Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,068
Received 2,938 Likes
on
1,252 Posts
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64455123
Good journalism from the BBC. After defeating the initial occupation force and inflicting heavy casualties on Wagner, they're now fighting the formidable regular Russian forces. Hope they get everything they need for their biggest fight yet.
Good journalism from the BBC. After defeating the initial occupation force and inflicting heavy casualties on Wagner, they're now fighting the formidable regular Russian forces. Hope they get everything they need for their biggest fight yet.
The following 2 users liked this post by NutLoose:
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,068
Received 2,938 Likes
on
1,252 Posts
Red lights, what red lights, we are the occupying force... I would imagine that insurance will not come into that anywhere.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,068
Received 2,938 Likes
on
1,252 Posts
I've just finished the largely unfunny Try Not to Laugh, Sergeant Major (Futura Publications, 1984), written about the Cold War British Forces in Germany and the Soviet threat. Excerpts from Chapter 19 might make interesting reading:
It (the Russian military) is an army the like of which the world has never seen before, an army that grossly outnumbers NATO and is better equipped than it was believed to be a few short years ago. Further on, The Western concept of attacking well-defended areas is that you need to outnumber the defenders by three to one, or at least two to one. The Soviets have a completely different textbook. They work on the sledgehammer principle, which means throwing in odds of between seven and eight to one. A senior officer with the American forces to the south of 1 British Corps said coldly: It is no secret that the Soviets have the men and will to fight in exactly this way. We have little doubt that they would treat the initial loss of one third of their combat force as acceptable.
It (the Russian military) is an army the like of which the world has never seen before, an army that grossly outnumbers NATO and is better equipped than it was believed to be a few short years ago. Further on, The Western concept of attacking well-defended areas is that you need to outnumber the defenders by three to one, or at least two to one. The Soviets have a completely different textbook. They work on the sledgehammer principle, which means throwing in odds of between seven and eight to one. A senior officer with the American forces to the south of 1 British Corps said coldly: It is no secret that the Soviets have the men and will to fight in exactly this way. We have little doubt that they would treat the initial loss of one third of their combat force as acceptable.
The following users liked this post:
The following users liked this post:
To digress, I am curious how he ever intends to make money. That is a big garage. I am sure he has it figured out but I would not imagine there is normally a great market for Leopard fire control systems.
It seems the the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) is on its way
This precision weapon with 150 km range and a 125 lb warhead should provide another major head-ache for Russian commanders. They have apparently moved arms depots back out of HIMARS range ( 80 km ) but will now be faced with the problem of moving them again, or risk losing them. Another move will be a major undertaking in winter weather, and, of course, will have a tremendous impact on re-supply if it has to be shipped in on trucks from that far back. Since these are rather cheap missiles ( $ 40K I believe ) they will hopefully receive sufficient quantities to allow them to hammer munitions, fuel dumps, and command centres and disrupt the major Russian offensive that seems to be mooted by many journalists currently.
What do you think ? Will they take all this talk as sufficient proof and act pre-emptively, or wait until their stores depots start exploding around their ears ?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-rea...es-2023-01-31/
What do you think ? Will they take all this talk as sufficient proof and act pre-emptively, or wait until their stores depots start exploding around their ears ?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-rea...es-2023-01-31/
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
General Atomics is offering to sell Ukraine 2 Reaper MQ-9 for just one dollar.
But the deal would also requires Ukraine to spend about $10ml to prepare and ship the aircraft to Ukraine, and a further $8m per year for maintenance and sustainment of the aircraft - WSJ
I presume that means that they will provide in country support.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-com...at-11675203260
But the deal would also requires Ukraine to spend about $10ml to prepare and ship the aircraft to Ukraine, and a further $8m per year for maintenance and sustainment of the aircraft - WSJ
I presume that means that they will provide in country support.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-com...at-11675203260
You have to supply these numbers. Currently we are seeing them failing supplying a tiny fraction of those troops and tanks. And this in flat wide open terrain. And very close to own territory. And their own Rail Hubs. With their own Rail Gauge (different from the one in Poland and further West).
