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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

albatross 1st May 2022 10:54


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11223611)
i do hope the anaesthetist starves him of oxygen during the op if it’s true, or perhaps anaesthetic as well, so he feels everything before he becomes brain dead.

I sure would not want to be part of that surgical team. “I die, you die!”

Timmy Tomkins 1st May 2022 11:33


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11223611)
i do hope the anaesthetist starves him of oxygen during the op if it’s true, or perhaps anaesthetic as well, so he feels everything before he becomes brain dead.

A splendid Idea and maybe it is all part of a solution? However, the replacement, apart from being unconstitutional, sounds even worse. What do we know about him? Anyone?

MAINJAFAD 1st May 2022 11:42


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11223605)
A little disappointed by this - the cheer was nowhere near as loud as the last time they hit one.

Explosion wasn't as impressive either!!!!

fdr 1st May 2022 12:30


Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins (Post 11223638)
A splendid Idea and maybe it is all part of a solution? However, the replacement, apart from being unconstitutional, sounds even worse. What do we know about him? Anyone?

On first glance, Nikolai Platonovich Patrushev seems like a common or garden variety hardliner, But then there are some oddities. He studied shipbuilding, he's an engineer. Engineers tend to give credence to facts and figures. His family;, the kids are all in service industries that are badly affected by sanctions. He was part of the push to the war, but did make public statements before the war to the effect that "We don't want war. We don't need that at all.", He denied allegations that Russia plans to invade Ukraine, describing the claims as "completely absurd. Patrushev was a leading figure behind Russia's updated national security strategy, published in May 2021. It states that Russia may use "forceful methods" to "thwart or avert unfriendly actions that threaten the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Patrushev )

Patrushev can do maths and has a way to separate his connection to Putin's cronies and avoid direct responsibility for the decision to attack Ukraine. He can take the position that Putin went against the stated national security strategy that was amended in 2021. Putin has to be incapacitated completely (no Easter surprises) in order to get the rest of the gang of thieves to follow. It isn't impossible, it's not likely either, but it is more rational than waiting for a guy who has Parkinsons' and Stomach cancer to recover to take the whole of the Russian Federation down the gurgler.

dead_pan 1st May 2022 13:02


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11223656)
On first glance, Nikolai Platonovich Patrushev seems like a common or garden variety hardliner, But then there are some oddities. He studied shipbuilding, he's an engineer. Engineers tend to give credence to facts and figures. His family;, the kids are all in service industries that are badly affected by sanctions. He was part of the push to the war, but did make public statements before the war to the effect that "We don't want war. We don't need that at all.", He denied allegations that Russia plans to invade Ukraine, describing the claims as "completely absurd. Patrushev was a leading figure behind Russia's updated national security strategy, published in May 2021. It states that Russia may use "forceful methods" to "thwart or avert unfriendly actions that threaten the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Patrushev )

Patrushev can do maths and has a way to separate his connection to Putin's cronies and avoid direct responsibility for the decision to attack Ukraine. He can take the position that Putin went against the stated national security strategy that was amended in 2021. Putin has to be incapacitated completely (no Easter surprises) in order to get the rest of the gang of thieves to follow. It isn't impossible, it's not likely either, but it is more rational than waiting for a guy who has Parkinsons' and Stomach cancer to recover to take the whole of the Russian Federation down the gurgler.

Wasn't Patrushev the one Putin lambasted during that infamous television broadcast back in February, when he lined his cronies up and got them to publicly state their support for the intervention in the Donbas 'republics'? Its infuriating how the news cycle moves on so much from a few months ago that it's impossible to anything about this online.

I wouldn't get too excited about him succeeding Putin anytime soon. Despite all the talk Putin looks okay to me. He'll be on the balcony come May 9th, hale and hearty, mark my words.

peter we 1st May 2022 13:29


Originally Posted by WideScreen (Post 11223429)
Actually, that kind of destroying is less stupid as it looks. The high-rise buildings are good ones to have a battlefield overview the moment the battle gets closer.

Also, the more civilian buildings are left, the more people will still be there, so the more soldiers are needed to capture the city. Completely destroy the city, and you have hardly any fighting to capture that city, no fighters can hide in the buildings. Posted earlier, were figures of how many soldiers were needed to capture a city and to keep a captured area under control. Those figures go down drastically, when nearly every civilian fled the destroyed city.

Many people here judge the Russian options, based on Western presumptions around "limit the civilian casualties and damage". Though, once you leave those subtilities behind, the Russian approach isn't that stupid to have better chances to "win" the battle. Russia isn't going to fund the repair costs for rebuilding of captured area's. They leave it to the civilians, on their own, so who cares, not the Russians. General living standard is not a key (political) issue in Russia.

Sad, but true, unfortunately :ugh:

According to the Ukrainian military they don't fire million dollar missiles at civilian targets on purpose. They have a very high failure rate.

Imagegear 1st May 2022 13:53

A number of sites now reporting that the strike on the Command and Control Centre at Izium took out another swathe of senior officers including one:



IG

macmp419 1st May 2022 14:07


Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins (Post 11223638)
A splendid Idea and maybe it is all part of a solution? However, the replacement, apart from being unconstitutional, sounds even worse. What do we know about him? Anyone?

