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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

ORAC 11th Aug 2022 19:09

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....aabc84e05.jpeg

NutLoose 11th Aug 2022 19:14

And the other side of the hedge is……


DuncanDoenitz 11th Aug 2022 19:44

Difficult to know the context from these short twitter drone-clips but we keep seeing these individual Russian tanks running around, apparently aimlessly, before succumbing to the forces of Ukraine, or sometimes just to the force of the landscape. I'm not suggesting they are staged (the graphic nature sometimes speaks to that), but does any Armour-SME out there have any comment on the tactical doctrine of having isolated tanks, with no apparent support, bombing around the country? Where is the rest of the troop? Where is the infantry?

BlankBox 11th Aug 2022 19:57


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11276738)
And the other side of the hedge is……

...damn!!! thought those things could stop and turn on a dime... maybe not.

BlankBox 11th Aug 2022 20:03

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/dup...dne_base_near/

Moscow needs no smoking lamp...

meleagertoo 11th Aug 2022 20:46

Russia's got a problem.
There must be millions of ethnic Ukrainis living all over Russia, and if they can be enthused to set up local resistance networks and carry out sabotge like this all over Russia as seems to be becoming more common then Vlad the Putain has yet more to explain to his ever credulous but surely not forever credulous population?

This is surely the ultimate proof of the concept that in war what really matters is not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog?

Go! Ukraine!

BlankBox 11th Aug 2022 21:53

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraina/com...orcs_gathered/

Tragic..but kinda funny

BlankBox 11th Aug 2022 21:57

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/11/7362860/


According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, about 30-40% of generals and officers of the Russian Federation who planned the war against Ukraine are under investigation in Russia.
...not tragic and very hilarious

WB627 11th Aug 2022 22:07


I called this on day one of the invasion, Putin was never going to win. The west could not afford to let him on all sorts of levels. Think about it.

The West, well Boris and Biden, the Poles, the Dutch and the Czechs and a few others, having decided that they could not let Ukraine lose, they had two choices, mobilise and march into Ukraine with all guns blazing, risking nuclear war with the Ruskies, or fight a proxy war, supply the Ukrainians with whatever it takes and let them fight the war for. you hoping the Ruskies would not go nuclear.

I did think at one point it would go nuclear, it still might and at another point that the west had to step in with troops to stop those murdering, raping, looting Russian bastards from harming any more civilians, but the supply of "whatever it takes" weapons seems to have stabilised the situation.

Zelenski is probably the best war leader since Churchill and Ukraine will kick the Russians out of their country. Putin will be finished, it is just a matter of time.

The Russians are going to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine and a lot more in reparations. Russia will be bankrupt financially and morally for the next millennium, if not forever.

Slava Ukraini

Edited to add... Do you seriously think we would have let the Nazis march up Whitehall in 1940 and take over? The Ukrainians are as determined as we were to prevent an invader taking over.

DaveReidUK 11th Aug 2022 22:20


Originally Posted by WB627 (Post 11276832)
Do you seriously think we would have let the Nazis march up Whitehall in 1940 and take over?

About 10 years ago, I had the privilege of seeing the late, great Warren Clarke playing Churchill in "Three Days in May", a dramatisation of events in 1940 when Britain teetered on the brink of giving in to Hitler.

I can't vouch for how historically accurate it was, but by all accounts it was a close-run thing.

etudiant 11th Aug 2022 22:54


Originally Posted by WB627 (Post 11276832)
I called this on day one of the invasion, Putin was never going to win. The west could not afford to let him on all sorts of levels. Think about it.

The West, well Boris and Biden, the Poles, the Dutch and the Czechs and a few others, having decided that they could not let Ukraine lose, they had two choices, mobilise and march into Ukraine with all guns blazing, risking nuclear war with the Ruskies, or fight a proxy war, supply the Ukrainians with whatever it takes and let them fight the war for. you hoping the Ruskies would not go nuclear.

