PPRuNe Forums

PPRuNe Forums (https://www.pprune.org/)
-   Military Aviation (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation-57/)
-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

WideScreen 30th May 2022 12:58


Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever (Post 11237496)
It seems that the future is becoming clearer. Russia can only advance by concentrating their forces on increasingly smaller fronts, now effectively only a few tens of miles wide. Ukraine can't overcome the significant numerical advantage of the Russian. So far Ukrainian attempts to delimit the battle field have been very successful but they are at the point of diminishing returns.This is a recipe for WW1 style stalemate on the Donbas border.

Actually, I think, such a "stalemate" situation is all what Russia needs. They just ban the local Ukraine population to somewhere in Siberia, and inject native Russians. Subsequently, declare the captured area an independent state and let the people in that state "vote" themselves into Russia.

The result would be an even more "Russia close to the NATO borders", but alas, that was only an official excuse to land-grab Ukraine (now, for as much as possible).


Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever (Post 11237496)
Sadly I think that despite all the brave talk the Western powers, and especially the US would be quite happy with a stalemate to further diminish Russian power and influence but without the danger of Russia being backed into a corner where Russian precipitate action(s) could spiral out of control. The biggest losers will of course be the Ukrainians

I don't think, a stalemate with subsequent administrative annexation will be diminishing the Russian Power and Influence. More on the contrary, I think. Russia gains a heavy industry area when the Donbas becomes part of Russia. Of course, that industry is destroyed now, the people are deported, though the basic infrastructure and mining is still there.

NutLoose 30th May 2022 13:55

I agree, plus you are NEVER going to get Ukraine to buy into one little part of that Idea, Russia can call a ceasefire or end to its War, but it takes two to tango, and I can never see one side taking part.
My worry is with the lack of news coverage of late, the drive to sustain support may diminish, However one takes heart in the level of support already provided and hope that those countries supplying it believe they have t0o much monies and equipment invested in the endgame to pull out now,

A lovely view of what they are fighting for..Ukraine


ehwatezedoing 30th May 2022 15:24


Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 11237701)
Putting that to one side, EU (& others) sanctions are being undermined by China & India.

Don't forget also Central America, pretty much all Caribbean/South America/Middle east/Africa and a good chunk of Asia.



WideScreen 30th May 2022 15:29


Originally Posted by Usertim (Post 11237760)
I think we all saw the link a week or so ago of the proceedings of the UK Defence committee , and how in the main they were grounded in reality.

Now I present to you the words of the RF Defence Comittee deputy chairman , just another fossilized russian alcoholic he sounds like.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...12721713504257

The Nazi words "Lebensraum" and "Ausradieren" would be pretty much applicable to his views.

Looks to me, there is only one option to avoid Russia gets these ideas implemented, and that is just break up the Russian Federation into a lot of smaller states. IE, the end of Russia as a Federal state, as it is now. These Nazi ideas are just too much ingrained throughout the society, without this breakup, there will be no peace. Not now and not in the foreseeable future. So, let us hope, Ukraine is not only Putin's Waterloo, though also the demise of, and the final nail into the coffin of the failed state, the Russian Federation.

Oh, and, I don't think, we should underestimate the effect these presumed alcoholics will have inside Russia .......

jolihokistix 30th May 2022 15:31

Sri Lanka also seems to have no other choice.

WideScreen 30th May 2022 15:34


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11237864)
I agree, plus you are NEVER going to get Ukraine to buy into one little part of that Idea, Russia can call a ceasefire or end to its War, but it takes two to tango, and I can never see one side taking part.
My worry is with the lack of news coverage of late, the drive to sustain support may diminish, However one takes heart in the level of support already provided and hope that those countries supplying it believe they have t0o much monies and equipment invested in the endgame to pull out now,

A lovely view of what they are fighting for..Ukraine

https://twitter.com/UkraineNow8/stat...90678000934912

Yep, I agree, though Russia does have Nukes, so Ukraine (and the ROW) is/are somewhat handicapped to accomplish some serious long term stable results.

