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What is interesting to see from various videos around the bazaars are the large number of vehicles stranded with flat tyres. Direct action by saboteurs, self-inflicted so as not to be able to advance, anti-tyre traps, or simply rotten and decrepit rubber that has passed its use-by date.
There is a link on Twitter somewhere where they are looking at captured Russian rations and they are all use by 2015 lol, brought back memories of the Spangles? in our compo in the 80's that were welded to their wrappers.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 13:23
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
Horse-trading already taken place at the talks viz-a-viz the west/east carve-up of the country ? ,+/- Interested foreign third parties staying the Ukranians hand ?

The troops have already been on exercise for a month and morale can't be the best.

Biden says, at end of last night's State of the Union. speech, "May god protect our troops " ?
What's your source for the carve-up information ? You seem to be alone in that.

"The troops have already been on exercise for a month and morale can't be the best." That's the Russians, so getting their convoy shot up would make things significantly worse for them.

Nope- nothing convincing there. Anybody else help ?
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 13:31
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Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
? The mobile Anti-Air is now static. The mobile artillery is now static. The mobile troop carriers are now static. If they are going nowhere, then there really is no hurry to do anything with them, in fact, leaving them alone may well have exacerbated the invader's problems. How long have they been sat in that queue? How many bowsers will it take to keep a convoy that size running? How are the troops keeping warm (sat snuggly in their vehicles because no one is attacking them) ? .
Examining that premise, it seems you are looking at the certain ( very small in total terms ) gain of fuel and rations used, against the potentially huge gain of destroying lots of strategic equipment, which could disappear under some circumstances ( bridges repaired, increased protective patrolling ) and further severely disrupting any possibility of advancing. For me that's a terrible evaluation of risk/return.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 13:34
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Russia May Use Antiquated An-2 Biplanes

Russia May Use Antiquated An-2 Biplanes to 'Draw Out' Ukrainian Air Defenses - The Aviationist

Russia May Use Antiquated An-2 Biplanes to ‘Draw Out’ Ukrainian Air Defenses

Satellite Photos Show Cold War Era Biplanes on Seshcha Airbase Near Ukrainian Border.

In a bizarre move that seems more at home in a Tom Clancy novel, Russia may be preparing to use antiquated Antonov An-2 biplanes, flying unmanned or as drones by remote control, in an effort to draw out Ukrainian air defenses and establish an electronic “order of battle” in preparation for a push into Kyiv.

Satellite photos taken between Feb. 28 and leading up to the past 24 hours show a significant number of Antonov An-2 single-engine biplanes, NATO reporting name “Colt”, at Seshcha Air Base in Dubrovka, Russia. The base is located near the eastern Ukrainian border and was used as a Tu-16 strategic bomber base during the Cold War.

Intelligence analysis provided by Maxar, a private satellite imagery and intelligence think tank company, in their March Situation Report said that:

“Russia has deployed 42 An-2 “Colt” biplanes to Seshcha Airbase in Western Russia. Defense blogger Dylan Malyasov noted in a February 2022 article that Russia had been recently testing An-2 flight formations near the Ukrainian border. The An-2s have likely been converted to drones and could be used as decoys to simulate helicopter or UAV formations to draw out Ukraine’s air defenses. Malyasov note that Azerbaijan employed this strategy against Armenia with great success in the 2020 conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Electronic warfare aircraft have also been deployed to Seshcha, joing the combat aircraft deployed in mid-February.”
Satellite reconnaissance photo of Russian Antonov An-2 biplanes parked on a taxiway at Seshcha Airbase in Russia just across the Ukrainian border. (Photo: from MAXAR Satellite Imaging). In the box, the post by Defense Blogger Dylan Malyasov with a video supposedly showing testing of An-2 flight formations near the Ukrainian border.The report went on to say that, “Additional combat aircraft have been deployed to Shatalovo Airbase in western Russia [just north of Seshcha- ed], which is showing a 3X increase in numbers since early February.”

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio also alluded to the possible conversion of An-2 to drones, citing the same numbers included in Maxar report.


The old but still capable Antonov An-2 biplane is well suited to this mission because of its large radar signature and low-speed flight characteristics combined with low cost (read: “expendable”). The An-2, as old as it is in both technology and appearance, is a cost-effective alternative to modern remotely piloted airframes like Russia’s recently tested Inokhodets-RU unmanned aerial vehicle or the older KRONSTADT ORION-E remotely piloted aircraft.

Actually, it’s not even clear how the An-2 drones would be operated by the Russians (provided that the conversion is confirmed): for instance, in the Nagorno-Karabakh theatre, the Azerbaijani biplanes were not really drones (i.e. remotely piloted), but purely unmanned, according to the reports: the pilot took off normally, pointed the aircraft at Armenian positions and then locked the aircraft’s controls using belts. After that the pilot bailed out to safety letting the unmanned plane fly directly towards Armenian units, forcing the enemy troops to open fire thus disclosing their positions.

Anyway, it looks like, as the next round in this dreadful war continues, large numbers of unmanned biplanes over three quarters of a century old might be used in the opening round of an offensive on Ukraine’s capital.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 13:54
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Actually, it’s not even clear how the An-2 drones would be operated by the Russians (provided that the conversion is confirmed): for instance, in the Nagorno-Karabakh theatre, the Azerbaijani biplanes were not really drones (i.e. remotely piloted), but purely unmanned, according to the reports: the pilot took off normally, pointed the aircraft at Armenian positions and then locked the aircraft’s controls using belts. After that the pilot bailed out to safety letting the unmanned plane fly directly towards Armenian units, forcing the enemy troops to open fire thus disclosing their positions.
I recall Azerbaijan tried this once or twice then gave up. Silly idea really - smacks of desperation on the part of the Russians.
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