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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

GlobalNav 2nd Jun 2022 02:51


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11239197)
Both sides being put through the meat grinder.

See the UKR casualty rates - then remember that Russia is losing between. 3-6 soldiers for every one lost by UKR…

This tremendous loss of life …. It’s no game is it. Freedom is dear.

FlightDetent 2nd Jun 2022 02:59


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11239306)
THE EU needs to get tough with Hungary and look at removing them from it.The EU has the means to punish them financially
​​​​​

I am afraid you don't really see the irony in this.

jolihokistix 2nd Jun 2022 03:43

Ukraine could take out that Kerch Strait Bridge if they thought it necessary and really put their mind to it. Might involve Kamikaze pilots though.

NutLoose 2nd Jun 2022 03:52


Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 11239311)
I am afraid you don't really see the irony in this.


I do, have you seen the request for another 18 billion from the EU to cut off the oil supplies, it’s trying to blackmail the EU who should return the favour.

UK requesting to send US supplied rocket systems to Ukraine

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...raine-00036328

ORAC 2nd Jun 2022 04:33

https://news.sky.com/story/us-milita...mmand-12625139

….Speaking in Tallinn, Estonia, the general, who is also director of the National Security Agency (NSA), told Sky News that he is concerned "every single day" about the risk of a Russian cyber attack targeting the US and said that the hunt forward activities were an effective way of protecting both America as well as allies.

General Nakasone confirmed for the first time that the US was conducting offensive hacking operations in support of Ukraine in response to the Russian invasion.

He told Sky News: "We've conducted a series of operations across the full spectrum; offensive, defensive, [and] information operations."

The four star general did not detail the activities, but explained how they were lawful, conducted with complete civilian oversight of the military and through policy decided at the Department of Defence.….

ORAC 2nd Jun 2022 06:13

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...raine-00036328

UK seeks U.S. approval to send MLRS to Ukraine

downsizer 2nd Jun 2022 09:03


^Here is Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer at his best.

dead_pan 2nd Jun 2022 09:25


Originally Posted by downsizer (Post 11239430)
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1...VUIRLu9xUoBMGw

^Here is Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer at his best.

To be fair 'he' doesn't claim these to be his photos. Much debate as to whether he's for real or not. I have my doubts although he does seem to post some information ahead of the pack, as it were.

NutLoose 2nd Jun 2022 11:05

This is the range of the rockets being sent, but of course they too would be within range.


dead_pan 2nd Jun 2022 11:09

Its probably been mentioned before, but does Ukraine have the ability to ID targets so far into Russian occupied territories? Or are they going to rely on sneaky heads-up from western recce aircraft/satellites etc? Interesting if most of their targets turn out to be in Kherson Oblast...

Expatrick 2nd Jun 2022 11:14


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11239322)
I do, have you seen the request for another 18 billion from the EU to cut off the oil supplies, it’s trying to blackmail the EU who should return the favour.

UK requesting to send US supplied rocket systems to Ukraine

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...raine-00036328

I think it's wrong to conflate the EU's "rule of law" issues with Hungary & Poland with the quite extraordinary situation in Ukraine.

However, what will be interesting will be the progression of Serbia's EU candidacy in the near future. Serbia has flatly refused to apply any sanctions on Russia although U.VdL has requested that Serbia adhere to EU policy. If anybody's looking for a Putin fanboy in Europe, look no further than Aleksandar Vučić.

Meanwhile the leaders of the other landlocked Countries in the EU (Slovakia, Czechia & Austria) must all be quietly grateful to Orbán for his stance on the latest round of sanctions.

Interesting times.

downsizer 2nd Jun 2022 11:15


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11239445)
To be fair 'he' doesn't claim these to be his photos. Much debate as to whether he's for real or not. I have my doubts although he does seem to post some information ahead of the pack, as it were.

Since being called out on it he has subtlety reworded his tweets. Doesn't stop him being a grifter - if well intentioned.

He has also stopped collecting donations - if challenged as to where the money has gone...instant blocking.

Usertim 2nd Jun 2022 11:19


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11239317)
Ukraine could take out that Kerch Strait Bridge if they thought it necessary and really put their mind to it. Might involve Kamikaze pilots though.

Seems possible but inddeed kamikaze. There are a couple of DCS simulations here ,
one with Ukraine AF attackers, and one with F22\F35 attackers and F16\F18 SEAD support
Of course it is only a game , but at least for me it gave a good indication of what forces russia has in the area to defend such an attack.

papa_sierra 2nd Jun 2022 12:14

Is UK MOD checking out whether supplied rockets will reach Snake Island. https://www.qinetiq.com/en/aberporth...n-for-mariners (click on weekly programme).

FlightDetent 2nd Jun 2022 12:39


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11239322)
I do, have you seen the request for another 18 billion from the EU to cut off the oil supplies, it’s trying to blackmail the EU who should return the favour.

Well, perhaps it's still worthwhile spelling it out for others.
It's his right to voice unreasonable demands.
It's the right of citizens of sovering Hungary to elect their leaders and take their inventory.

Punishing someone for having a different opinon opens a path with one ending only. Disregarding the whole country for being of inadequate thinking and not knowing who is the correct figure to elect ---- - - ---- -- - - - - leads to de-nazifying with a special operation.

