Originally Posted by racedo (Post 11021865)

There are a lot of soundings at the moment in relation to Eastern Ukraine and the possibility that Kiev Government will look to conduct a major attack on this area.

In 2014 the people in this area disliked the Maidan Sq protests and did one of the own which was attacked by Kiev. As this area is populated by people with more Ethnic ties to Russia than to Western Ukraine, the people got the support of Russia, overtly and covertly after being attacked by Kiev and probably a bit before as well.

Currently a large area is held by people who wish to have little to do with Kiev and seek a breakaway from it. The war of 2014 /15 was bloody and has left a phoney ceasefire since.

Ukrainian forces have been builing up military equipment over the last number of months, Ukrainian men of conscription age have been barred from leaving the country BUT not unsurprisingly it has had zero impact as Poland / Germany have had influx of people seeing to avoid being conscripted. Poland currently has 3 million people who have left since 2014 based on Polish work permit numbers, nobody knows who are there without permits.

Trump election in 2016 brought any hope that Kiev had of starting a war to an end, the ties with Biden and family are well publicised. The change in January has opened up lots of options.

Russia has responded in last 2 weeks in moving sizeable tranches of equipment into Crimea / along border areas with helicopter units being visible in the breakaway region.

Ukrainian President unpopular at home with a less than 20% approval rating needs something, US pressure is coming to bear as well and unspecified promises, shades of Saddam re Kuwait likely being made.

So questions are

Will the Ukrainian comic President seek to start a war ?
What has he been promised ?
Does he think NATO powers will intervene ?
Is he assumming that Turkish / Israeli drones which worked in Nagorno-Karabak will do the same here ?
Will Russian units in Transniestra / Crimea come under attack ?
Does anybody expect Russia to stand by and watch Svoboda / Other neo Nazi groups be allowed do as they please ?

At the moment I see it as a 50-50 chance of a war, lots of posturing but a real danger that Kiev goes for broke. I see next 4 weeks as being key as if nowt by May 1st then maybe it dies down. But as Duke of York found out you can only march men up the hill so many times.

Ukraine however is bankrupt, it has lost 1/3 of its population since 1998 and the advent of Nordstream 2 will reduce its income even further.

Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11207486)

Just rereading this classic from racedo that opened this thread back in 2021. What a shill for Putin, and wrong on every count!

Originally Posted by henra (Post 11207437)

In all their paranoia I wouldn't rule out that Putin is concerned about a (conventional) 'decapitation strike' against himself (which is ridiculous but I think he lost touch with reality quite some time ago).

Originally Posted by albatross (Post 11207567)

Joke :[Perhaps the Ukrainians can dispatch four operatives, disguised as tourists, in a Cessna 172 to land on Red Square and take out Putin.] Joke Over.
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Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207602)

Or more likely sending them South

Originally Posted by N707ZS (Post 11207598)

Will be interesting to see who and what they have left to put in the parade this year.

Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207602)

It’s probably why they are withdrawing them from around Kyiv, home for a quick wash and brush up in time for the parade ;)

Or more likely sending them South

Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207602)

It’s probably why they are withdrawing them from around Kyiv, home for a quick wash and brush up in time for the parade ;)

Or more likely sending them South

Originally Posted by albatross (Post 11207618)

Most likely a lot of freshly painted tank carcasses towed by Green and yellow JD tractors.
[ “Nothing tows like a Deere!” new JD advertising campaign.]
Sorry - it is such an easy shot I had to take it.

Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11207700)

This is old news, they already did it with the Armata in 2015! I wonder how many heads rolled for it, Pootin was apparently a bit tense on the subject.

"Russia's New 'Super Tank' Stalls Mid-Parade, Requires A Tow"