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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

tartare 10th Mar 2022 05:13


Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying (Post 11197596)
As for NFZ, there's AIM-120 ground launchers that could achieve the same result, but you have to be careful not to shoot your own aircraft. Not cheap compared to Javelin, Stinger and NLAW, but good for high altitude targets if that's the problem.

As long as the Ukrainians keep getting supplied with sufficient missiles, counter-battery and drones, Vlad will be digging himself into an ever deeper hole. At what point, if ever, will the missiles run Vlad out of armor and artillery?

Interesting - there are pictures online of a four pack of AIM-120s on the back of a Humvee.
My thoughts exactly.
If things continue this way - by proxy - NATO ends up taking a big chunk out of the arse of the Russian army and AirForce - without having fired a shot.
Keep the missiles of all kinds coming - and help the Turks deliver more drones...

Beamr 10th Mar 2022 05:25


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11197609)
Interesting - there are pictures online of a four pack of AIM-120s on the back of a Humvee.
My thoughts exactly.
If things continue this way - by proxy - NATO ends up taking a big chunk out of the arse of the Russian army and AirForce - without having fired a shot.
Keep the missiles of all kinds coming - and help the Turks deliver more drones...

To my understanding the humvee version was never actually sold anywhere, but the NASAMS would be available as it really is deployed in many countries even in europe. However, it needs the radar operation and training, it is not as simple as a stinger. It is no band aid for current situation unless some country provides the gear AND the operators.

Pali 10th Mar 2022 05:56

Why it is not such a great idea to impose NFZ at this stage is well explained in this interview with Air Marshal Philip Osbourn:

https://news.sky.com/video/share-12559056

M609 10th Mar 2022 06:35


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11197612)
To my understanding the humvee version was never actually sold anywhere, but the NASAMS would be available as it really is deployed in many countries even in europe. However, it needs the radar operation and training, it is not as simple as a stinger. It is no band aid for current situation unless some country provides the gear AND the operators.

Deployed with the Norwegian Army just a few weeks ago. Google Translate link

Beamr 10th Mar 2022 06:49


Originally Posted by M609 (Post 11197620)
Deployed with the Norwegian Army just a few weeks ago. Google Translate link

ok, that was news to me, thanks! However, if understood correctly, not yet really deployable in masses and training still underway. And equally requires more training than a stinger.
IMHO, ukrainians would be better off with buk's if anyone would be able to deliver, as they have the training and capacity to use them. They have zero to none time to learn new advanced weapons systems to help in this situation.

tartare 10th Mar 2022 07:09


Originally Posted by Pali (Post 11197616)
Why it is not such a great idea to impose NFZ at this stage is well explained in this interview with Air Marshal Philip Osbourn:

https://news.sky.com/video/share-12559056

That's a very insightful interview.
I hope the Air Marshall is right r/e advice of Putin's inner circle against use of tactical nuclear weapons.
An angry, aggrieved 69 year old despot backed into a corner and prepared to bomb maternity hospitals in full view of the world is very dangerous indeed.
Especially as the daily military humiliations mount.

dead_pan 10th Mar 2022 07:35

Insightful + impartial analysis of the military campaign so far:

Looks like they issue regular updates so worth a follow if you're on Tw*tter.

Tartiflette Fan 10th Mar 2022 08:12


Originally Posted by albatross (Post 11197574)
raine promising never too return. I highly doubt,however, that he will give up Crimea.

Smarter folks than I probably have much better ideas.

They may have some modifications around the edges, but I think what you outline is by far the most likely outcome. The exact status of Donbas will probably provide the edges.

melmothtw 10th Mar 2022 08:21

Has Su-57 entered the chat?


Tartiflette Fan 10th Mar 2022 08:34


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11197568)
M

EDIT: OK - I see - Patriot far too large, complex and expensive. Possibly also escalatory. So what's the smallest high altitude missile intercept system you could get away with?

Well Starstreak extends the threat to 20 000' per Wiki. Wouldn't that be sufficient to interrupt effective operations if the Russians are short of PGW as is widely speculated ? We simply don't know how many have been supplied and I have no idea how quickly re-supply can be manufactured- normally months I would imagine, unless every component supplier makes it highest priority;

Don't forget the Ukranians have S 300 systems which are supposedly good to 100 000' - question is, how many and how mobile are they ? I do recall seeing at least one kill attributed to to this early on in the war.

EDIT:

" Upgraded S-300PS SAMs were sent to the southern region of Ukraine in January. Sensing an attack by the Russians from Crimea, the deployment was prescient and likely bought the Ukrainians time defending the south. The Ukrainian military only has about 100 S-300 launchers in total, so the friendly forces had to make difficult decisions on where to deploy them.The Ukrainians also re-deployed a battalion of S-300s on February 11 to the Donbas region expecting a gnarly fight there. This unit is part of the 160th Air Defense Missile Brigade and was moved from the Odessa region."

admikar 10th Mar 2022 09:08


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11197496)
I hope the mothers of the sh*ts that shelled this see it and find out their child was responsible



https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....01bb67de7.jpeg

And they'll just claim unfortunate accident. And they won't be the first ones:
Excerpt from Wikipedia

Dragia Miović hospital bombing
At approximately 12:50 am local time on May 19, 1999, the University Hospital Center Dr Dragia Miović in Belgrade was destroyed by NATO l@ser-guided bombs. RTS listed the names of three patients killed. Seven soldiers of the Yugoslav Army were also killed in the hospital, although their names were listed separately from those of the three patients. NATO admitted that a missile was aimed at barracks in the Dedinje district, which is close to the hospital, went astray.

fab777 10th Mar 2022 09:17


Originally Posted by admikar (Post 11197683)
And they'll just claim unfortunate accident.]

