Excellent + brave reportage from Sky's Alex Crawford:

https://news.sky.com/video/alex-craw...ntrol-12620630

I wonder if there'll come a point when either NATO or the likes of the US/UK/Poland say enough's enough and deploy a peacekeeping force into Ukraine? Given Putin's ever-shrinking war aims I doubt he would escalate in response if we did.

On which note there was an interesting comment during the Parliamentary select committee discussion with General Sir Richard Barron posted here a few days ago on whether posting a battalion or two of NATO troops into Kyiv would have deterred Putin, knowing what we know now about Russia's military (in)capabilities.

The areas where NATO or other foreign intervention would have any effect are those where there is no peace to keep. It's not going to happen.

They could have an effect in the North of the country which would free up the troops that are being held back to defend from any aggression from Belarus.

Sadly though the peacekeeping force should have went in when Russia announced its intentions to do the same. that would have stopped the war on day one.

One glimmer of hope is it appears Russia is now having to generate a tank battalion on T62's which means they must have exhausted their reserves of modern armour.



Someone makes a good point too

My thoughts exactly and have been frustrated for some while that the EU won't grow some backbone to stand up to Orban. If NATO were to have Article 5 triggered, I am not at all confident that Hungary would join in and no boubt Putrid will be counting on that

While Hungary would like Transylvania & Trans Carpathia back there is no expectation that that will happen.

But if we're going to go into history let's remember that Finland also sided with Hitler to regain lost territories. Romania & Italy also sided with Hitler.

. . . so did the Daily Mail

Ukrainian sniper ;) ermm, not exactly a subtle stealth approach, I believe they are modified APC weapons?

Earplugs on the list of demands?

As much as I wish the Kyiv Independent numbers are accurate, I am afraid they are inflated. 205 planes? 170 helicopters? I´d rather stick to Orxy for a conservative assessment. Same for the UK daily intel update. Imho, way too optimistic. This will be a long bloody slog. Too early to tell who will wear down first. I am sure the Russians can still draw on some serious reserves. They could dig in, hold what they have and keep harassing the rest of Ukraine for years until the West gets tired. Just like in 2014.

At the moment the Donbas is a meat grinder. Ukrainians loosing lots of service members since Russians are outgunning them by a huge margin. Ukrainians need a lot more firepower to hold the Orcs back.

For the sake of Ukraine I hope I am too pessimistic.

Having just finished an excellent book on the Habsburgs (Martyn Raty), who ruled Austria-Hungary up until its demise, that map you posted was a nice follow on to that for me as regards the dismantling of the Hungary part of Austria-Hungary after 1918 and the illustration of how they wanted to "get some of their own back," as it were. Thank you.

You can't deploy peace keepers until there is a peace to keep, and FFS, in Bosnia peacekeepers didn't work for 4 years. So in 1995 NATO had to do Peace Enforcement and you can't do that without a ceasefire or an agreement. What you are asking for is missing a crucial prerequisite.
If you are asking for armed intervention, that's another matter.
Do you really think that a two battalion speed bump would have stopped Putin? I doubt it.
Of course we'll never know as the political will to do that never materialized in the time when it would have been needed.

For NutLoose
Maybe and maybe not.
The political will to do that was utterly absent in "The West" for an expanse of months where the mobilization was happening right in front of everyone's faces.
In hindsight... it might have been a preventative, or it might have been treated as a casus belli. It could have gone either way.

Think also of how differently the first 48 hours would have been were there a NATO no-fly zone/combat air patrol/Air Defense Patrol (Typhoons, F-16's, F-35's, etc) over central and western Ukraine. Easier to do than boots on the ground, but still not an option exercised. And what a mess the RoE might have been for that op. :yuk:

I think we read last month that the Ukrainians were stripping heavy weapons from the armour they could not repair, with small factories mass-producing new mounts to use them as personal weapons.

But it would appear Putin had a vastly inflated idea of his own military's capabilities, so he may have gone in regardless with his best gear from the start (assuming any of it is real or actually works) and who knows where that would have spiralled to.

Syria & Iran for starters, a bunch on tinpot African “countries” that Trump had a far more appropriate name for, India maybe, North Korea if they could afford it, and of course China. Even just funnelling it through another country seems to get around embargoes. No country is going to sit with that off their coast while their people begin go starve if this gets really bad in the next year or so.

Ukrainians fit pickup trucks with grenade launchers

There is a report in the DT that the RN will not be taking part in a plan to escort Ukrainian grain ships out of Odessa and through the Black Sea. The Times says, essentially, that the RN is working on plans for such an operation. Not, of course, conflicting reports as I am sure the planners are looking at it. The Montreax agreement would seem almost insuperable.

https://news.yahoo.com/cnn-publishes...k=tw&tsrc=twtr

It shows the stolen grain being loaded onto bulk carriers, surely the simple way around it is to prevent it leaving the black sea by means of a blockade where the ships could be seized and the grain removed before the ships are released, it could then be sold and the proceeds returned to Ukraine for them to recompense the farmers.

Nice idea, Nutty, but as I understand it, the Bosphorus is closed to military vessels. So, although the RN, and probably others, are looking at the idea, is seems to be a non-starter. The alternative would be to intercept them after they leave the Bosphorus, but that is Turkish territorial waters I think.

Before the armchair admirals start laying plans, where would they be taking it too?

I am not suggesting taking it in territorial water, I would take it to Egypt where the last lot went but was turned away at Ukraines request, offload it there and sell it, monies going to Ukraine.

Twas just an idea…