Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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BDIM, in other posts you've said you work at a high level in defence, have privileged insight, and that NATO and allies are drawing this out in order to deplete Russia's war capacity. That seems entirely reasonable - whether true or not.
But this new assessment doesn't seem reasonable at all. If Russia takes out a major Western city, by whatever means, the notion that the free world at that point meakly surrenders seems ... far fetched. In fact the whole plot does. I'm guessing this is your own personal speculation, rather than further insight from the inner sanctum of defence leadership?
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But this new assessment doesn't seem reasonable at all. If Russia takes out a major Western city, by whatever means, the notion that the free world at that point meakly surrenders seems ... far fetched. In fact the whole plot does. I'm guessing this is your own personal speculation, rather than further insight from the inner sanctum of defence leadership?
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Re: your 2nd point, yes, as I said it is schoolboy speculation. I personally do believe Putin would use nukes before losing the war, and agree with others that he won’t want to pollute Ukraine. He will want to punish the West, and if he is about to lose the war anyway, I don’t think he will be overly troubled by the consequences.
All my opinion, nothing more. I am often wrong and desperately hope this is one of those times 🤞.
A lot depends on the truth regarding his mental health. He comes across as calm and collected on the exterior but that can't possibly match what's between his ears.
Actually, I think it does. He's a trained KGB agent, used to acting calm and collected on the outside. In the KGB, he would have been involved in things that would numb him emotionally. Cold, calculating, ruthless....but not crazy.
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Hannibal Lecter also came across as a calm and collected individual, but I wouldn’t let him anywhere near set of steak knives.
I''m with Xeptu here and this has been discussed earlier in depth in this thread. The assumption is that Ukraine stops at its legitimate borders. Biden made it very clear that if Z-ombies start throwing even the tiniest of nukes, the U.S. will take a stand. Not necessarily by nukes initially but maybe with overwhelming conventional weapons. Call it gloves off if you like. No more Vipers to Ukraine but everything that U.S. has that flies, with crews and things that go bang.
If the Z-team continues tossing NBC's, then there's the rest of the strategic arsenal.
Also that would mean most probably that China gets upset: who would trust a neighbour sending nukes cross the border? It would pretty much quarantee total isolation from the rest of the world.
If V.V.Putin is stupid enough to send a loud and radiating message to a NATO country it would without a doubt mean article 5 activation and at that point it would be game over, maybe for mankind but in any case for Putin and his regime.. NATO joining the war is meaning opening an entirely new front to which Russia has no equipment nor troops to put against. The barracks from Murmansk all the way down to Kaliningrad has been exhausted of troops already. To emphasize the situation we can take the elite spearhead of Russian army that Russia (and Soviet Union) has planned to use as elite counterforce repelling NATO attack, the 1st Guards Tank Army. It was destroyed north of Kyiv a year ago by Ukrainian forces.
But sending a covert ship up Thames turning London into glass and not claiming the quilt? I am sorry but that's a bit too much Hollywood for me. It would not be a subtle reminder nor could it be denied and it would inevitably lead to all of NATO joining the war with the result as above.
Putin may be mad and all that, but I bet that even he is not that stupid to use NBC's. Not over Ukraine. And even in Russia there is a chain of command and events to follow for the nukes tobe launched and the hope is that sanity prevails in there. But the message has been sent to Moscow that at minimum they'll find out why the U.S. is ranked the most powerful army in the world if they use WMD's.
If the Z-team continues tossing NBC's, then there's the rest of the strategic arsenal.
Also that would mean most probably that China gets upset: who would trust a neighbour sending nukes cross the border? It would pretty much quarantee total isolation from the rest of the world.
If V.V.Putin is stupid enough to send a loud and radiating message to a NATO country it would without a doubt mean article 5 activation and at that point it would be game over, maybe for mankind but in any case for Putin and his regime.. NATO joining the war is meaning opening an entirely new front to which Russia has no equipment nor troops to put against. The barracks from Murmansk all the way down to Kaliningrad has been exhausted of troops already. To emphasize the situation we can take the elite spearhead of Russian army that Russia (and Soviet Union) has planned to use as elite counterforce repelling NATO attack, the 1st Guards Tank Army. It was destroyed north of Kyiv a year ago by Ukrainian forces.
But sending a covert ship up Thames turning London into glass and not claiming the quilt? I am sorry but that's a bit too much Hollywood for me. It would not be a subtle reminder nor could it be denied and it would inevitably lead to all of NATO joining the war with the result as above.