The whole madness in UKR was made possible because of German dependency on Russian energy sources. Well crafted over the last 20 years, step by step, by shortsightedness and Russian GRU money channels, or Gazprom - same pocket. Despite the loud outcries from Visegrad 4. Forced into common EU electric market, those countries are forced to match electricity price which German customer is ready to pay. Not nice with 1:3 GHP per capita disparity.

Now, the gas and crude oil contracts, were they long term by any chance before the war? Pointing out here the difference between the contracted supply price and the market quote gets pocketed by the wholesalers, even these days. Those would be certain Russian-EU joint ventures.

Orban playing a naughty brat? Cry me a river, the cash is going elsewhere.



uxb99 2nd Jun 2022 12:51


So what's the in theatre life span of a Bayraktar Drone?

Clop_Clop 2nd Jun 2022 13:18

Whole Europe is dependent on Russian oil and gas not only Germany, saw the share of Russia imports to Germany for example is 35% in total. I am sure there are issues involved supplying large quantities of oil and gas via sea now instead, so it's not hard to see why the old arrangement made some sense at least before VP started to reestablish the USSR 2.0...

https://www.iea.org/reports/russian-...ssian-supply-2

MikeSnow 2nd Jun 2022 13:25


Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 11239534)
Punishing someone for having a different opinon opens a path with one ending only. Disregarding the whole country for being of inadequate thinking and not knowing who is the correct figure to elect ---- - - ---- -- - - - - leads to de-nazifying with a special operation.

What about the part of the country that doesn't agree with Orban? The election results were 52.52% for his party, 36.90% for the oposition. A ratio of about 3:2. And that's with his control of the media. If there was freedom of the press in Hungary, I doubt he would have won. The fact is that the EU, with a population of almost 450 million, has its sanctions package blocked by a leader that was voted by about 3 million people, or 0.66% of the EU population. That doesn't seem right.


Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 11239534)
The whole madness in UKR was made possible because of German dependency on Russian energy sources. Well crafted over the last 20 years, step by step, by shortsightedness and Russian GRU money channels, or Gazprom - same pocket. Despite the loud outcries from Visegrad 4. Forced into common EU electric market, those countries are forced to match electricity price which German customer is ready to pay. Not nice with 1:3 GHP per capita disparity.

Now, the gas and crude oil contracts, were they long term by any chance before the war? Pointing out here the difference between the contracted supply price and the market quote gets pocketed by the wholesalers, even these days. Those would be certain Russian-EU joint ventures.

OK, I agree, Germany made a lot of mistakes regarding Russia and energy policies. And let's assume Orban's objections about the oil import ban were entirely legitimate. But the EU has bent over backwards to address Orban's concerns and get the latest sanctions package signed. And when finally everyone thought it was a done deal, Orban comes with: "But, but, but, we can't sanction Patriarch Kirill!". This is looking less and less like looking after Hungary's interests, and more like wanting to delay the EU sanctions as long as possible.


Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 11239534)
Orban playing a naughty brat? Cry me a river, the cash is going elsewhere.

There's plenty of crying in Ukraine.

wondering 2nd Jun 2022 13:56

Gas dependency goes both ways. Russia can´t just turn on and off its gas wells with the flip of a switch. If Russia decides to stop supplying gas to Europe completely, wells have to be shut down and secured. Not that simple. Same for reopening. The question is who gets hurt more. I reckon, we will find out this coming winter.

FlightDetent 2nd Jun 2022 14:07


Originally Posted by MikeSnow (Post 11239569)
There's plenty of crying in Ukraine.

Missed my point and the issue I had with that one Nutty's remark, Mike. Given the tsunami of grief, don't mind despite this low punch.

Russia did not attack UKR bringing mayhem and destruction because some regional leader refused to sanction them, but because they believed it was their right to do so and decide what the other country should be like. Not to their taste in the end, so they went and punished them.

Calling upon some 'super-entity' to punish a country is the same logic we see unfolding. Russia is a self-proclaimed super-entity just as the EU is, now under the stellar leadership of Leyen, Timmermans and Borell et al. (lower ranks nicely decorated from all points of compass: Szajer, Ransdorf)

The Austrian have issues with Czechs, Czech with Polish, Polish with Ukrainian (pre-war), Slovak with Magyar and Magyar with Romanians... or the other way around. Way of life, the proclaimed unity always had and will have cracks.

Even if the joint action of EU gets blocked because of actually observing the rules this time (the Irish referendum, anyone?) all the illustrious leaders are free to launch the embargo from their own countries at will.

Except they did not, and it awfully seems they are playing Orban figure as an excuse why they couldn't. Nope, Germany and Italy cutting themselves from RU supplies would be a hit large enough, no need to wait and single out the family's unwanted bastard for not proceeding with the plan.

Rewind a bit and see the SWIFT sanctions and how they started (not).

BTW most EU Countries' leaders are elected with around 35% count. No matter, I am not advocating for Orban or approving of his antics. I am somewhat shocked at the suggestion one country is invited to punish another.


But the EU has bent over backwards to address Orban's concerns and get the latest sanctions package signed. And when finally everyone thought it was a done deal, Orban comes with: "But, but, but, we can't sanction Patriarch Kirill!". This is looking less and less like looking after Hungary's interests,
No objections on this one, whatsoever.


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