PPRuNe Forums

PPRuNe Forums (https://www.pprune.org/)
-   Military Aviation (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation-57/)
-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

ORAC 28th Feb 2022 14:47

Graphic videos on Twitter of the aftermath with bodies strewn in the ground.

One video of a woman with her legs blown off receiving treatment who reportedly died shortly after,

Missile debris looked like MLRS.

I won’t paste the links, but below is reported as one dud in an apartment which was struck.


ORAC 28th Feb 2022 15:04

Finland has announced it is sending lethal arms to Ukraine in support.

ORAC 28th Feb 2022 15:11

A thread from Professor Mike Martin (with links to his other threads) on where Europe, the USA and China go from here.


ORAC 28th Feb 2022 15:12

https://www.businessinsider.com/swit...nvasion-2022-2

Switzerland breaks neutral status to sanction Russia over Ukraine invasion

ORAC 28th Feb 2022 15:15

RUSI: The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...sian-air-force

Ripton 28th Feb 2022 15:35

It would appear that Putin isn't the only one talking utter nonsense for their domestic market.

At the request of the Ukrainian government, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has spoken to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, the Elysée palace has said in a statement:
The president reiterated the international community’s demand that [Russia] halt its offensive against Ukraine, and reaffirmed the necessity of immediately establishing a ceasefire.
With ceasefire talks between Kyiv and Moscow under way on the Belarus border, Macron also asked Putin to ensure that for the duration of the negotiations all strikes and attacks on civilians and their homes would be halted, civilian infrastructure would be preserved, and all main roads – particularly the road south out of Kyiv – would remain safe to use.

Putin “confirmed his willingness to commit to all three points”, the Elysée statement said.

Macron also called on Putin to ensure international humanitarian law was respected and civilian populations and aid transports protected, and asked the Russian president to “stay in touch over the coming days to avoid the situation worsening”.
Would any sane person believe Vlad committing to halt military action against civilians and civilian infrastructure after weeks of him telling us the troops were only on exercises and were not an invasion force?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...08f0ccfaeb0d05

ORAC 28th Feb 2022 15:37

As an aside I saw a wonderful quote this morning.

The report was on Russian special forces who have infiltrated Kyiv and are moving around looking for and marking targets.

One such was a group of Chechens in Ukrainian uniforms in a hijacked ambulance which was located and engaged by the Ukrainian army.

When asked what happened to the Chechens the official spokesman stated that they were: “A little bit interrogated, and a little bit shot”.

Presumably in that order…

Lonewolf_50 28th Feb 2022 15:40


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11192262)
RUSI: The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...sian-air-force

The article points out, near the end, that their use may be part of a different phase of the op. (Interesting points about deconfliction and blue on blue risks, as well as hours per year for the pilots). TBH, the combined arms approach is something I've assumed, but they seem to have decided that they are going to be Helo Heavy in the airspace over the FLOT/FEBA. Have they de emphasized the deep battle? One wonders.
Fighter sweeps/offensive CAP (with the initial efforts aimed at disabling of the Ukrainian AD / EW network); a question well raised.
An aspect I'd consider looking at is readiness rates and how many squadrons are needed for larger op areas, like the far east.
I don't think the Russians would strip their far eastern forces for this op which they (rightly or wrongly) believed to be a ground heavy operation with attack helicopter support.
Also interesting is the observation on the PGM. Makes me scratch my head, a bit.
If they used a lot of them in Syria a few years ago, how is it that the order book for replenishment hasn't already back filled the stockpiles?
It's not like the leadership can't direct the money there, is it?
There's a story I'd like to see told, though I doubt I'll ever see it.

Snyggapa 28th Feb 2022 15:49

The effects of cluster munitions in a residential area clearly visible here (nothing graphic, probably only a few cars trashed in this video but beyond reprehensible when these land where people are)

--link edited so preview hopefully not show. agree, disturbing if you watch it full screen

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498338694587203595


ORAC 28th Feb 2022 16:04

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-sat...152923545.html

Germany's Enercon on Monday said a "massive disruption" of satellite connections in Europe was affecting the operations of 5,800 wind turbines in central Europe. It said the satellite connections stopped working on Thursday, knocking out remote monitoring and control.

"The exact cause of the disruption is not yet known. The communication services failed almost simultaneously with the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Enercon said in a statement.

The company said it had no further information on who or what may have caused the disruption.

Enercon has informed Germany's cybersecurity watchdog BSI and is working with the relevant providers of the satellite communication networks to resolve the disruption, which it said affected around 30,000 satellite terminals used by companies and organisations from various sectors across Europe….

U.S.-listed satellite communications firm Viasat Inc said earlier on Monday it was investigating a suspected cyberattack that caused a partial outage in its residential broadband services in Ukraine and other European countries.

ORAC 28th Feb 2022 16:12

Latest attack in Kyiv seems to have been against a military C3 centre.


dead_pan 28th Feb 2022 16:19


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11192262)
RUSI: The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...sian-air-force

There's a couple of points missing from this analysis IMO. Firstly, fear of MANPADs (Afghan legacy?). They're aware Stinger is a formidable weapon in the right hands. From the footage I've seen almost everything seems to be at low-level. Second, from what I've read Russia has little in the way of tanking capability, and they probably won't want to risk this anywhere near Ukrainian airspace, so time on station for front-line kit will be limited, esp if they're having to scoot about at low-level.

SLXOwft 28th Feb 2022 16:22

Cluster Munitions are only illegal if used by a signatory to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, the UK, Ukraine, and most but not all EU countries are. The US, China, North Korea, Brazil, Cyprus, Turkey, Saudia Arabia and Russia are among those states which aren't. The US has argued that use of cluster weapons are less harmful to civilians in some situations "Because future adversaries will likely use civilian shields for military targets – for example by locating a military target on the roof of an occupied building – use of unitary weapons could result in more civilian casualties and damage than cluster munitions," ... "Blanket elimination of cluster munitions is therefore unacceptable due not only to negative military consequences but also due to potential negative consequences for civilians." Gordon Brown signed under heavy US pressure not to. There is a loophole which means the UK can allow the US to store cluster munitions on UK territory.

That is not to deny that as with all legal weapons it's the intent of the user that renders it a crime.

ORAC 28th Feb 2022 16:23

Russian SSBNs putting to sea in response to their raised alert state…


ORAC 28th Feb 2022 16:27

The future is a very weird place. Ukrainians are uploading videos on TikTok about how to drive abandoned or captured Russian military vehicles.…


dead_pan 28th Feb 2022 16:29


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11192282)
Also interesting is the observation on the PGM. Makes me scratch my head, a bit.
If they used a lot of them in Syria a few years ago, how is it that the order book for replenishment hasn't already back filled the stockpiles?
It's not like the leadership can't direct the money there, is it?
There's a story I'd like to see told, though I doubt I'll ever see it.

Maybe there were more interested in making everything look shiny and new for the benefit of the Russian people and their cheerleaders online?

I thought Russia was selective in their use of PGMs in Syria, possibly because they didn't have many to begin with, or maybe because they weren't that bothered about avoiding collateral damage.


All times are GMT. The time now is 17:32.


Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.