That makes sense, if they can make sure the ship goes there. As an aside, wasn't it Kennedy that used the word "quarantine" about the Soviet ships heading to Cuba? He felt the word "blockade" amounted to an act of war.

In my opinion it's not so much about losses but whether Russia can hold onto any gains or just be pushed back out of Ukraine.
I see this war developing into a modern WW1. Trench warfare with the addition of drones etc.
Neither side has superiority in anything. This benefits the Ukrainians who can just slowly bleed Russia.
The West getting bored may also be a factor.
Yep, in for the long slog I think.

Is this surprising. The reason Hitler wanted Ukraine was for the grain.

Could you not detain them under piracy laws as used off Somalia?

US Defence Intelligence agency assess that less than 40% of Russian missiles fired during the war in Ukraine have hit their intended targets. 20-30% fail to launch or crash in flight and many miss aiming points.

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-r...a-show-1709388

Given that Russia's corruption was so endemic that the vehicle tyres were rotten for frontline vehicles, it is a surprise that any munitions that need care in storage are functional at all. Most of their aircraft only need hammers for specialist tools, but electronics are much more finicky.

On the theft of grain etc, oh for the days of putting up a jolly roger on a masthead and plinking some RPGs and ATKs at the bridge to stop the complicit parties in the theft of commodities by the Krimmins. Whatever the flag is of the ship, if they are actively engaged in theft, then a rude wake-up is not going to end up with hand wringing, wailing and renting of cloth. Any shipper dealing with a Russian moving cargo that may have come from the Russian theft from Ukraine has no morla and probably no legal top cover on their complicity in a genocide of Ukraine. Should be able to get a lot of Somali fishermen with recent experience in the tactical art of pi$$ing off shipping.

The UN continues to do.... not a damn thing. The inclusion of an aggressor nation in the UN Charter in 1944 led to the workaround of that with NATO, in 1949. What is the next workaround of a world that post cold war is back to being polarised by authoritarianist aggressor regimes, and the rest of the world that is interested in doing business. Removing aggressor parties from the team is a necessity yet is where self interest continues to be an issue. When others cross borders in force it is aggression, when the rest do the same it is often considered as something else.

How does US Intelligence "know" what the aiming points were?

Are these the same Intelligence Analysts that did not see this War coming and said it would only last three days...that did not see the Taliban taking over Afghanistan...that "knew" there were WMD's in Iraq?

That the Russians are mucking it up big time is easy to see.....but to know with certainty requires a lot of confirmed inside information....which I do not believe for a second that we have.

Out of curiosity, did that fleet of assault ships/craft that suddenly departed Novorossiysk a few weeks back ever turn up anywhere?

Maybe gone upriver to shelter? The Black Sea now seems too small and too closely watched to allow any surprise seaborne assault.

Kadyrov threatening Poland. This guy's a Kremlin puppet so he wouldn't be making any statements of his own. At least not without a prior information from Moscow. Are they really actively trying to forget a certain treaty organisation?

Looks like the battle for Severodonetsk is about to begin…

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...essment-may-25

….Russian forces seem to be prioritizing efforts to cut the two highways to Severodonetsk over launching offensive operations on Bakhmut at this time.[16] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai refuted reports that Russian forces had cut off or blocked the T1302 highway on May 25.[17]

Russian forces are unlikely to completely isolate Ukrainian forces from GLOCs just by seizing the southwestern T1303 and T1302 highways to Severodonetsk given the network of alternate if smaller roads in the region and will need to block or disrupt Bakhmut and Siversk to complete the Luhansk cauldron.

Russian efforts to isolate Severodonetsk and Lysychansk may not be well synchronized in time and space with an impending direct Russian assault on Severdonetsk, although it is too soon to tell. The Russians are likely some days away from even cutting off the GLOCs to Severdonetsk and Lysychansk, and it would likely take some time for the disruption of those GLOCs to affect the cities’ defenders’ abilities to continue fighting.

The intensity of Russian artillery and air attack, however, combined with the massing of Russian forces drawn from elsewhere in theater for the assault on Severodonetsk suggests that the assault could be launched before the GLOCs have been cut or before their disruption could have a material effect.

