Originally Posted by
ORAC
I'm late reading this, but came here to agree with the comment earlier from deadpan about it seeming to be an incomplete analysis. It isn't just the possible effect of MANPADS which Bronk omits: it's GBAD, full stop. In an earlier article
(here) he sets out Ukrainian ORBAT and some of the constraints upon it, but perhaps it has been more potent (or more of a deterrent) than expected? You'd have thought the latest article would at least have addressed the possibility. Another might be simply that the RFAF wants to minimise exposure to NATO of any countermeasures or tactics against SAMs it knows well, although I guess they would care less about that as time goes by if progress remains faltering.