Good write up here:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...nifesto-a77537

Imagegear 1st May 2022 14:18

and a little more:


Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia was injured near Izyum – media

Ivan Boyko
14:55, 01.05.22
1 minute51269Valery Gerasimov is urgently trying to evacuate from the Kharkiv region.
https://images.unian.net/photos/2022...42794654152204
Valery Gerasimov / REUTERS photoChief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov was wounded on the territory of Ukraine, near Izyum, Kharkiv region.

This was written by military journalist and blogger Alexander Shulman.

Gerasimov, 66, suffered a shrapnel wound to the upper third of his right tibia without a broken bone. The fragment is elongated, there is no danger to life. Army General Gerasimov and other officers sat at the command post, where the APU carried out an accurate strike. According to preliminary information, 20 officers died.

Telegram channel "Vertical" reports that the Russian National Agency Gerasimov is trying to leave Izyum, where the Rashists suffer huge losses, and their supply is interrupted.

Earlier, the Armed Forces of Ukraine killed more than 10 senior Russian commanders, including at least six generals.

MPN11 1st May 2022 14:37

Oh dear, how sad ... only wounded. His fault for being in a foreign country waging a 'special operation' against them. One could hope for septicaemia I suppose.

NutLoose 1st May 2022 15:08

Or a real bad case of Gangrene

NutLoose 1st May 2022 15:14

It says it all really. The reason for the war.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1659a8656.jpeg





NutLoose 1st May 2022 15:27

It appears there is more dodgy wiring in Belgorod


Asturias56 1st May 2022 16:24


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11223729)
It says it all really. The reason for the war.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1659a8656.jpeg

Nut. - Do you have reference for that article. I can't remember anyone finding 2 TCF of gas offshore Ukraine.

the Turks claim a very large discovery off shore but that there are no details and it's a long way from Ukraine

Shell were looking at Shale Gas onshore in 2013 - a very different beast indeed - but nothing happened - low prices possibly did for that at the time

albatross 1st May 2022 17:20


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11223729)
It says it all really. The reason for the war.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1659a8656.jpeg

JOKE ) So Putrid just wants to free all that trapped oil and gas held in unspeakable conditions underground and under constant pressure . What a humanitarian…alert the Nobel Committee! ) JOKE OVER

DaveReidUK 1st May 2022 17:52


Originally Posted by Asturias56 (Post 11223756)
Nut. - Do you have reference for that article. I can't remember anyone finding 2 TCF of gas offshore Ukraine.

It appears to be a quote from Rupert Russell's book "Price Wars: How the Commodities Markets Made Our Chaotic World", which has enjoyed somewhat mixed reviews.

WideScreen 1st May 2022 17:53


Originally Posted by beardy (Post 11223433)
Does the end justify the means? not if you signed the Geneva Conventions and are a permanent member of the UNSC especially if you want ever to be trusted again.
This should not be the new world order.

Of course, this is not justified.

Though, when you want to make a judgement about the potential accomplishments of "the enemy" you need to think along the way they operate. Not how you would do these things yourself.

2TWTs 1st May 2022 17:54

@NL - I can't post links yet but there's quite an interesting alternative point of view if you Google Rand . Org Ukraine gas

Herod 1st May 2022 18:06

From fdr

That's spooky,
Is he going to change the name of the Kremlin to Wolfschanze?
  • I mean, he has the shake of the hand thing going on;
  • He attacked across Ukraine, (in reverse direction) silly lad;
  • He attacked and forgot about the weather;
  • He took direct command from the Military as he was a brilliant [KGB spook/ Corporal/ etc];
  • He committed genocide, and war crimes;
  • He reads chicken entrails or tarot cards or something, to do with numerology;
  • Is Putin a painter?
  • Is Putin a vegetarian?
Spooky. lots of material for SNL or Eddie Izzard.

Hopefully the day to day activity includes sacking the President, but the Russian Constitution is pretty miserable in that score, but not impossible.
Is he going to send himself off to Lefortovo if he gets knocked on his butt? That would be the "cheer heard around the world".
There was a three-part programme on BBC back in Jan/early Feb, called IIRC "Dictators". On iPlayer for those who can get it. Primarily concerning Hitler, the episodes were "Barbarossa", "Stalingrad" and one concerning Hitler's mental demise. There were obvious references to Putin, including analysis by several psychologists, and comments by Kasparov, who has studied Putin for a long time. As fdr says, the parallels are scary.

NutLoose 1st May 2022 18:52


Originally Posted by Asturias56 (Post 11223756)
Nut. - Do you have reference for that article. I can't remember anyone finding 2 TCF of gas offshore Ukraine.

the Turks claim a very large discovery off shore but that there are no details and it's a long way from Ukraine

Shell were looking at Shale Gas onshore in 2013 - a very different beast indeed - but nothing happened - low prices possibly did for that at the time


Resource wars. A convincing reason, if ever was needed, for Russia's landgrab in the Donbas and desire to own southern #Ukraine. Note the timing of Russia's 2014 invasion. From Price Wars by Rupert Russell (Doubleday, Feb 2022).


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