I did think at one point it would go nuclear, it still might and at another point that the west had to step in with troops to stop those murdering, raping, looting Russian bastards from harming any more civilians, but the supply of "whatever it takes" weapons seems to have stabilised the situation.

Zelenski is probably the best war leader since Churchill and Ukraine will kick the Russians out of their country. Putin will be finished, it is just a matter of time.

The Russians are going to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine and a lot more in reparations. Russia will be bankrupt financially and morally for the next millennium, if not forever.

Slava Ukraini

Edited to add... Do you seriously think we would have let the Nazis march up Whitehall in 1940 and take over? The Ukrainians are as determined as we were to prevent an invader taking over.

Very much agree that Zelensky is a top notch war leader, running circles around Putin, who seems to have decided that his best option was to appear the remote autocrat, not a winning stance imho when the plan goes pear shaped.
That said, Zelensky has the huge advantage of guaranteed supply of money and material, the US and NATO are picking up that tab. His job is to keep the people engaged, which he is doing superbly. The Russian press mocks him as a comedian, but he has his finger on the pulse much better than Putin's press crew. What is not clear is what price in blood Ukraine is paying, whether they are able to sustain the losses going forward.
There is a fine book 'The Audit of War' by , which lays out in some detail the way that the war laid bare the shortcomings of the pre WW2 British economy. Imho, Putin's Russia is experiencing a similar shock, a wire brush audit of the state of Russia's economy now that the western technical inputs are withdrawn.
What is surprising is that the regime in Russia does not appear to be taking this seriously. Russia is losing the war and the leadership response is not mobilization, but to recruit convicts from the prisons. This is a continuation of the penny pinching technique that has been the bane of Russia's Ukraine invasion from day 1, when they attacked a 200,000 strong armed force with about 130,000. The concern is of course that the leadership is blind to the actual state of affairs and will throw in their nuclear forces to force a conclusion once they realize the true state of affairs.

Winemaker 11th Aug 2022 23:14


Originally Posted by BlankBox (Post 11276829)

It's amazing how drones and highly accurate artillery have changed the battle field. Soldiers there must know they are being watched; most positions are known. With the intel provided by the west and long range accurate rockets we're seeing a LOT of Russian officers killed; how long can this go on for the Russians? I would expect push back from the troops....

Winemaker 11th Aug 2022 23:59


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11276167)
Assuming it was a ballistic missile and slowed to zero vertical velocity at its apex and accelerated under gravity to M2.5 - then it would have peaked at just over 50,000ft and fallen for 60 seconds before impact.

Since it’s accelerating under gravity the distance from the launch point is irrelevant, it’s the height from which the descent commenced which determines the terminal velocity.

Actually this is not how it works. A ballistic trajectory is the path of an un-powered projectile that is affected by gravity. The only flight path where the projectile slows to zero vertical velocity is a vertical launch. Yes, the rocket will coast up to some height and then fall down vertically, but any path other than vertical will not do that.

The extreme other example is a projectile (rifle bullet for example) that is fired absolutely horizontally. During its flight the bullet will experience a downward force from gravity of 9.8 m/sec^2. If the bullet is shot from a mountain top, in one second it will fall 9.8 m. Its horizontal velocity will still be very high, reduced only by aerodynamic drag. In fact, if the bullet is fired and a weight is dropped from the same height at the same time of firing, after one second both objects (in a vacuum of course) will have dropped the same amount.

So a ballistic missile that is launched a some none vertical angle will have a component of velocity greater than zero even as it arcs over its highest altitude and down toward the target. The lower the angle of launch the greater the horizontal component of velocity. The velocity of a missile impacting a Soviet airbase will not be from the maximum altitude it reaches unless it's fired straight up (which I suspect is not the case).