Putin may be mad and all that, but I bet that even he is not that stupid to use NBC's. Not over Ukraine. And even in Russia there is a chain of command and events to follow for the nukes tobe launched and the hope is that sanity prevails in there. But the message has been sent to Moscow that at minimum they'll find out why the U.S. is ranked the most powerful army in the world if they use WMD's.
Right now, any bucket of sunshine getting popped is going to be attributed to Count Vlad, it could say "Made in North Korea" and "Greetings from our Dear Leader" with pictures of a dude with a curious hair cut pushing the big red button, and it would still be put down to V.V.Pukin.
There is an assumption that the US and NATO response to the Kremlin using NBC would be conventional, and focused within Ukraine to evict the overstayers. That would be both irrational and inappropriate for an attack on a NATO country arising from a hissy fit of a criminal leader who stuffed up "biggly". That would be worthy of lots of popcorn, and SPF 1M, welding googles etc. If Puking wishes to make our home planet as appealing in real estate as the moon is, then the people that can actually stop him aren't sitting in Bonn or Washington, they are standing in the streets of Moscow.
If the West continues to suggest a less than direct response to Vlad, we are increasing the risk of a reckless act, that gets to the same place...
Interesting times.
Has anyone been watching Putin vs The West on BBC? (Episode 2 tonight if anyone is interested). That very point was made about him in Episode 1. He's a risk taker, but a calculated risk taker. In that respect he's perfectly rational
Not in Ukraine but most definitely associated to the war: this morning Sweden has placed Patriot system to the port of Gothenburg.
"This is not an exercise. we are increasing the preparedness" comments the press manager of Swedish Armed Forces.
Although they also say that there is no change in the threat evaluation or threat risk against Sweden.
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a...ion-i-goteborg
"This is not an exercise. we are increasing the preparedness" comments the press manager of Swedish Armed Forces.
Although they also say that there is no change in the threat evaluation or threat risk against Sweden.
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a...ion-i-goteborg
I suspect that there may be more than one individual posting as user racedo, because the writing style has changed over time (as has the user's location, which was once "Darkest Surrey") but I am quite sure that the mother tongue of the poster is not English, based on some oddities of English phraseology which are characteristic of native speakers of Slavic languages - such as misuse of definite and indefinite articles. That is not to say that the demonstrated fluency in English is anything but admirable, and a credit to the Department for Language Support at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Moscow.
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She's got a nasty twitch there and i can totally understand why, brave girl..
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She's got a nasty twitch there and i can totally understand why, brave girl..
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...43071512788992
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...43071512788992
In time you get used to anything I guess.
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Yes, I must admit seeing her step backwards towards that wall of glass, I hoped the hell it wasn’t a close hit as she would have been shredded.
I sometimes feel this is the most important thing that is happening in the world in our generation and has the ability to destroy everything and everyone in the beautiful World we inhabit, hence why I try to keep this thread relevant, at the top of the forum and current, though I do wonder sometimes when one see people are more interested in Williams bloody hat!
I sometimes feel this is the most important thing that is happening in the world in our generation and has the ability to destroy everything and everyone in the beautiful World we inhabit, hence why I try to keep this thread relevant, at the top of the forum and current, though I do wonder sometimes when one see people are more interested in Williams bloody hat!
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Defense companies in Switzerland are currently struggling to receive new contracts with every company in the industry reporting they have already lost at least 1 to 2 contracts because of the “neutrality” claim.
https://t.co/E2aBAjQ5ZN
https://t.co/E2aBAjQ5ZN
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It always surprised me how a Country can be a major ams supplier and neutral at the same time.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...up-2023-02-06/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...up-2023-02-06/
Last edited by NutLoose; 6th Feb 2023 at 21:49.
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Defense companies in Switzerland are currently struggling to receive new contracts with every company in the industry reporting they have already lost at least 1 to 2 contracts because of the “neutrality” claim.
https://t.co/E2aBAjQ5ZN
https://t.co/E2aBAjQ5ZN
Yes, I must admit seeing her step backwards towards that wall of glass, I hoped the hell it wasn’t a close hit as she would have been shredded.
I sometimes feel this is the most important thing that is happening in the world in our generation and has the ability to destroy everything and everyone in the beautiful World we inhabit, hence why I try to keep this thread relevant, at the top of the forum and current, though I do wonder sometimes when one see people are more interested in Williams bloody hat!
I sometimes feel this is the most important thing that is happening in the world in our generation and has the ability to destroy everything and everyone in the beautiful World we inhabit, hence why I try to keep this thread relevant, at the top of the forum and current, though I do wonder sometimes when one see people are more interested in Williams bloody hat!