“When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back.”….

“Russian progress around Severdonetsk results largely from the fact that Moscow has concentrated forces, equipment, and materiel drawn from all other axes on this one objective. Russian troops have been unable to make progress on any other axes for weeks and have largely not even tried to do so. Ukrainian defenders have inflicted fearful casualties on the Russian attackers around Severodonetsk even so. Moscow will not be able to recoup large amounts of effective combat power even if it seizes Severdonetsk, because it is expending that combat power frivolously on taking the city.”…

“The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far.”….

“Russian morale, already low, may drop further if such behavior is widespread and continues. If Russian troops stuck on secondary axes lose their will to fight as the Battle for Severdonetsk consumes much of the available Russian offensive combat power, Ukraine may have a chance to launch significant counteroffensives with good prospects for success.”….

I see the Russian Ambassador to UK has told the BBC that Russia will not use tactical nukes. If that is the same line as "Russia will not invade Ukraine", well....

Though, interestingly, the ambassador did make a couple of off-piste references to the "war" in Ukraine, which won't win him any brownie points from the Kremlin.

Worth watching the whole interview here: BBC iPlayer - Sunday Morning - 29/05/2022

That would be in keeping with the old USSR (er Russia trying to be USSR again) doctrine per US Army references... Given the hiding, they have received so far, the Rouge team may be pretty light on reserves, and that would make for a possible decisive outcome IF they can be defeated in place (again). Time to push as much artillery and rocketry as possible into the area, the west needs to ante up or pay dearly in the not too distant future for our parsimony. Letting Russia succeed at genocide would be a disgrace to all those that profess concern yet cared more about their oil 'n gas supplies.

Interesting to note that Russian lawmakers are now talking about the de-Nazification of Poland... How that makes servile appeasement and self-interest acceptable is beyond my pay grade.

:mad:

Things may be really tough around Severodonetsk, but it isn't without severe losses to Russia as well, this could be a hail mary from Pukin, his tactic to shatter the Red army has been highly effective, he is approaching 30% of originally applied forces being killed, and whatever the number of injuries, it is substantial, at least that again (1:1- 1:4.... that's a lot of unhappy little green campers). Apart from lacking trucks and tanks, and IFVs and the suchlike, he is probably starting to get short of wheelchairs and prosthetics for his replacement forces.

Each MBT is 3 crew, APC/IFV is 10-11, trucks are 1-2... etc....

AFV/IFV/MBT loss rates for Team Rouge are back to the great old days, they are pushing hard at whatever they are doing, this is deffo a critical phase, hoping that UF has the capacity to go and hit them on their MSR and put them back into their own turf.

[graphs are of visually confirmed losses, reported by oryx and charted by Tim Rolf of engineered data. (They are conservative values)]

Note that Rouge at EOY 2021 had around 174 BTGs on strength and attacked with 120 BTG's, or around 2/3rds of their combat troops, the rest remain needed in place to ensure harmony within the worker's paradise. The system was rotten to the core, literally, and these BTGs were unlikely to be near normal strength, which is 600-800 troops per BTG, and around 10 MBTs, and around 40 IFV/APC etc... By those measures, Rouge lost at least 50 BTGs worth of MBTs so far, and around 30 BTGs inventory of IFV/APCs. They are apparently now trying to conserve vehicles at the cost of a higher fatality rate, and that is with the constraints that they have a lag in getting replacement troops up and ready to place targets on their chests. Not the time to be giving in on supporting these people.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....17f798345.jpeg
For those interested in metrics and graphs, please open the spoiler.


How will they ever win against people like this.

Sad side to the story is that six or seven farmers have already been killed by mines/abandoned ordnance, others badly injured, and their machinery destroyed -- that is, the machinery the Russians have not stolen.

I read that many farmers in Northern France have modified their tractors by placing sheets of heavy steel underneath as they're still digging up ordinance . . . from the First World War !