Lonewolf_50 30th May 2022 16:41

Wide Screen: I am not sure how you propose to break up the Russian Federation, but the chances that it happens voluntarily is somewhere between Slim and None, with Slim on a holiday. To do it forcefully requires coercion, which means (I suspect) boots on the ground.
Nobody in any capital that I can think of has the will to do that: expend blood and treasure on the kind of forceful break up that you envisage. They'd rather, in general, apply indirect methods of suasion.

Your fantasy is not a practical path forward, so why do you propose it?

Beyond that, any number of governments and companies are ignoring the sanctions that are among the indirect methods already in use. As pointed out above, yeah, the Russians are selling at a loss, but with the price per barrel having gone up a bit since last year at this time, they are still generating revenue. (And it appears that a loophole for air travel/air cargo is being exploited through Turkey, there's a thread on that in R&N I think).

The more interesting, and perhaps dire, issue arises in the coming months as the grain trade, whose flow has been disrupted, begins to have its predicted impact. Getting that unstuck is probably in the national interest of a great many nations. That is the most, as a practical matter, logical common ground for the disparate interests of over a hundred nations to attempt a form of collective action/pressure.

NutLoose 30th May 2022 16:56

And that is one reason why Russia must never succeed, with Ukraines oil and gas fields, along with their wheat producing areas Russia could hold a large part of the world to ransom. And between them they produce 80% of the worlds sunflower oil

Those are Putin goals.

John Marsh 30th May 2022 17:17


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11237140)
USA to provide long range rocket systems, these could be a game changer as they could reach Sevastopol, the bridge, their artillery and probably even Moscow, though I doubt that will happen.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...wWLQZPZZNkcP-0

There is some confusion around this. From The Hill:

President Biden on Monday said his administration will not send to Ukraine long-range missile systems that can strike into Russian territory, sending a conflicting message after media outlets reported that officials were preparing to send weapons with long-distance capabilities.

“We are not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that strike into Russia,” Biden told reporters on the South Lawn.

The statement conflicts with reporting by CNN and The Washington Post that the administration was preparing to provide Ukraine with the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), a U.S.-made system that can fire rockets up to 300 kilometers, allowing Ukrainian forces to strike into Russian territory.

It’s possible the U.S. package will only include shorter-range rockets that can’t strike beyond 50 miles.

Ukrainian officials have requested MLRS artillery for months and Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), an influential member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, backed up the request in a statement after meeting with senior U.S. military officials in Germany.

“The admin must immediately provide Ukraine with the multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) Ukraine has requested. This defensive weaponry will help Ukraine defend the eastern portion of its country against Russia’s advances,” Portman tweeted on Sunday.

“The admin must not deter itself from providing this assistance for fear of provoking Russia. The MLRS can help balance the field in Ukraine’s favor and should be approved and shipped immediately,” he added.

Olga Skabeeva, a Russian television host, warned Friday that shipping long-range rockets to Ukraine would cross what she called a red line.

“The U.S. MLRS can launch shells over 500 kilometers. And if the Americans do this, they will clearly cross a red line, and we will record an attempt to provoke a very harsh response from Russia,” she warned.

Herod 30th May 2022 17:44

At the risk of sounding belligerent (warmonger? Moi?), Ukraine needs the chance to strike at the Russian long-range artillery. Otherwise all Russia needs to do is move a kilometer inside their own territory and they're fireproof. I know, "don't poke the bear", but at some point it will be necessary.

NutLoose 30th May 2022 18:16

I still cannot get my head around the wests view that you can have a one sided war, Russia can pulverise, flatten, rape and murder Ukrainians and their cities, but thou shalt not retaliate.

The sooner they do and drop that bloody bridge, the sooner the Russian people may wake up and smell the horsesh*t they are being fed…

Ohh to watch that warmongering chat show live on Russian TV as it suddenly gets hit by an artillery strike. ;)

t43562 30th May 2022 18:22


Originally Posted by John Marsh (Post 11237987)
There is some confusion around this. From The Hill:

Surely it's about whether to supply MLRS with ATCMS (probably no) or just "normal" rockets?

