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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Octane 9th Jul 2022 16:15

He's a troll, ignore him:ugh:

dead_pan 9th Jul 2022 16:16

There used to be a function to enable one to mute unhinged/etc posters, but I can't seem to locate it

sablatnic 9th Jul 2022 16:31

I might be wrong, but I believe etudiant, is claiming the 1994 agreement, where Ukraine's government gave up Ukraine's nuclear weapons, to be the reason for Russia's invasion.
Had Ukraine kept its arsenal, Russia might not have invaded.

langleybaston 9th Jul 2022 16:52

I do promise you all [except one]. Take no notice and the gibbering will stop.
Nothing relevant to see here, move on please.

MPN11 9th Jul 2022 17:01

I’m always content to hear an opposite view, however flawed. That’s how Democracy works, isn’t it, where free speech is allowed … unlike some Nations.

etudiant 9th Jul 2022 17:18


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11258919)
Hmmm, what exactly was the ineptness of the Ukrainian Government that would have caused this tragedy?
Not having surrendered immediately?
Or do I overlook something they could have done to prevent Vlad the Mad violently trying to restore the Soviet empire with communism replaced by cleptocracy.

I guess pretty much everyone would agree. But not on your terms.
It yould be very easy to halt it for Russia. Just go back to the pre- February 24th borders and chances are a peace would surely be negotiable.

That is easy, the ineptness was shown by the post Maidan decision to eliminate the various linguistic minority rights in Ukraine and to believe the blandishments of future NATO membership.
Ukraine had 30-40% Russian speaking people, dumping on that large a minority is inept at best.
When on top of that you share a large and fairly casual border with Russia which you've been part of for a couple of centuries, it is dumb to pursue membership in an anti Russian alliance.
That is particularly so when Russia has gone out of its way to call that a red line issue. That is the point Mearsheimer emphasized.
To put it in context, recognize the US did not react well when little Cuba housed Soviet troops and missiles in the 1960s, even though Cuba had not even joined the Warsaw Pact.
The Minsk Accords were imho the best possible deal that everyone could live with. They are dead and gone, that opportunity is lost.
Now we have this mess, which looks more like 1914 redux every day, always escalation, never any easing, with nuclear not too far away.

Separately, kleptocracy is not limited to Russia, Ukraine is quite competitive on that front as well by all reports.

melmothtw 9th Jul 2022 18:19

Something about Stalin's useful idiots comes to mind.

Ninthace 9th Jul 2022 18:31


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11258980)
That is easy, the ineptness was shown by the post Maidan decision to eliminate the various linguistic minority rights in Ukraine and to believe the blandishments of future NATO membership.
Ukraine had 30-40% Russian speaking people, dumping on that large a minority is inept at best.
When on top of that you share a large and fairly casual border with Russia which you've been part of for a couple of centuries, it is dumb to pursue membership in an anti Russian alliance.
That is particularly so when Russia has gone out of its way to call that a red line issue. That is the point Mearsheimer emphasized.
To put it in context, recognize the US did not react well when little Cuba housed Soviet troops and missiles in the 1960s, even though Cuba had not even joined the Warsaw Pact.
The Minsk Accords were imho the best possible deal that everyone could live with. They are dead and gone, that opportunity is lost.
Now we have this mess, which looks more like 1914 redux every day, always escalation, never any easing, with nuclear not too far away.

Separately, kleptocracy is not limited to Russia, Ukraine is quite competitive on that front as well by all reports.

Your “to put in context” is ill thought through on 2 counts. Firstly, the US did not invade Cuba when Soviet troops and missiles were stationed there. Second, there were no foreign, nuclear armed forces in Ukraine threatening Russia.

On a point of order, NATO is not specifically anti Russian. It was founded to face a Soviet threat, granted, but it is a defensive alliance, and therefore does not threaten, I.e. wish to conquer, any other power.

FlightDetent 9th Jul 2022 18:50


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11259002)
On a point of order, NATO is not specifically anti Russian. It was founded to face a Soviet threat, granted, but it is a defensive alliance, and therefore does not threaten, I.e. wish to conquer, any other power.

An opposing opinion cultivates the debate. Though as a passport holder of a previously USSR-subdued satellite I have no comments on etudiant's posts and logic whatsoever, a note on NATO is due (being a happy member of).

