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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

MAINJAFAD 4th Apr 2022 01:14


Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker (Post 11210221)
Speaking of which....


Which particular treaty would it breach?
​​​​https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive...exts_17120.htm

Oh and....

With all due respect, you didn't look very hard.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harpoon_(missile)
"The regular Harpoon uses active radar homing and flies just above the water to evade defenses. The missile can be launched from:
......
Coastal defense batteries, from which it would be fired with a solid-fuel rocket booster."

As far as I'm aware, only the Danes used it in that role and they binned it in 2003, Taiwan is getting a land based version but I don't think its operational yet. The Argentinians managed to put a couple of Exocets on to a trailer and jury-rig a fire control system for it during the Falklands, however if you want to kill the Russian warship with the thing you will have to unload quite a few missiles at it to get past its defences.

EddyCurr 4th Apr 2022 01:27


Originally Posted by Count of Monte Bisto
Who in their right mind is going to rely on supplies of Russian oil and gas ever again?

The EU, the UK and others ...


Originally Posted by Count of Monte Bisto
The harsh reality is that all the people with the big oil reserves are people with an extremely shady human rights record.

Yes - the record of #3 on the list of "The World’s Largest Oil Reserves By Country" is particularly egregious on that score, isn't it.[/sarcasm]


Originally Posted by Count of Monte Bisto
We can whine all we want, and with good reason, but the bottom line is that the UK (and less publicly several others) have had to go cap in hand to Saudi Arabia to secure oil supplies.

While MbS no doubt relishes the recent turn of events, let's see how long he gets to enjoy his moment in the sun.
.

The Helpful Stacker 4th Apr 2022 01:34


Originally Posted by MAINJAFAD (Post 11210233)
As far as I'm aware, only the Danes used it in that role and they binned it in 2003, Taiwan is getting a land based version but I don't think its operational yet.

The question I was responding to was...


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11210122)
Is there such a thing as land-launched Harpoon ? I couldn't find it on wiki.

So the answer is "yes, there is such a thing".

Beamr 4th Apr 2022 05:58


Originally Posted by DIBO (Post 11210124)
Why don't you as simply say "stop the war"...
As if RF gas and oil can be replaced overnight.... Refineries and the associated logistic infrastructure are build with a specific crude mix in mind, and the RF crude oil is an important - not so easy replaceable - component of this mix in many EU refineries. And flows of RF finished oil products are also an important part of the oil import/export balance in EU. We will face structural shortages of diesel (possibly also JA1?) in the EU if we cut off RF exports. So defending the EU with a future structural shortage in diesel, JA1, etc?? We have been conned by our leaders into being much to dependent on RF fossil energy from a military & economical strategic point of view...
Edit: and the Baltics that made this decision, were preparing this aleady looooong time before the war...

I know just about nothing about oil refinging. But an interested individual can google up information on the subject like depending on the refinery type it may be able to use almost any Crude oil type available. Apparently a coker refinery can use almost any crude oil available in the market. More importantly and being informative for an amateur like myself there are lists of refineries that have already stopped making new deals with the russkies: https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...il-2022-03-21/
Those refineries will make it up with something else then, they will not just shut down the refinery.

Why am I asking to shut down the pipelines: Shutting the russian oil and gas pipelines will be painful yes, but that is the fastest way to influence without going to war. 60% of Russian exports and 40% of GDP is of oil and gas. Cut that out and they will run out of money very very fast.
In 2014 the drop in oil price caused the Russian economy to plummet. Add that to the other sanctions currently and see what happens...


