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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Expatrick 3rd Jun 2022 13:21


Originally Posted by B Fraser (Post 11240091)
A view not shared by my Ukranian friend and the Ukrainian refugees who will be at our jubilee lunches this weekend.

Fair enough, they are some of the lucky few.

ORAC 3rd Jun 2022 13:24

The Russian 35th army, transferred from Far East and stationed in Izyum, is successfully destroyed by its own army command as evidenced from this full of irony and snark report received and shared by a Russian livejournal blogger.

https://wartranslated.com/russian-35...s-own-command/

ORAC 3rd Jun 2022 13:32

Another own goal for Russia….

“New poll says 52% of Germans want American nuclear weapons to stay in Germany, vs 39% for withdrawal.

Eyebrow-raising : 64% of Green voters want them to stay.”….

https://www.tagesschau.de/investigat...hland-101.html

etudiant 3rd Jun 2022 13:46

Chinese academic thinks the Ukraine/Russia situation is a preview for a Taiwan/China event;
https://www.readingthechinadream.com...n-ukraine.html

ORAC 3rd Jun 2022 14:45

Swedish government crisis with PM threatening to resign - parliament votes split 50/50 - with one swing vote held by a Kurd against NATO membership and any concessions to Turkey…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...338664961.html

Lonewolf_50 3rd Jun 2022 14:56


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11240156)
Swedish government crisis with PM threatening to resign - parliament votes split 50/50 - with one swing vote held by a Kurd against NATO membership and any concessions to Turkey…
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...338664961.html

That one migh belongs in that other thread about Finns/Swedes joining NATO.
Very interesting news item, though, thanks!

Lonewolf_50 3rd Jun 2022 15:14


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11240129)
Chinese academic thinks the Ukraine/Russia situation is a preview for a Taiwan/China event;
https://www.readingthechinadream.com...n-ukraine.html

Interesting article, if the translation is faithful to the original.

Now some people are saying that most countries in the world are supporting Ukraine, so China has to choose sides too so as not to be left behind. This is the thinking of a pawn, not a chess master. In the world game, there are only great powers, not "most countries." The great powers are the players, and the "most countries" are the pawns. The destiny of pawns is to be sacrificed for the needs of the great powers. When China was a pawn, this is what happened to China, but at the present juncture we are a player, which is nothing to be ashamed of. If Trump comes back and the Sino-American relationship goes south, will Russia support China? Putin has said that he would watch from the sidelines, which is the thinking of a great power.
The author made an allusion to the Eurozone incorporating Russia into it and being on China's doorstep, which for China is a bad hand to be forced to play. That is the position I was advocating for in the 90's : with the wall down, embrace Russia, bring them into team NATO, because the real power problem is in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean littoral) ... and nobody wanted to hear it. (Yes, I burned the rejection slips in frustration).
The author's glib "go take Taiwan" line seems to overlook that a border crossing op (Russia/Ukraine) is a whole different animal than an amphibious landing. Anything beyond this probably belongs in the South China Sea Gathering Storm thread.

MikeSnow 3rd Jun 2022 15:53


Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 11239734)
Control of the media? Rubbish! The main media organisations are based in Budapest, and the opposition held Budapest, again. 52 to 37 is a healthy margin, greater than many western elections and / or referendumsThe idea of of 0.66% blocking sanctions is ridiculous, the EU comprises 27 sovereign States. Those of us who live in Hungary are well aware of Romanian (that advanced, prosperous, incorruptible State) prejudices.

Not entirely on topic, if at all, but yes, the situation in Romania regarding freedom of the press is not very good either. Most of the media institutions, expecially the TV stations, are also controlled by the politicians in power. Still, Reporters sans frontières ranks freedom of the press in Hungary as 85th out of 180 countries, with a score of 59.8, significantly worse than Romania, ranked as 56th out of 180, with a score of 68.46. Since you mentioned corruption, currently Romania and Hungary are quite similar. Romania's corruption perception index is 45, only slightly better than Hungary's 43, and Romania is ranked 66th out of 180 countries, while Hungary is ranked 73rd, according to Transparency International. And, just as in Hungary, the opposition in Romania basically has no chance to win the elections. It is only able to win in some of the larger cities, because the population there is more likely to be better informed. The situation is bad enough that I strongly consider leaving the country, as I don't see any chance of improvement on the short and medium term.

Back to the topic of the Russian invasion, I was extremly surprised that Orban still won the elections, even after his friend Putin invaded Ukraine. I thought he wouldn't have a chance after the invasion. Then I read an article about how the press in Hungary steered the narrative regarding Putin's invasion, and somehow made the oposition look like the bad guys that want war, and portrayed Orban as being the one that wants peace. Unfortunately, it worked. If you are curious, this is the article, passed through Google Translate: https://www-hotnews-ro.translate.goo..._x_tr_pto=wapp . Yes, I know, it's from the Romanian press, so it can't be trusted. But most of the information in that article comes from Péter Krekó, a Hungarian social psychologist and political scientist, so maybe you will give it a chance.


Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 11239765)
I notice that no one has reacted to the information I gave previously about Serbia.

The difference is Serbia is not (yet) an EU country and can't veto the EU sanctions. But yes, I don't like Serbia's attitude regarding this conflict either. And, before being accused of prejudice again, I'm half Serb.​​​​

NutLoose 3rd Jun 2022 15:55

Lonewolf you might find this of interest, China is courting the small island states and part of it is allowing the use of chinese police and military on the islands if requested.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-61630963

Expatrick 3rd Jun 2022 16:08


Originally Posted by MikeSnow (Post 11240185)
Not entirely on topic, if at all, but yes, the situation in Romania regarding freedom of the press is not very good either. Most of the media institutions, expecially the TV stations, are also controlled by the politicians in power. Still, Reporters sans frontières ranks freedom of the press in Hungary as 85th out of 180 countries, with a score of 59.8, significantly worse than Romania, ranked as 56th out of 180, with a score of 68.46.

