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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

melmothtw 4th Apr 2022 11:28


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11210355)
I am puzzled by the fact that NATO comes up on this thread constantly.
If a group of countries goes to fight for Ukraine, IT IS NOT A NATO OPERATION. Even if all those countries would be a part of NATO.

NATO is a defence organisation that defends its members in case of an attack from outside.
If a NATO member country goes to a peace keeping action it is NOT a NATO action.
If a NATO country attacks some third country, it is not an article 5 trigger.

To make it simple. Imagine for arguments sake that Poland decides to assist Ukraine by sending troops to help dismantle the russian laid minefields in Belarus/Ukraine border. It is not a NATO action.
Russia decides to shoot at these Polish troops on Ukrainian soil: it is not a Article 5 triggering action.
Russia then decides to launch missiles to Poland, now you have an article 5 triggering action.

Exactly this. It wasn't NATO that ousted Iraq from Kuwait.

Russia has shown itself to be a paper tiger, nukes or no nukes (they're not the only nuclear power, and they should remember that), and the West (either collectively or as individual nations) should not shy away from taking direct military action to help Ukraine.

I can remember the Yugoslav wars, when we in the West imagined the Serbian soldier to be 10ft tall and used every excuse in the book to avoid intervention. We eventually built up the backbone after one atrocity too many, and so ended the war. If we hadn't, they'd still be fighting it today.

Tartiflette Fan 4th Apr 2022 11:47


Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11210360)
Exactly this. It wasn't NATO that ousted Iraq from Kuwait.
and the West (either collectively or as individual nations) should not shy away from taking direct military action to help Ukraine.
y.

...and there are plenty of people on this thread - and in the political/military leaderships of various NATO members - who say that's not going to happen. None of the (non-combatant ) states closest physically to the war are calling for direct intervention, so calls like yours are reminiscent of spectators at a boxing-match shouting " Hit him , let's see some blood ".


[email protected] 4th Apr 2022 11:56


so calls like yours are reminiscent of spectators at a boxing-match shouting " Hit him , let's see some blood ".
No they are from people sick and tired of seeing the brutality and carnage inflicted by a cruel and vindictive dictator.

NutLoose 4th Apr 2022 11:57

The comment sums it up nicely.


Tartiflette Fan 4th Apr 2022 12:15

I have just read that a poll in Finland gave 63% now in favour of joining NATO and Sweden also had a majority in the last soundings. I can only imagine that these numbers will increase as the horrors that are now emerging as the Russians retreat are widely publicised. Since the accession process apparently takes months, I wonder if protection of the alliance is offered/would be offered from the start of the process. It's doubtful if this is clarified in any documents, since it would probably have been thought insignificant when the treaties were being drawn up, but would need spelling out now if talks began/were to begin.

melmothtw 4th Apr 2022 13:14


Originally Posted by [email protected] (Post 11210372)
No they are from people sick and tired of seeing the brutality and carnage inflicted by a cruel and vindictive dictator.

Exactly, they are from people who have seen enough blood.

The Helpful Stacker 4th Apr 2022 13:37


Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11210413)
Exactly, they are from people who have seen enough blood.

As I thought earlier in this thread, the lack of empathy by certain posters in this thread is surely the result of having experienced little more conflict than jostling for the garlic mayo at the Bratty wagon.

Something that has grated a little is talking heads on TV describing what is going on in Ukraine as "something not seen since 1945". The Bosnia and Kosovo conflicts were not that long ago...

Just This Once... 4th Apr 2022 13:48


Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11210413)
Exactly, they are from people who have seen enough blood.

Indeed.

A direct NATO intervention is not needed at this point. However, a 'coalition of the willing' invited into a friendly sovereign state should never be seen as provocative, especially when compared to an armed invasion and the senseless murdering of the civilian population.

Engaging Russian forces by invitation of a sovereign nation is nothing more than self-defence and that defence is sorely needed given the atrocities we are all witness to. Russia can decide if it wants to go home or not as such a coalition would not seek to attack mother Russia, just defend the host nation. Defence is never a provocation.

Beamr 4th Apr 2022 13:49

This is something worth giving a thought. This development would trigger article 5.


The exiled Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky said in an interview with CNN on Sunday that the next step in Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine might be the invasion of the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

"We must understand that, in his head, Putin is at war not with Ukraine," Khodorkovsky said. "He's at war with the United States and NATO. He said this more than once."


https://www.businessinsider.in/polit...w/90631324.cms

NutLoose 4th Apr 2022 13:50

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/worl...d-b992288.html


The suspected commander of Russian operations in Bucha has been named by Ukrainian sources amid demands for accountability over the atrocities by Vladimir Putin’s forces.

Lt Colonel Azatbek Omurbekov leads the 64th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade which occupied the city in Kyiv region where troops are accused of massacring the local population, it is claimed.

Growing evidence points to barbarism in Bucha with local women and children reportedly raped and shot.

Ukrainian activists and web sleuths have allegedly identified the presence of Omurbekov’s forces - which are normally based in the far east of Russia - and a number of other Russian military units.

Volunteers group Tretya Sila reported: “In Bucha there was a military unit 51460 from the village of Knyaze-Volkonskoye, Khabarovsk region...
Lots of photos of the brigade on Twitter along with photos of the faces of all of those sending loot home from Belarus, hopefully face recognition will identify these people and they will face the consequences one way or another.

petit plateau 4th Apr 2022 14:19


Originally Posted by Imagegear (Post 11210265)
Here we go, should say hit by a "Neptune": missile, damage not yet known, the ship is probably "Admiral Essen", picture below:

http://<blockquote class="twitter-tw...f-8"></script>



https://phototass4.cdnvideo.ru/width...20/1258265.jpg

As much as these things can be, this is a welcome development. However I've not been able to locate any firm evidence as to what caused the damage, how much damage there is, and even whether there is actually any damage. This twitter thread suggests two of these may have been hit, but no details or corroboration.


NutLoose 4th Apr 2022 15:01

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5adddbb8f.jpeg

NutLoose 4th Apr 2022 15:03

Damaged Armour returning to Russia apparently


In the mean time we've got a Ukrainian captured convoy


Tartiflette Fan 4th Apr 2022 15:10

Nutty

From your keen observation, have you ever seen any estimates of the numbers of Russian men/equipment involved from the outset, to try and make more sense of these figures ? The only one I recall seeing was 180 000 - 200 000 men but nothing else. It's puzzling that the Ukranians haven't published anything now and then to accompany the regular lists of men/material out of combat.

baron_rouge 4th Apr 2022 15:23


NutLoose 4th Apr 2022 15:24


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11210461)
Nutty

From your keen observation, have you ever seen any estimates of the numbers of Russian men/equipment involved from the outset, to try and make more sense of these figures ? The only one I recall seeing was 180 000 - 200 000 men but nothing else. It's puzzling that the Ukranians haven't published anything now and then to accompany the regular lists of men/material out of combat.


See

https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine#tanks

baron_rouge 4th Apr 2022 15:25


baron_rouge 4th Apr 2022 15:30


baron_rouge 4th Apr 2022 15:36


baron_rouge 4th Apr 2022 15:39



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