Originally Posted by investopedia
The 2014 oil price collapse badly hurt Russia's economy. Between June and December 2014, the Russian ruble declined in value by 59% relative to the U.S. dollar, fueling inflation that forced the Russian central bank to raise interest rates as high as 17%. By 2015, Russia, along with neighboring Ukraine, had the lowest purchasing power parity (PPP) relative to the U.S. of any country in the world. Declining PPP lowers living standards, as imported goods become more expensive.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...il-2022-03-21/

The issue is that in 2014 the oil price went down to around $40 per barrel. Now the russians are selling their crude oli with a discont at $70 per barrel. That is a level that makes them loads of cash. So either make the price plummet or cut the pipelines, Which one is manageable by the European countries? There really is only one option and it is shutting down the pipelines, it will in any case be cheaper than having a war raging through central Europe.
Now add the shutdown of gas pipes and we are starting to talk of something meaningful. A combined impact, like a Javelin, first blow breaks the tanks reactive armor and the second blows the turret off.

Imagegear 4th Apr 2022 06:18

Here we go, should say hit by a "Neptune": missile, damage not yet known, the ship is probably "Admiral Essen", picture below:




https://phototass4.cdnvideo.ru/width...20/1258265.jpg

MAINJAFAD 4th Apr 2022 07:26


Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker (Post 11210238)
The question I was responding to was...


So the answer is "yes, there is such a thing".

Yes and the British don't have such a thing, so how it the village idiot in No 10 going to give Ukraine one.

The Helpful Stacker 4th Apr 2022 07:35


Originally Posted by MAINJAFAD (Post 11210274)
Yes and the British don't have such a thing, so how it the village idiot in No 10 going to give Ukraine one.

Once again, that wasn't the question I was responding to.

Tartiflette Fan 4th Apr 2022 08:31


Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker (Post 11210221)

Which particular treaty would it breach?
​​​​https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive...exts_17120.htm

Oh and....

With all due respect, you didn't look very hard.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harpoon_(missile)
."

Please indicate where it says that NATO will use its forces for non-member states.

Harpoon. You are right. I see that my eyes skipped over the coastal-defence battery because - for some reason - it wasn't highlighted like the other variants.

beardy 4th Apr 2022 08:41

No changes in tactics

It seems that the Russian war machine hasn't adapted what has, until now, been a successful game plan. Why should they, they kept winning. What have we learned? Nothing? Should we really wait for economics to defeat them or are we (and they) waiting for exhaustion to set in?

Tartiflette Fan 4th Apr 2022 08:41


Originally Posted by MAINJAFAD (Post 11210233)
As far as I'm aware, only the Danes used it in that role and they binned it in 2003, Taiwan is getting a land based version but I don't think its operational yet. The Argentinians managed to put a couple of Exocets on to a trailer and jury-rig a fire control system for it during the Falklands, however if you want to kill the Russian warship with the thing you will have to unload quite a few missiles at it to get past its defences.

I don't know which defences they might be, but I am dubious of their capabilities, and not only because of the effectiveness - or other - of Russian systems in this war. From memory, one weapons system that has been used frequently over the last 20 years is Patriot, and it certainly didn't used to be particularly effective i.e. strike rate for missiles fired. I note that in the only case where a missile did hit a U.S. ship ( USS Stark ) the CIWS did not function.

The Helpful Stacker 4th Apr 2022 08:55


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11210297)
Please indicate where it says that NATO will use its forces for non-member states.

You brought this up so, please indicate which treaty they would be in breach of, rather than failing to answer the question and attempting to redirect?

I can give you a long list of operations NATO has carried out for and with non-member states, none of which breached an apparent treaty.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_52060.htm

It's ok. You can admit you were mistaken. No one will think less of you, indeed some may even think better of you.

Tartiflette Fan 4th Apr 2022 09:16


Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker (Post 11210308)
You brought this up so, please indicate which treaty they would be in breach of, rather than failing to answer the question and attempting to redirect?

I can give you a long list of operations NATO has carried out for and with non-member states, none of which breached an apparent treaty.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_52060.htm

It's ok. You can admit you were mistaken. No one will think less of you, indeed some may even think better of you.

I am saying that that it is a certainty that many NATO members would veto any action as an alliance against Russia. This is already clear from the "hot-potato" issue of Mig 29's, with Poland saying it would supply them - but to the US and not Ukraine -for operation from Germany and the US swiftly refusing. It may be hypocrisy, but Russia is not Serbia.