An invasion into Western Europe would have posed various challenges Orders of magnitude bigger than those they are facing currently in Ukraine. Squeezing 30.000 tanks through Fulda Gap over a handful of routes through hilly terrain with heavy and well equipped opposition (5000 vastly superior tanks, 1000 vastly superior Attack helicopters + hundreds of nimble Anti Tank helicopters, formidable/superior Air Forces with AWACS support over home territory, ground troops with numerous and powerful ATGM, etc. pp in hilly and wooded terrain with many villages en route) and keeping them fueled, armed and fed and coordinating them and communicating with them and preventing the burnt wrecks of the first 5.000 to 10.000 tanks from blocking those routes alone would surely have been an epic headache. Especially in an Army that is fully dependent on Top- Down Orders.
On paper this all reads menacing and impressive. As big numbers always do. I somehow have ever so slight doubts it would have worked out as planned, though.
The following users liked this post:
Well, that depends on your interpretation. There have already been "stray missile, or a deliberate attack " and these have been examined and been judged not to be serious enough to make a bigger deal about them. Until one is judged to be worthy of more severe sanction, we remain in abeyance.
I know, as does everyone, that there have been stray missiles and deliberate attacks, but my statement was that there will be one, at some point, THAT CANNOT BE IGNORED. The West gas shrugged off everything so far because it does not fit the plan.
The West have shown that we are terrified of Putin. We are like the puppy that is brought into a new home where an old dog already lives. We run around and display our energy and ability, but never near him, in case he bites. We stay at a distance, but as confidence grows, we slowly get closer, pushing the boundaries but always mindful of not going do far as to trigger a reaction…
Ukraine is fighting for not only it’s existence, but also for ours. The time to go all in was months ago, but Western governments want Russias military worn down at the cost of Ukrainian blood, before they will contemplate allowing Ukraine to win.
HIMARS .. no way…until we knew it was essential to prevent Ukraine losing. Then given.
Tanks…no way…until we knew it was essential to stop Ukraine losing. Then given.
Fighters…you get the idea.
The following users liked this post:
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
BREAKING: Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russia now has more than 320,000 soldiers in the country, roughly twice the size of Russia's initial invasion force - NYT
As others have mentioned, this is the time for longer range HIMARS to disrupt logistics, as that seems to be a key weak point with the Russkies. The Kerch bridge is another tempting target. A massive HIMARS attack on rail centers, ammo dumps, bridges, etc. would seem to be a useful event in the near future. The frustration Ukraine must experience not being able to attack past their borders must be intense.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,068
Received 2,938 Likes
on
1,252 Posts
As others have mentioned, this is the time for longer range HIMARS to disrupt logistics, as that seems to be a key weak point with the Russkies. The Kerch bridge is another tempting target. A massive HIMARS attack on rail centers, ammo dumps, bridges, etc. would seem to be a useful event in the near future. The frustration Ukraine must experience not being able to attack past their borders must be intense.
The time was before those 320,000 were in country, the bridge if you bother to look at the Kerch thread has one lane open, the other is nearly done and the repairs are ongoing to the rail lines, the time to have hit that was when they were transporting the new sections along the bridge and hit the cranes as they attempted to lower them in place. Again all too bloody late in making the means available. You try to get civilian workers to move and rebuild the bridge under fire.
As for ammo dumps, Russia learnt to move the rail hubs out of HIMAR range, they should have had the long range weapons available to allow Russia to get those just established and stockpiled before surprising them and lighting up the place, again to late.
There are one people that truly know what is needed and when and they are the Ukrainians, sitting on your fingers and twiddling your thumbs for months after a request goes in isn’t a decisive war winning strategy. This should be seen months in advance by the west and acted upon.
