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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 17th Mar 2023, 12:24
  #15421 (permalink)  
 
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Re above. I wouldn't discount anything. These ships will have a main cargo, (lumber etc.) and every spare inch, including the decks will be used for extra revenue, such as cars.
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 12:32
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
“Banned” by whom? Some countries have agreed not to use them, but what entity can ban them, and what authority does such a ban have?

UKR is using these munitions on their own territory, not someone else’s and will have the unenviable task of cleaning up after.
Until then they fighting for survival.

Assuming Wikipedia has it right, The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) is an international treaty that prohibits all use, transfer, production, and stockpiling of cluster bombs, a type of explosive weapon which scatters submunitions ("bomblets") over an area

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conven...ster_Munitions

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Old 17th Mar 2023, 12:41
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Originally Posted by golfbananajam
Assuming Wikipedia has it right, The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) is an international treaty that prohibits all use, transfer, production, and stockpiling of cluster bombs, a type of explosive weapon which scatters submunitions ("bomblets") over an area

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conven...ster_Munitions
Did you miss the conveniently placed list of signatories at the bottom of that page?
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 13:55
  #15424 (permalink)  
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Well worth a read….

Leader of the nazi group Rusich reveals that in his inspection of the so-called "Surovikin line" of defence in Zaporizhzhia, he found a large number of inconsistencies and issues that pose a threat to its defenders. He says the line is built by civilians using old maps, often going through lowlands. Anti-tank ditches are on the wrong side of ridges, allowing the enemy to quickly accumulate on the other side. Trenches are missing drainage or cover against drones. No dirt roads are built close enough to deliver ammunition.

It's a long post, the translation is on 4 screenshots below, but worth the read.​​​​​​​

https://threadreaderapp.com/convos/1636450410067099648
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 14:32
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From Newsweek today:
In an update on Thursday, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said that 1,040 Russian troops had been killed over the previous 24 hours. This took its estimate of the total number of Russian troop losses since the start of the war to 162,560.

The update also said that Russia had lost 12 tanks and 11 armored vehicles the previous day. This put the total number of tank losses to 3,504 over the course of the war and the number of armored vehicle losses at 6,810, according to Kyiv.

Kyiv first started reporting more than 1,000 Russian daily deaths in February, a figure which has been surpassed several times. However, Ukraine's tally of Russian personnel losses is higher than Western estimates. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in February that in the first year of the war, there were approximately 70,000 Russian combat fatalities.
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 14:46
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Drone intimidation

I see that FORTE 10, the Global Hawk, is well south of its habitual track over the Black Sea, so the Ruso attack on the Reaper seems to have worked for them
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 17:00
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Well worth a read….



Leader of the nazi group Rusich reveals that in his inspection of the so-called "Surovikin line" of defence in Zaporizhzhia, he found a large number of inconsistencies and issues that pose a threat to its defenders. He says the line is built by civilians using old maps, often going through lowlands. Anti-tank ditches are on the wrong side of ridges, allowing the enemy to quickly accumulate on the other side. Trenches are missing drainage or cover against drones. No dirt roads are built close enough to deliver ammunition.

It's a long post, the translation is on 4 screenshots below, but worth the read.​​​​​​​

https://threadreaderapp.com/convos/1636450410067099648
The trench line I saw they had dug, they dumped the spoils on the Ukrainian side which would come in handy for backfilling it on top of the Russians with a bulldozer bladed tank. Just push it in, turn and run along the edge shoving it all back in.
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 17:01
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
I see that FORTE 10, the Global Hawk, is well south of its habitual track over the Black Sea, so the Ruso attack on the Reaper seems to have worked for them
How do you know where it is? Because the operators want you to know . . .
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 17:06
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Originally Posted by golfbananajam
Assuming Wikipedia has it right, The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) is an international treaty that prohibits all use, transfer, production, and stockpiling of cluster bombs, a type of explosive weapon which scatters submunitions ("bomblets") over an area

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conven...ster_Munitions
Sure, but it only applies to signatories, which I think, neither Ukraine nor Russia are. Secondly, whether you like the idea or not, UKR is/wants to use them on their own soil to defend themselves from a criminal aggressor. Not the same as CBW or other weapons of mass destruction.
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 17:09
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
Sure, but it only applies to signatories, which I think, neither Ukraine nor Russia are. Secondly, whether you like the idea or not, UKR is/wants to use them on their own soil to defend themselves from a criminal aggressor. Not the same as CBW or other weapons of mass destruction.
They don't want to use them as cluster bombs. They want to disassemble them and use the bomblets on their drones.

Originally Posted by Ninthace
How do you know where it is?
FR 24
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 17:21
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[QUOTE=Sfojimbo;11403979]They don't want to use them as cluster bombs. They want to disassemble them and use the bomblets on their drones.
/QUOTE]

AFAIK they have asked for intact cluster-bombs from the US and have been turned down. Asking for dis-assembled parts is the back-up to get more anti-armour ammo for their drones.
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 17:23
  #15432 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ine-war-crimes

ICC judges issue arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over alleged war crimes

Arrest warrants issued for Russian leader and his children’s rights commissioner for ‘unlawful deportation’ of Ukrainian children
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 17:28
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Originally Posted by Sfojimbo
They don't want to use them as cluster bombs. They want to disassemble them and use the bomblets on their drones.
AFAIK they have asked for intact cluster-bombs from the US and have been turned down. Asking for dis-assembled parts is the back-up to get more anti-armour ammo for their drones.
That's as far as you know. Others know different.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ns-use-drones/

Do you think they would blatantly lie to their biggest benefactor?

Then there is the question of how would they deliver them when Russia has air dominance over the battlespace?

Last edited by Sfojimbo; 17th Mar 2023 at 17:50.
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 17:32
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Wagner have put a Euro 15 million bounty on the head of the Italian Ministry of Defence, lets hope the world starts to return the favour.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...ad/ar-AA18I432
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 18:05
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Originally Posted by Sfojimbo
FR 24
No, the answer is because the operator wants you to know.
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 18:22
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Originally Posted by Ohrly
No, the answer is because the operator wants you to know.
I think you are confusing the "how" and the "why".
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 18:23
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Cool

Originally Posted by Ohrly
No, the answer is because the operator wants you to know.
And obviously USAF only has one RQ-4.
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 18:42
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
How do you know where it is? Because the operators want you to know . . .
Of course, I know that but my point is that is staying away from the bit of airspace that the Rusos claim nobody should be in, even though it is open airspace that the RAF often uses as well as the usual route of FORTE. So the Rusos seem to have scared off the US operator exactly as they wanted.
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 19:20
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
Of course, I know that but my point is that is staying away from the bit of airspace that the Rusos claim nobody should be in, even though it is open airspace that the RAF often uses as well as the usual route of FORTE. So the Rusos seem to have scared off the US operator exactly as they wanted.
Since you have no idea what the mission was that is just guesswork.
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Old 17th Mar 2023, 19:32
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
So the Rusos seem to have scared off the US operator exactly as they wanted.
You know where one US ISR aircraft is because the US air force is publicising where it is. You have know idea if or where other aircraft are operating. The US has a pretty good idea of what intelligence it and its allies need and how they can get it. If they think they need a new strategy then that is fine. If they think they need to send a quiet message to Russia that you and I will never hear about then that is fine too. The US is not interested in escalation, and not all responses need to be (or should be) in the public domain. The US strategy in Ukraine is delivering results that would have been unimaginable a year or two back and they certainly don't need a distraction from events in Ukraine like the other side does.
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