Thank you for this illuminating article. It shows an enlightened analysis, but I think doesn't give enough emphasis to the commitment and motivation of the troops on the ground. They represent a crucial component of the success or failure of any tactic or strategy.

I am amazed that they have done as much as they have so far, but time is of the essence. A day late and a dollar short will put an emboldened Putin on their doorstep (well, Poland's, Hungary, Moldova... and no matter how frustrating Hungary's ultra-right position has been they may regret that with a friend like Putin sitting in the lead of tanks parked in front of the Országház. Was never a big fan of the domino principle, it seemed far-fetched back in OTS, but, Putin has a stated intent, and that impacts Western Europe as it is presently drawn.

Putin bristles over the UF being given any extended range systems, while he invaded a sovereign nation with over 180,000 troops, 2,500 ballistic and cruise missiles, and as yet not a single window pane has been broken in his Krimmin. And the West worries about not "offending" him? Putin is an offensive, criminal, heading up a criminal gang that has pillaged Russia for 22 years in the continuous abuse of the Russian citizens, a long-established tradition of abuse going back to pre-Tzarist Russia. He has amassed a fortune by plundering the future of his nation, and now throws the nation's youth into a meat grinder of his egotistic discretionary war, that risks global famine that will be forever linked to his name and the shame that is Russia's for acquiescing to this evil git. the risks exist from him and him alone, and the choice is whether the west supports courageous efforts to suppress Putins outrageous behavior, or defers it to Polish, German and Baltic lands in the near future.

Now it is inconceivable that Russia has the conventional forces to push westwards anytime soon, and I suspect that as the new North Korea, that will take a while to change, but being subservient to the conventional threat merely emboldens his nuclear threats following on later.

So, Germany, France, decide where you want the war fought, within Ukraine or on your land, those are the stark choices should appeasement occur, which is a short step from worrying about "offending" a murderous sociopath bent on hegemony.

"In my humble opinion...", E&OE

I'm with you Beardy, Johnston raises many interesting points and certainly highlights the potential for groupthink to occur if a rational analysis is not undertaken once the dust has cleared enough for facts to be discernible from propaganda. However, in this instance, the process of driving heavy armor in late winter with a force of conscripts that were not ideologically sold on the master plan is evidenced in mutinies, tank scrap heaps, and endless youtube & TikTok images. The meeting of technological change and tactics seems to have been a surprise to all concerned. The greatest force multiplier at this time apart from the moral and logistical benefits of being in fortified defensive positions appears to be the relatively pinpoint accuracy and timely delivery of a response from the employment of drones. Russia still has bullets and shells remaining, willing participants seem to be getting harder to find, whereas Ukraine has a ready supply of people incensed at the actions of Putin.

The risks for Ukraine are still real, and their troops are dying daily in the action to evict Putin and his minions from their land. Their overall position in the NE is serious, but then RF have to be thinking about the fact they may well have a large force about to be cut off on the west side of the Dnieper, they have two readily interdicted supply lines across the Dnieper that can be stopped readily by the Ukrainians from their current position, and that leaves the RF west of the Dneiper completely at risk.

This is a vicious war being fought, and not much turns out as planned; the last reported Russian Su-25 downing did end up being a Su-27 of the UF brought down by a blue-on-blue event. A small tragedy in the middle of an immense tragedy.

while all eyes are on the East and the bits west of Kerson, there is the following RFS floating about...The Ivan Gren class, Russian designation Project 11711

• Pyotr Morgunov 1x BTG. NF

Ropucha Project 775

• BDK-91 Olenegorski Gornjak. NF
• BDK Georgy Pobedonosets NF

Project 775M Ropucha

• BDK-130 Korolev BF
• BDK-127 Minsk BF
• BDK-102 Kaliningrad BF
• BDK-64 Caesar Kunikov BSF
• BDK-46 Novocherkassk BSF
• BDK-54 (Azov) BSF
• BDK-67 (Yamal) BSF

Project 1171 (Tapir-class) ‘Alligator”

• BDK-69 Orsk BSF
• Nikolay Filchenkov BSF

That's about ~130 tanks, 4,000 troops worth, which makes for a lot of neptune/harpoon/brimstone opportunities. a fair amount of activity around Snake Island.
About time US-flagged:} grain ships went in and picked up cargo in Odessa....

Dmitri Medvedev just posted on his Telegram account his thoughts of Ukrainians. He is actually announcing the genocide of Ukrainian people as his goal.
And this from the former president of Russia, current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council.
A mein kampf moment.

That won't make his memoirs a best seller outside of Moscow.