Iron Harvest

It seems that the future is becoming clearer. Russia can only advance by concentrating their forces on increasingly smaller fronts, now effectively only a few tens of miles wide. Ukraine can't overcome the significant numerical advantage of the Russian. So far Ukrainian attempts to delimit the battle field have been very successful but they are at the point of diminishing returns. This is a recipe for WW1 style stalemate on the Donbas border.

Sadly I think that despite all the brave talk the Western powers, and especially the US would be quite happy with a stalemate to further diminish Russian power and influence but without the danger of Russia being backed into a corner where Russian precipitate action(s) could spiral out of control. The biggest losers will of course be the Ukrainians

At least force concentration increases the effectiveness of artillery and rocket fire on the RU, if the UA gets enough on site. Concern is the loss of the bridges to the west of the town, that is not helpful for supply or repositioning of forces in either direction. UA needs all the support they can get into that area to avoid some heavy losses. Will our govts act in good faith or be perfidious as we have come to understand. A stalemate is certainly one option, the other is driving Russia back to their territory but that needs the full and timely support of all gifts. Europe has a history of playing politics that ultimately comes back and bites on the butt.

It is depressing the degree to which France, Italy and Germany are all in favour of appeasing Putin, with the latter particaulrly shy in coming forward with arms. Even Greece has subverted potential EU sanctions on transport so that it can continue transporting Russian oil with its tanker fleet. An unwillingness accross the EU to share short-term economic pain for long-term human and economic gain .

I am not sure your last line holds true, particularly as Zelenskyy (quite rightly) is not only looking to the EU for funding to prosecute the war but also substantial funding to rebuild afterwards, plus the costs of hosting all the refugees.

Putting that to one side, EU (& others) sanctions are being undermined by China & India.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....dc9067baf4.jpg

sanctions are not being undermined, the premium the Russians receives from supplying the democracies has been removed. That's all that can be expected.

Which is a big problem since Europe is competing with Chinese and Indian Companies but has very little own O&G (unlike the US who also profits from high O&G prices while at the same time Joe Average suffers at the fuel station or heating his home). India&China are also massively dependant on O&G Imports. In the past that was balanced out by both China/India and Europe paying the same for Energy. Now China/India is having a clear advantage there. If this continues one might have to look into Customs&Taxes towards these states to balance this out.
Knowing the big dependency of big European Corporates of the Chinese market I have a hard time seeing this coming though...
Europe is kind of between a Rock and a hard place there.

Hmm, but unfortunately China and India are importing more O&G than before, not only Europe buying less.

Yeah they might have more tankers heading there, but its a blip in overall scale. To ship to china the amount of crude/refined oil they send via pipelines to europe they would need 500ish Suezmax tankers, running back and forth. Only about 200 suezmax tankiers exist

The Bosphorus is slightly more restrictive on air draft it is 58m vs Suez 68m, but the lack of hulls makes that just another nuisance. Russia presumably has done the maths on the damage to their existing oil fields will be as production rates decline as they have, they could end up locking up their fields to the point that the scientists at least will be slightly happier. Good on Russia taking a hit for the planet.

I think we all saw the link a week or so ago of the proceedings of the UK Defence committee , and how in the main they were grounded in reality.

Now I present to you the words of the RF Defence Comittee deputy chairman , just another fossilized russian alcoholic he sounds like.

I think you miss his point. They are importing more than before, but it is at a considerable discount. I've read India has been buying Russian oil at some 30% below to the going rate. I'm sure the Chinese have negotiated similar deals, knowing full well Russia cannot easily sell it elsewhere.

I think the point is that China & India are significantly increasing their imports (based, as you say, on the discounts) while Europe is trying to reduce theirs. Thus India & China are profiting from the situation in Ukraine.

More mobile heavy artillery for Ukraine.


UK Supplied Wolfhounds in Ukraine, first film?


I wonder if this is part of the UK's loitering munitions we are sending?

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1530993097978654724?cxt=HHwWiMC96Y2Hl78qAAAA

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