Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 11210117)

Stop using RF gas and oil. Same as the Baltic states did yesterday, completely.

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11210122)

Is there such a thing as land-launched Harpoon ?

Originally Posted by petit plateau (Post 11210094)

Let me suggest an escalation in Western response that I have not seen put forwards before. The next bit is not a digression.

On another thread someone has asked what the post-war implications might be for the Russian armed forces, and has suggested that all three have failed significantly. I would actual demur slightly from their hypothesis that all three have performed equally badly. In general terms the Russian Navy has delivered on its primary objectives of 1) blockade Black Sea and Sea of Azov; 2) bombardment of shore from sea, 3) poised amphibious forces, some unopposed landings; 4) preservation of Russian fleet (mostly) despite many opportunities for major fleet losses (so far they have only lost one sunk LST, two damaged smaller amphibs, one damaged patrol vessel ..... not so bad given Russian aviation and army losses).

The Russians have been able to do all this because the Ukraine does not have a fleet that could do anything (and the small bit that it had was sunk/scuttled in the first few days), and the Ukraine does not have land-launched anti-ship long/medium range guided missiles. The Ukraine got one good shot at a Russian patrol vessel using unguiided MLRS and since then the Russians have carefully stayed out of range of that. The Ukraine's indigenously developed anti-ship missiles (Neptunes) had not been delivered prior to the war, only the launcher vehicles (TELs). The Ukraine has to prioritise its few aviation assets either for the air war, or for anti-ground missions.

So where am I going with this ?

1. Give the Ukraine Longer range anti-ship missiles out of stocks of any Western nation willing. Give them the means to obtain targetting data. Give them the means to run the comms to mesh that together. Obviously that cannot be using NATO assets or active western military assets. So instead that could be near real-time satellite data (Maxar or similar, though Maxar itself is under new ownership) plus unblockable real-time comms (Starlink). I think the Maxar revisit rate is good enough to get targetting solutions with a little bit of help from other sources. The missiles & launchers will need to be either land-launched Harpoon or Exocet, or aviation-launched Hellfire or similar shorter range anti-ship - the Switchblade 600 would just about do given the observed Russian naval loitering boxes. The Switchblade solution would be the easiest to deliver even if it was the least effective in a naval scenario. Some of the smaller ATGMs are light enough to mount on the bigger drones that folk are getting creative with. Even if such attacks were not successful they would have the benefit of preventing the Russian navy from full freedom of action.

2. Break the blockade. Unfortunately because of the Montreux Convention the main western navies cannot just rock up and protect their nation-flagged fleet in the normal way using their grey funnel lines. And it is quite a big ask to expect Romania or Bulgaria or Turkey to do this. So this would require some creative thinking by the West to utilise existing civil shipping in the Black Sea to break the blockade. I think there are varieties on the theme of putting Western armed forces onto their flagged shipping (or flags under their protection) and using the civilian vessels to break the blockade. For example reflag UKR merchant fleet to UK, then put armed parties on the vessels. Being realistic one would need to identify vessels that could take helicopters on, then one has decent enough assets to call the bluff. As many of the issues here are normal law of the sea/Montreux Convention legal ones, as military (naval) issues but of course are for political impact. Once broken it becomes possible to move heavy cargo into Odessa more easily.

3. .... and of course all the other more obvious stuff that everyone else is saying.

Just a thought that others may wish to biite on.

Originally Posted by MAINJAFAD (Post 11210131)

Give the Ukrainian a butt load of speed boats, fit some form of Radar Warning Receiver on them all. Fit Chaff, flare (to blind IR sensors) and Smoke dispensers / Generators on all of them. Fit NVS. Carry various forms of ATGM (Javelin a must) and some of the boats at the rear have some form of remote control and a large bomb on board. Go Boghammer to the max on anything that can launch a cruise missile.

Originally Posted by DIBO (Post 11210124)

Why don't you as simply say "stop the war"...

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11210138)

That's a pretty good idea. I don't know if it's something traditional military would consider.

Originally Posted by FlightDetent (Post 11210159)

I was just explaining beamers short addition to a preceding post. Chill.
(bumped into an old colleague on Friday, his mother lives in Bucha)

Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11210152)

Originally Posted by Imagegear (Post 11209968)

Having had over a number of years experienced the attitudes of ordinary Russians. It seems that to me that when they come to visit one's country either as a visitor or on business, one is left with the perception that they already "own" your country by their vulgar and arrogant attitude to the citizens, they just have not decided to invade, or annex it yet.

This does not bode well for any future rapprochement.

IG

Originally Posted by Usertim (Post 11210035)

I am in total agreement with Nutloose. Thinking of all the wars we got involved in over the last 40 years, and for much less evidence or cause or national interest, there stands no reason to deny UKR all the aid they need, of whatever kind. Especially giving stuff ( trade).

I cannot understand the reluctance to face up to Pootins nuclear blackmail, it cannot stand, or will set a tone for the next 50 years of international 'nuclear gunboat' diplomacy and encourage proliferation in many countries.

Originally Posted by admikar (Post 11209920)

How many of you want to bet that, at most, two years after all this is done there will be business as usual?
Capitalism has no room for morality. What is happening in Ukraine is bad, but so is in Palestine (by Israel), Pakistan, China, ME and West is conducting business with them without a hitch.
China needs resources for their own economy and they are getting all those African and S. American sources under their own control. West will need to deal with Russia again.

Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11210203)

Ukraine will suffer a Thirty Years War type disaster as this war drags on.

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11210192)

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11210044)

That apart, it would breach the NATO treaty which would inevitably lead to open conflict between members and give comfort to the Russians. It could lead to the break-up of the alliance;

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11210122)

Is there such a thing as land-launched Harpoon ? I couldn't find it on wiki.

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11210218)

I don't really know what you are referring o there, but I can't see how Russia could sustain a turbo-charged equivalent to the to the WW2 French Resistance. It would decimate ( real meaning ) their army.

Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11210203)

That ship has sailed, after Qaddafi no ruler in his right mind would ever give up their nuclear capability.
Putin is just showing all of us the bleak truth that behind the nuclear shield, the direst activities may go on.

Separately, we should be very slow to embrace the concept of 'a people's war' in Ukraine. The Russian troops are poorly led at best (afaik there is no discernible commander for the operation other than Putin, below him the command structure is fragmented), as well as inadequately trained and badly briefed. Such soldiers, thrown into a fight where every house can conceal a lethal threat will become very trigger happy. Add to this a few instances of seeing squad members die in civilian attacks and atrocities quickly become the norm. Ukraine will suffer a Thirty Years War type disaster as this war drags on.

Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11210226)

Who is to say his nuclear weaponary is any better, they have said some of his high tech weapons used so far had a failure rate of 65% heck the west wouldn’t need to retaliate at that rate, they would nuke themselves.