Tanks, while the dithering was going on, do we or do we not send them, regardless of that outcome, Ukrainians should have been in training and tanks brought up to operational readiness so the minute the decision was taken the tanks could have rolled into Ukraine with crews to man them, not making the ohh we will send them, but we need to ready them and train your crews first
And again, the rail hubs and the supply lines, I keep wittering on about this, but the Ukrainian gains have been made by hitting the ammo, food and fuel supplies prior to advancing, HIMARS allowed that, and it was effective in starving those troops fighting of needed equipment, ammo, fuel and reserves, the fact they have shifted them out of range means Russia has been able to build up those 350,000 troops in theatre, the starving of the Ukrainians of long range weapons has allowed this to happen. WHY?
Has Ukraine not followed out everything requested by the West of them in not hitting those targets in Russia with the weapons already supplied, no matter how tempting?, have they not shown their worth?, have they not shown their integrity in sticking to those limitations? For God sake give them the Jets, give them the Armour, give them the missiles, give them long range weapons and above all…. Give them a chance!
I sometimes wonder if the west wants to win this war.
…
Last edited by NutLoose; 2nd Feb 2023 at 04:36.
The following 6 users liked this post by NutLoose:
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
The Guardian:
Kyiv warns of Russian mobilisation on eastern border
Russia is planning a major offensive to coincide with the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine on 24 February, according to the country’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov.
Speaking to French media, Reznikov warned that Russia would call on a large contingent of mobilised troops.
Referring to Russia’s general mobilisation of 300,000 conscripted soldiers in September last year, he claimed that numbers at the border suggest the true size could be closer to 500,000.
“We do not underestimate our enemy,” Reznikov said. “Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments it is much more.”…
On Wednesday evening, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russian forces were trying to make gains that they could show on the February anniversary of their invasion, and issued a dire account of the situation in the eastern province of Donetsk.
“A definite increase has been noted in the offensive operations of the occupiers on the front in the east of our country. The situation has become tougher,” Zelenskiy said in a video address.
Reznikov said the offensive would probably be concentrated in two areas: the country’s east, which has seen heavy fighting over recent weeks; and the south.
“We think that, given that [Russia] lives in symbolism, they will try to try something around February 24.”
Kyiv warns of Russian mobilisation on eastern border
Russia is planning a major offensive to coincide with the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine on 24 February, according to the country’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov.
Speaking to French media, Reznikov warned that Russia would call on a large contingent of mobilised troops.
Referring to Russia’s general mobilisation of 300,000 conscripted soldiers in September last year, he claimed that numbers at the border suggest the true size could be closer to 500,000.
“We do not underestimate our enemy,” Reznikov said. “Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments it is much more.”…
On Wednesday evening, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russian forces were trying to make gains that they could show on the February anniversary of their invasion, and issued a dire account of the situation in the eastern province of Donetsk.
“A definite increase has been noted in the offensive operations of the occupiers on the front in the east of our country. The situation has become tougher,” Zelenskiy said in a video address.
Reznikov said the offensive would probably be concentrated in two areas: the country’s east, which has seen heavy fighting over recent weeks; and the south.
“We think that, given that [Russia] lives in symbolism, they will try to try something around February 24.”
If Russia lives in symbolism, perhaps Ukraine could arrange a warm surprise in advance for them.
Last edited by jolihokistix; 2nd Feb 2023 at 07:44.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
HMMWV with stinger anti-aircraft missiles. On board, 12 marks are visible, meaning 12 hit targets by this crew.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b2024817.html
https://khpg.org/en/1462833443
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/boris-jo...raine-war-6338
Only in 2018 did he start to backtrack on his mendacity
https://www.gov.uk/government/speech...-boris-johnson
Johnson is - and always has been - a repeated liar who will say anything for money, power, and to further his own interests. And he has been repeatedly sacked for this dreadful behavior, most recently by the Cons.
The following 2 users liked this post by petit plateau: