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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

fdr 26th May 2022 12:02


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11235819)
I dont know if there is any truth in this, I sincerely hope not.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...33965279166467


Germany....yet again. renaging on promises to Poland to backfill their armour in return for sending tanks to the Ukraine.

https://www.politico.eu/article/poli...nk-deliveries/

They get to own the outcome if they do that. Putin has no intent to stop in the East of Ukraine, so these guys get the fallout in their own back yards and with their own citizens. Myopic view if true. Separately, as much as Russia will be hated for the next century, so to will the quisling governments that appease Putin.

uxb99 26th May 2022 12:10


"Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
I don't know if there is any truth in this, I sincerely hope not.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...33965279166467
Germany....yet again. reneging on promises to Poland to backfill their armour in return for sending tanks to the Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/poli...nk-deliveries/"
Does this constitute appeasement?
Sounds a bit like. If you are winning we will agree to send you stuff but once you start loosing we are not interested as we fear Putin. I think we will be interested soon, very soon.



Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11235744)
Is it me, but are the Ukrainians temporarily on the back foot....

More likely they have been losing for a while and the propaganda has been painting a rosy picture.
Without NATO help they will loose. The question is what will Russia win and can it keep what it's won?



Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11235809)
So it might make sense to pull back preventing being cut off and surrounded, then retake the offensive in cutting off their supply lines?

As Russia did in WW2. Retreat causing the enemy to extend their supply lines beyond what they can easily maintain.

Sue Vêtements 26th May 2022 12:14


Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 11235734)
"The British Prime Minister wrote a congratulatory letter to Viktor Orbán . . .

did it say Hungary would receive 350 million a week? :rolleyes:


Expatrick 26th May 2022 12:43


Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements (Post 11235848)
did it say Hungary would receive 350 million a week? :rolleyes:

No, but I believe he did offer an oven ready deal!

ORAC 26th May 2022 13:24


Nice bit of business for the US there, with more to follow no doubt.
The Polish Army will apparently acquire some 500 M142 HIMARS to equip 80 MRL batteries.


Barksdale Boy 26th May 2022 13:27

SV and Exp

Grow up for Heaven's sake!

Expatrick 26th May 2022 13:59


Originally Posted by Barksdale Boy (Post 11235899)
SV and Exp

Grow up for Heaven's sake!

Livng rather close to the Ukraine border I need a bit of humour, sometimes.

WideScreen 26th May 2022 15:36

Iskanders to Belarus

This does look an excellent opportunity to me, for the NATO to step in and destroy that stuff in Belarus, the first moment a launch has been sent off to Ukraine.

WB627 26th May 2022 15:42


Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 11235916)
Livng rather close to the Ukraine border I need a bit of humour, sometimes.

I'm with you Exp so in that vein.........

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0507075c5c.jpg

WideScreen 26th May 2022 16:21


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11234827)
Ominous, what powers does that put in Orban’s hands?

”Hungary declares state of emergency due to war in Ukraine.

Pro-Kremlin Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in a video message that the war posed a threat to Hungary's security, the financial sector and energy supplies.”


Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins (Post 11235141)
My thoughts exactly and have been frustrated for some while that the EU won't grow some backbone to stand up to Orban. If NATO were to have Article 5 triggered, I am not at all confident that Hungary would join in and no boubt Putrid will be counting on that

The problem is, neither EU nor NATO does have a kind of "sin-bin". The EU was wringing itself into bendy reasoning to at least punish Orban financially, when Covid came around.

Let alone, when the NATO would decide to action, Orban will be on the emergency brake.

WideScreen 26th May 2022 16:28


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11235126)
......
Sadly though the peacekeeping force should have went in when Russia announced its intentions to do the same. that would have stopped the war on day one.
.......

Yep, this would have made the difference, even when it would have been small battle groups. Unfortunately, it did not happen.

WideScreen 26th May 2022 16:43


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11235538)
US Defence Intelligence agency assess that less than 40% of Russian missiles fired during the war in Ukraine have hit their intended targets. 20-30% fail to launch or crash in flight and many miss aiming points.