And Greece came in at 108!


The difference is Serbia is not (yet) an EU country and can't veto the EU sanctions. But yes, I don't like Serbia's attitude regarding this conflict either. And, before being accused of prejudice again, I'm half Serb.​​​​
A country doesn't have to be in the EU to apply sanctions.

ETA: Fidesz did accuse Marki Zay of wanting to take Hungary into the war but then as the Brits found out a couple of years ago (courtesy of the Law courts) campaigning politicians do make claims that may, or may not be true!

Timmy Tomkins 3rd Jun 2022 16:27


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11240172)
Interesting article, if the translation is faithful to the original.
The author made an allusion to the Eurozone incorporating Russia into it and being on China's doorstep, which for China is a bad hand to be forced to play. That is the position I was advocating for in the 90's : with the wall down, embrace Russia, bring them into team NATO, because the real power problem is in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean littoral) ... and nobody wanted to hear it..

Agreed 100%, the shock at the stupidity of triumphalism and screwing Russia via the IMF when the Soviet Union collapsed is still with me. What a missed opportunity and it lead directly to what we have now.

macmp419 3rd Jun 2022 18:53


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11240086)
In all fairness it has to be said that the German Army doesn't even possess anything as modern and potent as these IRIS-T systems. They will have to be new manufactured and will not have been planned, e.g. Diehl BGT will have to aquire parts for producing and assembling these additional systems. Unlike some of the other Equipment sagas for Ukraine this delay is probably genuine.
On a positive note: Once Ukarine has these systems no enemy aircraft will survive within a radius of ~20miles. No matter which altitude. Extremely lethal.

Thank you for the explanation henra 👍

fdr 4th Jun 2022 00:49


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11239753)
I also cannot get over the Russians sense that they will never lose wars… they lost In Afghanistan big time.

Russia has lost or drawn in 37.5% of the wars and conflicts that they have been involved in since around 970 A.D. In the 3 largest wars, they were adversely affected by their own leaders, in 2 of those cases, the weather and hubris of the invaders led to the invaders defeat in or near Moscow in winter. In one of those wars, they had to sue for peace and then deal with the civil unrest that led to the overthrow of the Tsarist regime. The Afghan war didn't end well, and that was an elective choice by the Kremlin. In Chechnya, round 1, the RF forces were shredded, and then in round 2, started by RF deliberately destroying apartments in Moscow blamed on Chechnya, RF showed all the subtlety and self control of a asteroid impact. They didn't win much, they simply destroyed all that there was there, much as they have done in Mariupol. Russia seems bent on taking the NK's position of lowest on the social totem pole.

etudiant 4th Jun 2022 00:59


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11240172)
Interesting article, if the translation is faithful to the original.
The author made an allusion to the Eurozone incorporating Russia into it and being on China's doorstep, which for China is a bad hand to be forced to play. That is the position I was advocating for in the 90's : with the wall down, embrace Russia, bring them into team NATO, because the real power problem is in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean littoral) ... and nobody wanted to hear it. (Yes, I burned the rejection slips in frustration).
The author's glib "go take Taiwan" line seems to overlook that a border crossing op (Russia/Ukraine) is a whole different animal than an amphibious landing. Anything beyond this probably belongs in the South China Sea Gathering Storm thread.

The piece is from an academic who strives to understand the big picture, without many important details such as you mention.

peter we 4th Jun 2022 09:19

Remarkable difference in quality of videos and artillery accuracy between Russia and Ukraine

https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_te...vali-7652.html

NutLoose 4th Jun 2022 23:46

Slovakia to build weaponary for Ukraine before for themselves, how awesome is that.

https://en.defence-ua.com/industries...rity-3184.html

Russia also lost an expensive UAV nr Odessa

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/expen...down-2771.html

..

MAINJAFAD 5th Jun 2022 01:45


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11240898)
Russia also lost an expensive UAV nr Odessa

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/expen...down-2771.html

..

Yep, over a month ago!! Check dates before posting stuff Nutty!!!

Usertim 5th Jun 2022 07:27


Originally Posted by MAINJAFAD (Post 11240926)
Yep, over a month ago!! Check dates before posting stuff Nutty!!!

To be fair while that link is a month old. South Air Command Public Relations Service (Odesa) claims to have shot down another one yesterday - 4 Jun. https://t.me/odesacityofficial/8276 or https://news.yahoo.com/expensive-rus...111015891.html

That would be the 3rd one claimed.
Interestingly despite being a much older design ( israeli licensed copy) the forpost seems to cost about twice as much as a a Bayraktar TB2. I wonder what the extra 2 million dollars is spent on.

uxb99 5th Jun 2022 09:49

All these losses are academic without knowing how much stuff each side has.
Are there any figures for losses, re-supply, current inventory, current production?
The West is giving a lot of kit, well clearing out the back of their cupboards and getting rid of the old stuff. One wonders how much stuff the West has?
So when does the West run out and any similar figures for re-supply?

beardy 5th Jun 2022 10:17


Originally Posted by uxb99 (Post 11241074)
All these losses are academic without knowing how much stuff each side has.
Are their any figures for losses, re-supply, current inventory, current production?
The West is giving a lot of kit, well clearing out the back of their cupboards and getting rid of the old stuff. One wonders how much stuff the West has?
So when does the West run out and any similar figures for re-supply?

Much more important is how much equipment and manpower can either side afford to lose. Russia has other areas of interest that require resources and commitment, Ukraine doesn't, it is fighting for survival.


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