Russia has a documented history of deliberately bombing hospitals.


Everything has been done before, targeting civilians, bombing hospitals, opening "evacuation corridor" and then shooting fleeing people. That is the soul of Russia.

pasta 10th Mar 2022 09:34

I half expected rt.com to claim that Ukraine had shelled their own hospital, but that's presumably too far-fetched even for them, so they're just not reporting it.

jolihokistix 10th Mar 2022 09:49

I have heard two completely opposing excuses put forcefully forwards for this by separate Putin supporters.

A. It was a deliberate and accurate attack on a military barracks that was once used as a hospital many years ago.
B. An example of some unfortunate and very rare collateral damage.

It can't be both, so which one is lying boldly?

WB627 10th Mar 2022 09:53


Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst (Post 11197555)
That makes no sense. Why would he care who started it? He would be dead. Along with everyone else.

Not saying he doesn’t want to go out in a bang, just that your logic makes no sense.

I agree, but we are sane and rational people, Putin is not.


Imagegear 10th Mar 2022 09:54

Looking a bit like a turkey shoot here...


IG

NutLoose 10th Mar 2022 10:32


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11197710)
I have heard two completely opposing excuses put forcefully forwards for this by separate Putin supporters.

A. It was a deliberate and accurate attack on a military barracks that was once used as a hospital many years ago.
B. An example of some unfortunate and very rare collateral damage.

It can't be both, so which one is lying boldly?

A. But we bussed in all these injured pregnant women for a photoshoot... give me a break

pasta 10th Mar 2022 10:35


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11197734)
Thats like saying we took out a block of flats because a soldier used to live there or destroyed a shop becuase soldiers were known to shop there.

Not really, it's more like saying we took out a military barracks, and didn't realise there were still civilians and newborn babies there from when it was a hospital many years ago.

NutLoose 10th Mar 2022 10:40

:sad:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-...amily-26431252

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe...5d8f7502519593


A Ukrainian man has shared the devastating way he found out his wife and three children had been slain by mortar fire as they tried to flee the city of Irpin on Monday — via Twitter.

Sergii Perebyinis, 43, has described the terrifying plight of his wife Tatiana, 43, and their children Mykyta, 18, and Alisa, nine, as they tried to escape Irpin for the capital, Kyiv.

When President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian forces to invade Ukraine late last month, Mr Perebyinis was in eastern Ukraine tending to his mother who was in poor health.

Tatiana and the two children were back home in Irpin when one evening, a shell shook their building.

Frightened by the attack, they ran to the basement.

t took two days for the mother and children to summon the courage to evacuate and head to the Ukrainian capital. But as they were loading up their mini van getting ready to go, they saw a Russian tank coming down their street so they decided to wait.

The next day, the family, along with a church volunteer, Anatoly Berezhnyi, 26, drove as far as they could in their mini van. After they could not drive any more, they decided to run for their lives across a damaged concrete bridge over the Irpin River where they were then killed by Russian forces. Their two suitcases, backpacks and case for their dog were found scattered beside them.

Learning of death of his family

Mr Perebyinis had been attempting to locate his wife’s location on his phone. He had a gut feeling that something had gone awry when the application showed that the phone was at Clinical Hospital No. 7 hospital in Kyiv. He tried his wife and his children’s numbers but no one was returning his calls.

Half an hour later, Mr Perebyinis opened Twitter and viewed a post that said that a family of Ukrainians had been killed on a bridge in Irpin. Then, he saw another post which contained an image with luggage.

“I recognised the luggage and that is how I knew,” he told the New York Times on March 9.

Mr Perebyinis explained that he had spoken to his wife the night before about her plans to leave and apologised that he was not by her side.

“I told her, ‘Forgive me that I couldn’t defend you’,” he said. “‘I tried to care for one person, and it meant I cannot protect you’.

“She said, ‘Don’t worry, I will get out’.”

Mr Perebyinis told the New York Times that his employer, software company SE Ranking, had implored its employees to evacuate immediately from Ukraine and had provided them with emergency funds to do so.

But Ms Perebyinis opted to stay because she did not know how her ailing mother with Alzheimer’s disease would flee and her 18-year-old son wished to remain in the country so he could defend it if needed.

A colleague of Mr Perebyinis, Anastasia Avetysian, said that she had been in contact with Ms Perebyinis about the family’s evacuation.

“We were all in touch with her,” Ms Avetysian told the New York Times. “Even when she was hiding in the basement, she was optimistic and joking in our group chat that the company would now need to do a special operation to get them out, like Saving Private Ryan.”

After his family did not survive, Mr Perebyinis vowed to ensure the world knew what was going on Ukraine and that his family’s deaths were not in vain.

He said this was not the first time that his family were displaced because of an invasion.

In 2014, the Perebyinis were living in Donetsk but moved to Ukraine to rebuild their lives after conflict there.



NutLoose 10th Mar 2022 10:42


Originally Posted by pasta (Post 11197737)
Not really, it's more like saying we took out a military barracks, and didn't realise there were still civilians and newborn babies there from when it was a hospital many years ago.

You beat me to my edit.


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