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-r...a-show-1709388

Which emphasizes why the Russians want their mobile nukes at the Finnish border. For the reach distance, it doesn't matter, for the failure fall-out it does.

At the military level, failures are calculated, so just have enough extra capacity. Though, this amount of failures is high.

WideScreen 26th May 2022 16:53


Originally Posted by SASless (Post 11235583)
How does US Intelligence "know" what the aiming points were?

Are these the same Intelligence Analysts that did not see this War coming and said it would only last three days...that did not see the Taliban taking over Afghanistan...that "knew" there were WMD's in Iraq?

That the Russians are mucking it up big time is easy to see.....but to know with certainty requires a lot of confirmed inside information....which I do not believe for a second that we have.

Aiming points: Just practical items: When you see the rocket ignition flash, but no rocket departure, etc. When the rockets land in Russia itself. When the rockets land in farmland, etc.

Regarding the war prediction: The Biden government did have pretty accurate predictions when and what was going to happen. The performance time-line did surprise everybody, the whole world, including Putin.

And the WMD/Iraq: That was upfront clear, the whole WMD was complete nonsense. The Second Iraq war only happened because Bush senior told Bush junior, he did regret, he did not finish off Saddam Hussain. And then, subsequently, further encouraged by Cheney and his war industry. Sorry for the thread-drift.

WideScreen 26th May 2022 17:02


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11235840)
They get to own the outcome if they do that. Putin has no intent to stop in the East of Ukraine, so these guys get the fallout in their own back yards and with their own citizens.

Yep, Orban is more and more becoming a Putin slave, just like Lukashenko.


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11235840)
Myopic view if true. Separately, as much as Russia will be hated for the next century, so to will the quisling governments that appease Putin.

Yep, that is an important one. And that includes China, implying the financing of the China military (large scale export of consumer/industrial thingies to Western countries) will be scrutinized.

AndySmith 26th May 2022 17:31


Originally Posted by WideScreen (Post 11236003)
Yep, Orban is more and more becoming a Putin slave, just like Lukashenko.

As someone who resides in said country, that happened a long time ago and there are too many sweet deals to lose with Putin if the latter is removed - hence the current Hungarian stance. If you listen to the "Kremlin File" podcasts - there is a whole show about how the Russians corrupt governments with infrastructure deals - hmmm, just like the Paks II deal for the new nuclear power station that is being financed and built by the Russians. It's so sensitive that the whole deal is a state secret and nobody but the ruling party here know what is going on.

skua 26th May 2022 17:38


Originally Posted by AndySmith (Post 11236016)
As someone who resides in said country, that happened a long time ago and there are too many sweet deals to lose with Putin if the latter is removed - hence the current Hungarian stance. If you listen to the "Kremlin File" podcasts - there is a whole show about how the Russians corrupt governments with infrastructure deals - hmmm, just like the Paks II deal for the new nuclear power station that is being financed and built by the Russians. It's so sensitive that the whole deal is a state secret and nobody but the ruling party here know what is going on.

And the Chinese with e.g. Sri Lanka.

tdracer 26th May 2022 17:45


Originally Posted by SASless (Post 11235583)
How does US Intelligence "know" what the aiming points were?

Are these the same Intelligence Analysts that did not see this War coming and said it would only last three days...that did not see the Taliban taking over Afghanistan...that "knew" there were WMD's in Iraq?

That the Russians are mucking it up big time is easy to see.....but to know with certainty requires a lot of confirmed inside information....which I do not believe for a second that we have.

While I share some of your skepticism of the US Intelligence systems, there is no question that all those AWACS, P-8, and similar aircraft flying around near the Ukraine are gathering massive amounts of information regarding the performance (or lack thereof) of the various Russian weapons systems.

Expatrick 26th May 2022 18:33


Originally Posted by AndySmith (Post 1123601)
It's so sensitive that the whole deal is a state secret and nobody but the ruling party here know what is going on.

Really? I'd expand but not in the scope of this thread.

uxb99 26th May 2022 18:58

So what's the purpose of these munitions?


ORAC 26th May 2022 19:12

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-r...a-show-1709388

Exclusive: Russia's Air War in Ukraine is a Total Failure, New Data Show


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