Outside of NATO's own social bubble:
a) NATO is just an acronym for USA+their (puppy) friends.
b) US political and economic global dominance is a source and target of a lot of aggravation (justified or not)
c) a+b = unless you are on the team, pretty much everybody feels uneasy or worse about USA / NATO
d) The list of NATO / US (which are synonymous to many) uses of violent military force outside our borders is not really short
e) "d" above invalidates what defensive stands for

The inverse of knowing your enemy is not to bullwash ourselves.

Obba 9th Jul 2022 19:02

Not sure if this has been posted..
Italian TV host calls it for what it is...


Tartiflette Fan 9th Jul 2022 19:43

Germany has found an ammunition producer ( in Norway ) that can make the 35 mm shells used in the Gepard Flakpanzer and these are going to be tested this week. This means that the 30 Panzer can be delivered to the Ukraine, possibly starting next week - assuming successful ammo trials.. Ukrainian troops are already in training in Germany.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._57275780.html

jolihokistix 9th Jul 2022 20:32

The largest ammunition dump in Europe is awaiting Russian forces in Transnistria, obsolete perhaps, but with de-mothballed mechanized equipment it might just give them extra enticement to keep going.

Donbas is nice to have of course, a primary safety cushion along the border, so it’s not just an excuse, but yes, no amount of Russian lipstick will beautify this monster pig they are trying to create.

A land grab is a land grab is a land grab.

It’s only one section of the Russian populace who are openly admiring Emperor Putin’s new clothes.

ORAC 9th Jul 2022 23:28

The number of accurate strikes against ammo dumps is escalating as new artillery arrivals.

I am seeing reports that Russian troops are mutinying and refusing to man the sites.


As a result of the strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the ammunition depot in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region, the loss of Russians in killed and wounded is almost 340 people. This was reported by military journalist Andriy Tsaplienko, citing his sources.

ORAC 10th Jul 2022 05:14

Kyiv Independent: Ukrainian soldiers mine Belarusian border.

According to Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces, measures are being taken to mine areas on the Belarusian border from which Belarus could attack Ukraine…..

ORAC 10th Jul 2022 06:00

“It's all kicking off overnight with 8 confirmed ammo dumps going up East of Donetsk plus a few more over the border in Belgorod Oblast. Mariupol also hit. A few more weeks of this and the Ru will only have sticks and stones. Some spectacular videos”

Obba 10th Jul 2022 06:02


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11259033)
A land grab is a land grab is a land grab.

There's TRILLIONS of cubic meters or Gas and Oil in the western area of Donbas.
I can't find my original post, btu I believe that in about 2012-2014 Ukraine tried to do a deal with Russia. That fell through.
Then Ukraine did a deal with Royal Dutch Shell...

Looks like Russia wasn't happy with that...!

​​​​​​​This is what the war is about!

ORAC 10th Jul 2022 06:10

https://www.defensenews.com/land/202...ts-to-ukraine/

WASHINGTON — The United States is sending to Ukraine up to $400 million in additional military equipment and supplies, including four more medium-range rocket systems and ammunition, as the embattled nation tries to repel Russia’s advances in the Donbas region.

The four additional HIMARS will bring the total number sent to Ukraine to a dozen, a senior defense official told reporters in a briefing Friday. The official said the first eight HIMARS were particularly useful for Ukraine, as the fight in the Donbas has largely evolved into an artillery duel. The official refuted Russian reports that two of the delivered HIMARS were destroyed, and said all eight are accounted for and still in use by Ukraine…..

The shipment will also include 1,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition, which the defense official described as a precision-guided type that would allow the Ukrainian military to better hit specific targets, which would save ammunition. The official would not confirm whether these shells will be the guided Excalibur artillery rounds, but said they have not been part of previous security assistance packages to Ukraine.….

The official said the weekslong process to train Ukrainian troops on how to use the high-end HIMARS platform has been a limiting factor, and is why they were delivered in batches of four at a time. The official said efforts to train more Ukrainians on HIMARS will continue, but would not say how many have so far been trained.…

rattman 10th Jul 2022 07:18

Russian volunteers from 'tigr battalion" training in the east before deploying to ukraine






Lordflasheart 10th Jul 2022 08:18

Tigr Battalion training ground -
 
...
Primorsky Krai (Oblast) - down Vladivostok - Khabarovsk way - Primorye is in Kaliningrad.

Dead on Time 10th Jul 2022 08:56

The Fellas watch "Himars-The Opera"
 
turn up the volume....

(click on quote to see the link)



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