Since I'm being pedantic, I'll also point out that a falling object in the atmosphere will reach some terminal velocity, determined by its drag characteristics; for a sky diver it's about 120 mph. I seriously doubt any dropped object in the atmosphere will go supersonic.

nevillestyke 12th Aug 2022 00:21


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11276857)
What is not clear is what price in blood Ukraine is paying

What IS clear, is that the Ukranians are willing to pay it. Do we see Ukranians jumping off their sunbeds and legging it?
The nuclear threat is still there, as it always was; no change.

GlobalNav 12th Aug 2022 01:03


Originally Posted by nevillestyke (Post 11276882)
What IS clear, is that the Ukranians are willing to pay it. Do we see Ukranians jumping off their sunbeds and legging it?
The nuclear threat is still there, as it always was; no change.

Also what’s is clear is that every element of assistance that can be provided to the Undaunted Ukrainians should be. These are freedom loving people who stand for what Americans have claimed to stand for over two centuries. Words are one thing, but actions are the true substance, and we need to do whatever it takes to honor the sacrifices of the Ukrainians and speak/act against the Satan that Russia has become (credit to Pres Reagan).

soarbum 12th Aug 2022 01:11


Originally Posted by Winemaker (Post 11276873)
Actually this is not how it works. A ballistic trajectory is the path of an un-powered projectile that is affected by gravity. The only flight path where the projectile slows to zero vertical velocity is a vertical launch. .

Velocity is a vector with components in x,y and z. ORAC clearly referred to zero vertical velocity, ie the z component. If it went up and came back down, then at some point, the vertical component was zero regardless of the shape of the trajectory.


Originally Posted by Winemaker (Post 11276873)
Since I'm being pedantic, I'll also point out that a falling object in the atmosphere will reach some terminal velocity, determined by its drag characteristics; for a sky diver it's about 120 mph. I seriously doubt any dropped object in the atmosphere will go supersonic.

I don't see why not if the object has a small enough cross section, a large enough mass and some fins to keep the pointy end at the front. Also bear in mind that the air density is much lower during the upper part of the trajectory.

ps: since you mentioned sky divers, low level divers reach 120mph while spread but Felix Baumgartner reached 843.6 mph (Mach 1.25) on his dive

rattman 12th Aug 2022 01:24


Originally Posted by Winemaker (Post 11276873)
Since I'm being pedantic, I'll also point out that a falling object in the atmosphere will reach some terminal velocity, determined by its drag characteristics; for a sky diver it's about 120 mph. I seriously doubt any dropped object in the atmosphere will go supersonic.

ATACMS is believed to reach mach 3 during its terminal phase

NutLoose 12th Aug 2022 01:34

Taking out a Russian counter drone system…….. from a drone :D


NutLoose 12th Aug 2022 01:39


Originally Posted by Winemaker (Post 11276873)

Since I'm being pedantic, I'll also point out that a falling object in the atmosphere will reach some terminal velocity, determined by its drag characteristics; for a sky diver it's about 120 mph. I seriously doubt any dropped object in the atmosphere will go supersonic.

That is totally height dependent, the higher you go, the thinner the atmosphere, the faster you drop.


In 2012, the record for the highest skydive in history was broken by Felix Baumgartner in what’s been considered as the greatest marketing stunt in history! People from around the globe stopped everything to watch a YouTube live stream of Baumgartner stepping out of his Red Bull capsule from the stunning altitude of 127,852 feet! Baumgartner’s jump would set records for the highest skydive in history, fastest freefall speed (843.6 mph or Mach 1.25), and become the first man to break the sound barrier without vehicular power. Additionally, Baumgartner broke the records for vertical freefall distance with a drogue parachute, and vertical speed without a drogue.
https://www.skydivetecumseh.com/2020...ve-in-history/

fdr 12th Aug 2022 02:18

Existential threats
 
Russia's contempt to the safety of the Zaphorisia NPP is a existential threat to Europe, Central Asia and southern Russia, as well as China and North Asia.

At what point do the adults get off their backsides and place a protective force around the NPP to stop Russia causing mayhem to themselves and all others.


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