I was guessing that he was referring to Luxembourg. :p:}

Based on Putin's rhetoric, objectives to the east of Ukraine aren't his aim, although Moldava / Transdniestra probably are. And the Baltic States? Probably, if one is to guess at the content of his dreams.

For beardy: well said, and that squares with the old adage about "the moral is to the physical as three is to one". Johnson's piece and what's going on in Ukraine reminds me of the Middle East a little bit. As a general thought based on many sources over the years: a lot of the troops there are much better in the defensive than in the offensive. (I am leaving the Israelis out of this).

Great link, ORAC, thanks! The combined arms bit (and how darned hard it is to do well as one scales up to Division and Corp level operations, which is what the Russians are doing), and the need for air superiority/supremacy for things like River Crossings and Amphibious ops, and the incredible difficulty of deception/masking of units, were well presented. (As an aside: do the Russians have anything like the NTC at Fort Irwin? It's a one of a kind training asset). The rotations there do not always assume air superiority/dominance for the Blue Forces.
Also a thought worth pondering: if the Iraqis had had drones and eyes-in-the sky in 2003, how much higher would the butcher's bill have been? One cannot know the answer to that, but it's a question one must address if one is a leader in the Western armies whose "casualty aversion' (which really came to prominence during the 90's in the US) is an embedded assumption.
A few other points worth bringing up from that link:
I remember reading some of Jeffrey Record's stuff, this rings a bell a couple of years later.
Importantly: non peer adversary.
I will suggest that the Chinese are also paying very close attention.

Are these Chinese copies of the mosin-nagant? Artificially aged by soaking in soy sauce and favoured by duck hunters.

I couldn't dissagree with a single word but seeing how western democracy has been fumbling with its own domestic issues it reveals the weakness in the system. The longer this goes on, the harder unity - such as it is - will be to maintain. I have yet to observe the human race agree collectively on anything and so the outlook is less than encouraging so far as joint action goes. The main hope is that one or two major players will get their fingers out and send whatever kit is needed in Ukraine and do something positive about the Black Sea.

Your suggestion of US flagged ships or some similar plan is what is needed and the west needs to park this Putin offending rubbish once and for all.

The Russians and Turks are apparently in talks now about Turkish escorting of Ukrainian grain ships, but oddly enough, Ukraine hasn't been invited to the formal meeting tomorrow. Maybe it's just me, but that seems to be a crucial omission.
FWIW, posted about that here. Will check the news and see if there's a change to that. Here is an article covering this possible change in the state of play, and some of the worries/risks.

Whoa, possible game-changer, Spain looking at providing 40 Leopard 2A4’s plus anti air missiles.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defe...e_systems.html

No.
All original Soviet factory made Mosin's, some freshly out of 60+ year storage.
The Soviets/Russian's never scrap anything, they even still have storage facilities full of crated refurbed captured German K98k's that they put through Soviet factory rebuild programs in the late 40's and early 50's.....

They are excellent weapons and I think rechambered to a larger round.

https://sofrep.com/news/the-mosin-na...s-well-better/

Usual caveat applies i.e. if Germany agrees....

Interesting tid bit from American history: As WW II was spooling up, recruits were trained on the Springfield '03 (WW I) rifle. Marine Units at Guadalcanal showed up with the '03. Using old stuff (clean out the cosmoline/preservative) that works is a way to do things.

Where those local troops seems to have been short changed is in the all important aspect of training.

Langsam. :(

I believe the comment was a bit tongue in cheek as the HOISIN-nagant misspell in the original post sounds a bit like a cheap chinese copy...

No rush , the Russians will still be there next year .
It is a trap they cannot get out off without escalation.
Fabius strategy in play . Be patient , death will come soon enough and all we can do is smile back .

They've been chambered in 7.62 x 54 mm for donkey's years - that was the standard Soviet round of WW2.

The major problem with the Mosin is the bolt design makes it very difficult to fire rapid (unlike, say, the Lee Enfield).

i think you'll find the question is tongue-in-cheek due to the typo "hoisin ". The habit of never scrapping any(thing doesn't work when the material stored requires maintenance/inspection which it doesn't get e.g; trucks with rotted tyres, tanks robbed of items that can be sold.

:} Would like to say it was a pun, but alas it was spellcheck and resistance to wearing reading glasses.
The M1891 was made by many different armories and manufacturers, even Remmington. Used by many countries. over more than a century, but it has one odd bolt action, and a 5 round stripper-fed fixed box mag. It was an effective sniper rifle even with the awkward bolt. China did use them, without Hoisin sauce. For a range day, they are fine but handing them out for LPR/DPR to reservists being required to lead assaults is either cynical or desperate. Surplus AK-47s abound, yet the troops are given (un-sauced) bolt action relics. Still, would be happy if they were giving out rail tickets to Moscow instead.