The drive to cut the GLOCs could also be an effort to create an outer encirclement ring, however, to prevent Ukrainian forces from attempting to reinforce Severodonetsk as it is attacked or to relieve it if it is isolated or falls.

Russian forces may need to conduct a ground offensive on Severodonetsk in upcoming days to maintain their pace after committing a significant portion of personnel, artillery, aviation, and logistics to the front.[18]

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported that Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the vicinity of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk on May 25.[19] Haidai stated that Russian forces will lose the momentum of their heavy shelling and motivation if they do not launch an attack on Severodonetsk by Sunday.[20]

Haidai reported that Russian forces already committed over 10,000 troops - approximately 25 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) composed on 300 to 500 servicemen each - and military equipment including S-400 surface-to-air missile systems.[21] Russian military commanders likely had to withdraw these forces from other axes, slowing down Russian advances in Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Russian forces have also reportedly reached mortar range of Severodonetsk.[22]….

Okay I more had in mind an armed intervention rather than a vanilla peacekeeping mission. My point was, given the rhetoric from various western leaders that Putin must not be seen to win, how far they will let things go if Russian forces do start to get the upper hand (not to mention the whole grain issue)?

Alas they didn't elaborate in the discussion as to the scale, mission etc of any such force - it was more a passing comment which piqued my interest. I was intrigued as to whether such a deployment is now likely to be actively considered in any future confrontation (Moldova?), given what we now know about Russia's capabilities, limits of action regarding escalation etc, and, perhaps more importantly, what Putin now knows about the same.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...437242880.html

According to Arestovych: the “Old Europe” block (France, Germany, Italy) + Hungary (which has its own separate interest) is now trying to slow down the necessary heavy arms supplies to Ukraine deliberately to prevent any possibility of Ukraine’s victory……

Just as well given the level of devastation achieved thus far and it seems 40 towns/villages in the east are getting pounded now. If the Ukrainians don't get heavy long range weapons the tide will start to turn soon

It would be surprising if the "block" described didn't include the other V4 members, Hungary & Slovakia. The UK's support seems logical, and as reported only today -

"The British Prime Minister wrote a congratulatory letter to Viktor Orbán, commenting on the “fantastic relations” between the two countries and the planned cooperation on energy security. Johnson referred to the historical ties and common interests of the two countries, as well as the direct relations between the Hungarian and British people. He pointed out that the formation of the new Hungarian government comes at a critical time for Euro-Atlantic security when Europe and NATO need to show unity in the face of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The British Prime Minister underscored the importance of the planned sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons while acknowledging that Hungary faces unique challenges in terms of energy security. To this end, he offered the support of the UK."

The opinion on US support is, if correct, reminiscent of Kruschev's comment -

"The support given by America is in the nature of that given by the rope to a hanging man".

Is it me, but are the Ukrainians temporarily on the back foot because possibly the Russians did destroy a lot of Western aid thus cutting the advantages the Ukrainians had at the front, and with the lack of heavy arty they are forced to sit in their positions and take it without the means to counter it with the longer range guns provided. I also feel the Russians are improving on their propaganda and swamping the likes of Twitter. It also does no good all these Countries like Italy, etc and Kissenger telling them they should simply hand over their territory.

Who needs enemies when you have friends like this

I think its more likely that western military aid has been relatively slow to arrive, also Ukrainian losses are beginning to take their toll - that coupled with the fact Russia has greatly reduced its area of operations to a few key areas, whilst maintaining a shadow presence elsewhere to tie down Ukrainian forces.

The other factor being the Russians are now limiting their action to Donbas where they have long established supply dumps, rail links and short transit times, hence being able to conduct mass artillery barrages in line with their doctrine.

If they try and push further east across the Donetsk, or towards Odessa, their logistic failings will predominate again - especially now Ukraine is using Switchblade and other loitering weapons.

So it might make sense to pull back preventing being cut off and surrounded, then retake the offensive in cutting off their supply lines?

I dont know if there is any truth in this, I sincerely hope not.



Germany....yet again. renaging on promises to Poland to backfill their armour in return for sending tanks to the Ukraine.

https://www.politico.eu/article/poli...nk-deliveries/