Admit I was wrong ? Well, I believe I just did that with the Harpoon question, but please, spare me your approbation, it has very little worth.

NutLoose 4th Apr 2022 10:16

Blimey, Italy have sent MG42's, the mainstay heavy machine guns of the Germans in WW2 but built in italy post war and chambered for 7.62×51mm NATO along with a bunch of 50 cals.


NutLoose 4th Apr 2022 10:20

Russian DIY decoys?


[email protected] 4th Apr 2022 10:22

How much longer are European and NATO leaders going to stand back and watch the atrocities being committed in Ukraine?

Putin must be challenged militarily as well as financially.

Less Hair 4th Apr 2022 11:00

Do you want WW3 to begin?

Baldeep Inminj 4th Apr 2022 11:01


Originally Posted by [email protected] (Post 11210342)
How much longer are European and NATO leaders going to stand back and watch the atrocities being committed in Ukraine?

Putin must be challenged militarily as well as financially.

I could not agree more. The current NATO stance is simply reinforcing Putins belief that he can do whatever he wants as long as he possesses nukes. NATO is simply watching a massacre from the sidelines and will be judged by history as both impotent and afraid.

But there is more going on than meets the eye I think. The USA has repeatedly said that they will militarily defend Taiwan if China invades. However Taiwan is NOT a NATO member and China is a Nuclear power. Why the difference in stance? Why does Americas core ‘principled’ reason for not defending Ukraine suddenly not apply elsewhere?

I have 2 thoughts on this. Firstly it could be down to money - the US does immense trade with Taiwan and little with Ukraine. Secondly, it could simply be a bluff - if China invades and threatens Nuclear consequences for anyone who interferes, do you believe the USA will really fight?

In any event, NATO has proven itself utterly unwilling to even consider intervening against a nuclear power in Ukraine, and therefore has no moral authority to complain about anything Russia does in my opinion. Either put your money where your mouth is, or shut up.

WW3 is the inevitable consequence, it cannot be prevented other than by regime change in Russia. Putin has been given permission by NATO to do as he pleases in his view. Biden and others have repeatedly stated they will not intervene if NATO is not attacked, and that leaves an awful lot of the world available for him (and Xi) to ‘annex’. We fight him now or we fight him later after many more are massacred.

Less Hair 4th Apr 2022 11:11

This conflict will take longer. Economic sanctions will show much more effect over time. And Russian public opinion will need time as media access is very limited.

NATO is guarding it's member's borders but not part of the fight inside Ukraine. It is very important to not get carried away by emotions as this conflict can easily escalate beyond control. Maybe someone is even interested to let exactly this happen to make his own errors disappear within some widening conflict?

Beamr 4th Apr 2022 11:11

I am puzzled by the fact that NATO comes up on this thread constantly.
If a group of countries goes to fight for Ukraine, IT IS NOT A NATO OPERATION. Even if all those countries would be a part of NATO.

NATO is a defence organisation that defends its members in case of an attack from outside.
If a NATO member country goes to a peace keeping action it is NOT a NATO action.
If a NATO country attacks some third country, it is not an article 5 trigger.

To make it simple. Imagine for arguments sake that Poland decides to assist Ukraine by sending troops to help dismantle the russian laid minefields in Belarus/Ukraine border. It is not a NATO action.
Russia decides to shoot at these Polish troops on Ukrainian soil: it is not a Article 5 triggering action.
Russia then decides to launch missiles to Poland, now you have an article 5 triggering action.

Navaleye 4th Apr 2022 11:25


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11210301)
I don't know which defences they might be, but I am dubious of their capabilities, and not only because of the effectiveness - or other - of Russian systems in this war. From memory, one weapons system that has been used frequently over the last 20 years is Patriot, and it certainly didn't used to be particularly effective i.e. strike rate for missiles fired. I note that in the only case where a missile did hit a U.S. ship ( USS Stark ) the CIWS did not function.

That's because it was switched on, but placed in stand-by mode so it didn't fire. Even an old Phalanx could down an Exocet, even two


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