NutLoose 30th May 2022 18:33


Olga Skabeeva, a Russian television host, warned Friday that shipping long-range rockets to Ukraine would cross what she called a red line.
Well that puppies already been crossed with the supply of Harpoon… has the sky fallen in on us yet?.. nope.

Obba 30th May 2022 18:54

Don't these US supplied MLRS's have a choice of 'range' missiles...?
Some are 50kms, some 70lms and some 300kms..?

ORAC 30th May 2022 19:03

Russian state TV's Olga Skabeyeva says it might be time to admit that the "special operation in Ukraine is over", it’s WWIII and Russia is now "forced to demilitarise the whole of Nato"….


ORAC 30th May 2022 19:50


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2ea2b1ada.jpeg

Expatrick 30th May 2022 20:02


Originally Posted by ehwatezedoing (Post 11237915)
Don't forget also Central America, pretty much all Caribbean/South America/Middle east/Africa and a good chunk of Asia.

India & China are​​​​ a good chunk of Asia - but I take your point!

ORAC 30th May 2022 20:13

That’s going to eat into their reserves…

In light of Turkish declarations of a military operation to create a "security strip" at a depth of 30km in northern Syria to allow the return of 1 million Syrian refugees from Turkey to Syria, significant Russian reinforcements have arrived at the Qamishli airport.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....838bf9045.jpeg


NutLoose 30th May 2022 22:18

US manufactured chips found lots of Russian equipment from cruise missiles to aircraft, helicopters and armour.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ign-microchips

fdr 30th May 2022 23:18


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11238046)
That’s going to eat into their reserves…

In light of Turkish declarations of a military operation to create a "security strip" at a depth of 30km in northern Syria to allow the return of 1 million Syrian refugees from Turkey to Syria, significant Russian reinforcements have arrived at the Qamishli airport.




https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....838bf9045.jpeg

Wonder what Russia wants to do there then.

"lie down with fleas, you get dogs..."

Russia has a little annoyance with Ankara at present, does this increase it or decrease it? If they start plinking at each other, then the opportunity for some mayhem up the caucuses in response would be pretty high, the Bosphorus would become a cork to all Russian trade from the southwest, would add to the anxiety level of all concerned.

Re Russian federation stability, all isn't light and music inside the soon-to-be USSR.... the far east, east, northeast and central regions are not too happy about having been overrepresented in the body bags and injuries in Ukraine, and they have long-running irritation with Moscow and the soon to be "Leningrad" gang of thieves. The 'stans are held together by oppressive regimes that spend what they can receive from the "kleptokrats" on monuments to horses or despotic autocratic rulers. The tolerance of the citizens to the constant theft and abuse seems to be well trained, "sit, Ubu, sit..." but then occasionally dogs bite their "masters". The terms of the agreement permit the succession of each of the states, but the state govt has to be of a mind to do that, and as they are generally as "korrupt" as the "kleptokrats" at the kremlin, Slims holiday might not end anytime soon.

The equivocation on missiles is short-sighted, hardly a surprise from our leaders, who are looking at polls as much as maps. UF are trying to 'tranquilize the beer" now, and if our flip-flops on level of support don't give them the means to do that, then it is NATO troops that will be getting the "bare cuddles" next. Putin attacked a sovereign state from both Russia and Belarus, if he doesn't want his supply lines interdicted, perhaps he should play in his own sandpit.

There's still gallons of hogs sitting at D-M, needing oil, air and gas, and armament. There is a need for a simple rugged/survivable manner to suggest to the Duma that their uninvited presence is unwelcome. For A-10 drivers, how long does it take to teach a competent driver to turn on the sights and nav systems for most basic functionality? There is a bunch of well-motivated people wanting a platform to stop genocide, and either they get to do it, or we could well end up doing it later, with our own boots 'n blood. Putin doubles down, and wrecks things, he doesn't back down, and half-hearted support gives him tacit support now.






All times are GMT. The time now is 20:34.


Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.